Mike Lineback 10/18/09
NFL
[209-210] 4.5* Kansas City Chiefs/Washington Redskins UNDER 37.5 -120 (1/2 pt buy @ The Greek) | 1:00p ET
[231-232] 4* Tennessee Titans/New England Pats UNDER 41 -120 (1/2 pt buy @ The Greek) | 4:15p ET
[229-230] 4* Buffalo Bills/New York Jets UNDER 37 -120 (1/2 pt buy @ The Greek) | 4:15p ET
Cold rain and high winds are forecasted for all three Under plays above. And it only get nastier for the 4:15p ET starts as the temps start to drop even more throughout game. Weather conditions should keep the game on the ground. Wasn't expecting many points to be scored between KC and Washington anyways, so like the play even more. New England and Tenn are having problems defending the pass. Can't put pressure on opposing quarterbacks... Plus, Pats are pass happy. With weather conditions this takes their strength away. Hopefully, not too many turnovers turning into touchdowns and we should be Ok. Jets should be content on letting their defense and running game win the game for them. Not sure Buffalo can score period. Hence, another reason why I really like this play
[220] 4* New Orleans Saints -3 -135 (@ Bookmaker) | 1:00p ET
[219-220] 4* New York Giants/New Orleans Saints OVER 47 -110 (@ Bookmaker) | 1:00p ET
Neither team has scored less than 23 points in any game this season. Strongly believe both teams' will score 23+ again, and wouldn't be suprised if one, or both teams' hit the 30 pt mark, led by New Orleans high octane offense. Believe Saints will set tempo with their talented and relentless offense and New York will have to try their best to match their efforts. However, New Orleans have more playmakers on offense. New York are dangerous but they really haven't played anybody. They have been fortunate to host Washington and Oakland and traveled to KC, Tampa & Dallas for their road victories. And now we know Dallas aren't that good and they moved the ball up and down the field vs. the Giants. In other words, they haven't seen anything close to the Saints offense this season. Plus, the Giants are young and banged up. They are missing a key corner (Ross) and linebacker (Boley), Plus, playmaker Manningham might not play. They don't have an answer for Saints TE Shockey which is going to create mismatches for Brees to exploit. New Orleans are much better defensively this year. Believe, home cooking, improved D and a high octane, relentless offense makes the difference on Sunday.
[234] 4.5* Atlanta Falcons -3 -120 (1/2 pt buy @ The Greek) | 8:20p ET
Great value here. Atlanta have more complete team, more talent, playmakers and cohesiveness on offensive. Home field intensity should take Chicago out of their element. Wouldn't be suprised if Atlanta wins by two touchdowns.
MLB
[959-960] 4* Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadlelphia Phillies UNDER 8 -115 (@ The Greek) | 8:07p ET
Two strong starts on the hill backed by solid bullpens. Philly manager Manuel has really set up his bullpen nice for the playoffs. Weather will be a factor. Cold showers with a strong North wind blowing in from left center is forecasted for game (15+ winds). Advantage pitchers, especially coming from balmy Los Angeles. Home plate umpire, Holbrook, has called toward the Under this season. Holbrook, 19-13 Under the total in '09 with an average of 8.33 rpg being scored. Plus, wouldn't be suprised if the corners get a little wider towards the end of the game when the temps drop.
Monday Night Football
[236] 4* San Diego Chargers -3 -120 (1/2 pt buy @ The Greek) | Monday, 8:30p ET
They say 3x is a charm. Let's hope so because we have bet against the Broncos the L2 weeks. No doubt, they are playing solid football but they go down on Monday night. Just a bad situational spot for Denver. Similar to Jacksonville walking into Seattle last week and getting hammered. San Diego off a buy, are under a lot of pressure to elevate their game, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Buy week gives them time to re-focus, prepare and get healthy. Plus, Rivers and his big wideouts will stretch the field and keep Denver's defense honest. Plus, Chargers have edge on special teams. Still not sold on Denver's offensive (few playmakers; not very explosive). Believe Chargers play their best game of year on Monday.
Also, in combination with New Orleans and Atlanta picks, this makes for a solid board strategy, backing three strong home teams' laying 3 points or less. Logic says we win at least two out of three. However, hopefully a clean sweep.
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