O.C. Dooley

“1 UNIT” AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES TOTAL (Yankees at Angels OVER 8 in a 7:57 eastern start on FOX-TV----------Sabathia versus Kazmir):

One may want to call this the “law of averages” pick as neither team has hit well with runners in scoring position. Going into yesterday the Yankees (3-for-20) and Angels (4-for-18) in this series have both constantly failed to come up with the clutch hits with runners positioned at either second-or-third base. The Oddsmakers had no choice to “low ball” tonight’s total since Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (1.23 postseason ERA) is on the mound and is going against Scott Kazmir whose career ERA against the Yankees (2.67) is stellar. But for the first time this season Sabathia is working on “short rest” which is going to affect his durability, while Kazmir is coming off a shaky postseason start at Boston where he allowed 5 earned runs and issued 3 walks. Yesterday’s game-three featured the highest scoring game yet in the American League Championship Series which finally escaped the windy-and-cold along with rainy conditions at New York. Yesterday’s game in Anaheim started under clear skies and 70-degree temperatures and a DRY field is going to help the respective running games which can create havoc on the basepaths. Despite his 19 regular season wins and solid ERA, Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia has constantly been the beneficiary of excellent run support as he is a staggering 9-1 OVER the total in the past 10 assignments on the ROAD. For the entire season to date the Yankees as a team are an eye opening 11-3 OVER/ROAD when the posted total has been low and between 7-and-8’ runs.