Al DeMarco Sunday's Play
20 Dime - Minnesota
Hindsight is 20-20. Baltimore opened the season 3-0, but two wins were at home against cupcakes, 0-4 Kansas City - who the Ravens beat and covered against in a 38-24 victory thanks to a last-minute touchdown - and Cleveland, a team that just snapped a 10-game SU losing streak last weekend. In between, they went to San Diego and needed a tremendous Ray Lewis stop in the waning moments of the game to hold on for a 31-26 win against an injury-riddled, one-dimensional Charger team.
The past two weeks have brought losses, 27-21 on the road versus the Patriots, an average to good team at best, and 17-14 at home versus a Cincinnati squad that needed overtime to beat the woeful Browns one week earlier.
Defensively, this Baltimore team gets more recognition for its past accomplishments than its current play. This is a team that's allowed 24 points to KC, 26 at San Diego, and 27 at New England. Its pass defense was carved up by Phillip Rivers, who threw for 436 yards for the Chargers, despite having no ground game to rely on. And the Raven rush defense couldn't stop Cincinnati's Cedric Benson last Sunday as the Bengal tailback gained 120 of his team's 403 total yards.
If Rivers and Benson could enjoy that type of success against Baltimore, why can't Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson do the same playing at home?
Minnesota, despite a 5-0 record, is clearly getting no respect from the
Oddsmakers with this price being so short. But again, lines are set to get equal betting action; they're not meant for judging which team is actually better quantitatively. And in this case, the public perception of Baltimore's defense being better than it is, and its overwhelming denial of the possibility of the Ravens losing a third straight game following a 3-0 start, is working in our favor.
Last Sunday the Vikings were facing the ultimate trap game. Coming off a short week and an emotional Monday night victory against Green Bay, they found themselves at 0-4 St. Louis in an obvious letdown game. Yet, Minnesota hammered the winless Rams, 38-10, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the season.
My side selections involving these teams this season - both premium and free picks - are 4-1 on each. If you have Minnesota at -3 or -3 1/2, go ahead and purchase some insurance by buying down the 1/2 point in either case.
CONFIRMED