Last week, my clients and I cashed a ticket betting against Air Force as a favorite, despite
the fact that Wyoming didn’t score a single point. This week, I expect to cash a
ticket betting on Air Force with the exact same rationale – they are the underdogs,
catching double-digits. Air Force doesn’t lose games by margin. Their three losses
this season have all come by a touchdown or less. This year’s defense is better than
any Air Force stop unit in the last decade. Through seven games, Troy Calhoun’s
squad has yet to allow more than 20 points in any contest, shutting down potent offenses
like Navy and TCU in the process. The Falcons have hung tough with the Utes
repeatedly in over the last four seasons. They won outright on their last visit to Salt
Lake City and lost by three, seven and three in the other meetings. And Air Force
continues to win the turnover battle every single week, leading the nation in turnover
margin. The Falcons were +13 in turnovers last year and +10 the previous year
– Calhoun’s teams have an offense that doesn’t make mistakes and a defense that
has far more playmakers than we’re used to seeing. Expect another tight ball game
GAME: Penn St. @ Michigan Oct 24, 2009 3:30PM SPORT: College Football Picks PICK: Penn St.Offered at: -4.5 WSEXREASON FOR PICK: 4* #353 PENN STATE over MICHIGAN
Last week in cashing an easy 4* Under ticket vs. Minnesota, we extolled the virtues of a Penn State defense that has been putting up some special numbers. We go back to the well for more of the same, but this time using Joe Paterno’s team as a Side to get the money.
Yes, the Nittany Lion schedule has been weak so far. But having allowed an average of 15.4 points and 291 yards per game from 2006-08, there was ample evidence of what the current SR class could do against much tougher competition. And they are doing what they are supposed to do vs. lesser offenses, shutting them down. They have only allowed two field goals in the first half through seven games; just one TD in the third quarter; and three of the four TD’s allowed in the fourth quarter came in games in which they were leading by at least 21 points. The numbers could have been even more dominating had they been going hard for the full 60 minutes, and that is what we are going to see here, especially with MLB Sean Lee back to full health. There may not be a better LB tandem in the nation than Lee and Navorro Bowman, and it is that line of defense that is so important against the spread options schemes of Michigan.
The Wolverines have been able to make some dynamic things happen with young Tate Forcier at QB, but that is creating the wrong impression in the marketplace, and we believe the cart is far ahead of the horse in terms of the rebuilding process under Rich Rodriguez. Consider that they were +24 at Happy Valley LY, and lost 46-17 to Penn State in a game in which the Lions rolled off 39 consecutive points in one stretch, holding a commanding edge of 191 yards in total offense. Has this much of the gap been made up? Hardly. Michigan was just a bounce away from losing to both Notre Dame and Indiana, and one big play away from the Michigan State loss being a 14-point drubbing, instead of the close overtime final score that was posted. And in the only real challenge against a first-rate defense the Wolverines turned the ball over five times in losing at Iowa. Now a savvy defense that has seen this playbook before will be attacking Forcier to make his reads difficult, and we can expect similar problems again.
What we will also see is the Penn State offense begin to show more layers. This group has largely been held under wraps, with one of the keys to the attack, the mobility of QB Darryl Clark, a non-factor until now. Because there is precious little experience behind him, Paterno has been hesitant to have Clark carry the ball himself when games were under control. As such, a play has only finished with him being tackled with the ball 27 times, after he ran for 282 yards and 10 TD’s LY. We will see that begin to change as the games become more important. This is just such a game in their minds, and a Michigan defense that does not show a strength anywhere (64th in Total Defense, 58th against the Run, 80th in Passing yards allowed, and 86th in Sacks) can be kept on their heels throughout. That makes this a short pointspread for a team that has gone 4-1 ATS as a Big 10 road favorite the past two seasons, and has the polish to be in command of the proceedings.
Teddy Cover or Malinsky College picks
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