Now just one victory away from a return trip to the World Series, the Phillies give the ball to last year’s postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.46 ERA) in Game 5 of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park. With their season on the line, the Dodgers turn to Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.46).
With the Phillies trailing 4-3 and down to their last out in Game 4 on Monday, Jimmy Rollins ripped a two-run double off L.A. closer Jonathan Broxton to give Philadelphia a stunning 5-4 victory. Tonight, the defending world champs will attempt to knock the Dodgers out of the NLCS in five games for the second consecutive season.
The Dodgers are still 6-3 in their last Nine games and are on additional positive surges of 5-2 as an underdog and 40-18 after a loss, but they’re 1-6 in their last seven on the highway, 3-7 in their last 10 against the N.L. East and 3-8 in their last 11 on Wednesday. Also, Joe Torre’s team has dropped seven of nine NLCS games the last two years, all to the Phillies, going 0-4 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies are 17-5 in their last 22 playoff contests, including 9-2 in the last 11 dating to last year’s run to the World Series title. They’ve also won 10 of 11 at home in the postseason the last two Octobers. Charlie Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 overall, 35-15 at home (33-12 as a home chalk), 10-1 as a playoff favorite, 13-3 against the N.L. West and 8-2 on Wednesday.
Going back to last August and including the playoffs, Philadelphia has won 14 of 20 against L.A. (9-2 at Citizens Bank Park). Also, dating back several seasons, Los Angeles is just 10-25 in its last 35 games in Philly. In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Padilla has been brilliant in his first two playoff starts. First, he scattered four hits and a walk in seven scoreless innings of a 5-1 win at St. Louis in the deciding Game 3 of the NLDS. Then in Game 2 of this series Friday, he allowed just one run – a Ryan Howard solo homer – on four hits in 7 1/3 innings, with Los Angeles rallying for a 2-1 victory. Padilla has walked two and struck out 10 in 14 1/3 innings in the postseason. Padilla is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA for the Dodgers, who have won four straight games behind the 28-year-old and are 8-1 in his nine starts since he was acquired from Texas in late August.
The Dodgers are also unbeaten in Padilla’s five road starts with the team, with the former Phillie going 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA. Prior to Friday, Padilla’s only other previous start against his ex-team came with Texas last June, and he gave up seven runs in six innings of an 8-6 loss. Padilla went 10-11 with a 4.98 ERA in 26 career starts at Citizens Bank Park when he pitched for Philadelphia from 2000-2005.
Hamels gave up four runs in just 5 1/3 innings in Game 1 in Los Angeles on Thursday, but the Phillies’ offense bailed him out in an 8-6 victory, snapping a four-game losing streak behind the left-hander. Hamels has gone five straight starts without a quality performance, giving up a total of 21 runs (all earned) in 27 innings during that stretch (7.00 ERA).
After going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts last year – winning both the NLCS and World Series MVPs – Hamels is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two starts this year, including a 5-4 home loss to Colorado in the divisional round. With that defeat, Hamels is 7-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 18 starts at Citizens Bank this season.
Prior to Game 2, Hamels had faced the Dodgers six times in his career, allowing two runs or less in all six games while posting a 1.64 ERA. He pitched seven innings five times and threw a complete-game in the other contest. The Phillies are 5-1 in Hamels’ last six starts versus Los Angeles (2-1 at home).
As a team, Los Angeles sports “over” runs of 11-4 on the road, 8-3 in road playoff games, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 12-4 versus winning teams, 6-1 as an underdog and 7-1 after an off day, but the under is 9-1-2 in its last 12 on Wednesday. Also, the Phillies carry “over” streaks of 18-5-1 overall (6-1 last seven in the playoffs, all against N.L. West competition), 7-2-1 at home, 12-3-1 against right-handed starters, 13-2-1 as a favorite and 3-1-1 with Hamels on the hill.
Finally, the over is 6-3 in the nine postseason meetings between the squads the last two Octobers (3-1 in Philadelphia). Going back to the regular season, the over is 4-1 in the last five battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Tulsa (4-2, 3-1-1 ATS) at UTEP (2-4 SU and ATS)
Tulsa looks to bounce back from a tough non-conference loss to fifth-ranked Boise State when it travels to El Paso, Texas, for a Conference USA battle with the Miners at the Sun Bowl.
The Golden Hurricane jumped on Boise State quickly a week ago tonight and led 14-8 after the first quarter, then gave up the next 20 points and couldn’t recover in a 28-21 loss, though they did cover as a nine-point home underdog. Tulsa managed just 295 yards of offense while giving up 380, and it got out-rushed 193-88 in seeing a two-game winning streak halted. The Hurricane’s two losses this year came to teams ranked fifth and 12th (45-0 loss at Oklahoma).
UTEP has been idle since falling 35-20 at Memphis as a 1½-point road favorite on Oct. 10, failing to capitalize on the momentum gained after a stunning 58-41 home upset of then-No. 12 Houston on Oct. 3. Against Memphis, the Miners rolled up 442 total yards, but gave up 486, including 270 on the ground, and they committed three turnovers in falling to 2-6 SU in their last eight games.
The home team has won five in a row (3-2 ATS) and seven of eight (5-3 ATS) in this rivalry. Last year, Tulsa rallied from a 28-21 deficit and destroyed UTEP 77-35 as a 20½-point home favorite, finishing with a whopping 791-338 edge in total offense (321-32 rushing). It was the most yards gained in a Division I-A game last year. The Hurricane are 5-2 ATS in the last seven battles with the Miners overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to El Paso.
Prior to last year’s rout, the underdog had cashed in four straight meetings, with those four games decided by a total of 16 points.
UTEP is surrendering an average of 46.7 points and 596 yards per game in its last three contests, while the Golden Hurricane are surrendering just 13.7 points and 270.7 yards in their last three.
The Golden Hurricane are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games, but otherwise are on pointspread surges of 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 as a favorite and 4-1 after a SU loss. UTEP has cashed in four straight games as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, but otherwise the Miners are in ATS ruts of 2-5 overall, 3-7 at home, 3-11 on artificial turf and 2-5 after a bye week.
Tulsa has stayed under the total in seven straight lined games and is on further “under” streaks of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 in Conference USA action, 5-0 as a favorite, 10-3-1 in October and 5-2 as a road favorite. Conversely, UTEP is on “over” streaks of 5-2 in conference play, 5-2 after a bye and 8-2 as an underdog. Finally, five of the last six clashes in this rivalry have topped the posted total, including each of the last three at the Sun Bowl.
The Sports Advisors 10/21
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