Play Title ***THE BIG ONE*** Burns' BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Play Selected Point Spread: -20.5/-110
I'm laying the points with USC. I had a big play (2008 Sept. GOM) on Oregon State when the Beavers upset the Trojans last season. I'll admit that I didn't call for the outright upset. However, I did feel the number was much too high, for a game at Corvallis. Not only is this season's rematch being played in Southern California, but we've actually got a lower number to work with. With the Trojans coming in with "payback" on their minds, I feel that lower number provides us excellent value on the favorite. USC doesn't lose too many games - the Beavers were the only ones to beat them last year. This season's loss at Washington nothwithstanding, the Trojans don't lose many conference road games either. When they do, they almost always avenge those losses when they host the team the following season. Prior to last year's loss at Oregon State, the Trojans last Pac-10 road loss was at Oregon in 2007. Last year, the Trojans hosted the Ducks and won 44-10 as 16 point favorites! In 2006, they lost at UCLA and at Oregon State. In 2007, when hosting those teams, they won by a combined score of 48-10. That included a 24-3 win and cover over the Beavers, as 15 point favorites. Including that victory, the Trojans are a perfect 21-0 the last 21 times that they hosted the Beavers. The last three of those victories all came by a minimum of three touchdowns, each also resulting in a pointspread win. Including the 24-3 win here in 2007, the Trojans beat the Beavers by a score of 52-28 here in 2005 and 22-0 here in 2003. While the Trojans haven't been blowing their opponents out quite as much as they have in past years, their 30-3 victory at California (vs. a really good Bears team) proved that they're still fully capable of crushing teams, when properly motivated and when everything is clicking. Despite playing a relatively difficult schedule, the defense ranks in the top 5 in the country and allows a mere 2.1 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards overall. Meanwhile, the offense put up 500 yards and 34 points last week with QB Barkley, who was out in USC's lone loss, threw for 380 yards. Pete Carroll had this to say of his young quarterback: "I think you see Matt Barkley is really something. I love him, the way he plays, battles, competes, the plays he's capable of making. There's no limit." I expect the Trojans defense to do a MUCH better job stopping the run and also for Barkley to build off last week's big game. I also expect Carroll to "keep the pedal to the metal" the whole way, leading to a convincing win and cover. *10 Blowout GOY