Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - IOWA STATE - 7PM.....20 DIMER - ARKANSAS - 3:30 PM.....10 DIMER - MARSHALL - 3:30 PM 40 DIMER - IOWA STATE CYCLONES - 7:00 PM
Without Griffin at QB and Jay Finley banged up at RB, I don't see any way Baylor keeps up with a good offense. Iowa State's offense went TD-for-TD with Kansas on the road last week and actually should have won the game, but a last second TD pass sailed just high. Still, they scored 36 points against the Jayhawks in an easy underdog cover.
Baylor is in "weather the storm mode" until their offensive weapons come back, while Iowa State is essentially in a must win situation at home if they want to go bowling, and this is Iowa State's official conference home opener as well.
Common opponent stats: Baylor played Kansas (at Baylor): 21% conversions on 3rd down. Cyclones played Kansas on the road: 37% conversions on 3rd down.
Kent State had 424 total yards, and converted 26% on 3rd down vs. Baylor.
Kent State had 299 total yards and converted just 8% of 3rd downs at home vs. Iowa State's defense.
Iowa State special teams and O-line are playing well too right now, and the 'Clones are averaging 5.2 yards per carry to boot. Look for this trend to continue, as State rolls to a 2 TD win at home.
Lay the small home chalk here boys!
20 DIMER - ARKNANSAS RAZORBACKS - 3:30 PM
After such an emotional win over LSU last week on the road in a game that Tim Tebow answered the bell, I can easily see the Gators having a difficult time getting back up to cover this rather imposing number at home today against an Arkansas team that can score.
The Hog defense did a credible job against a solid Auburn offense last week in upsetting the Tigers, 44-23 as the 2-point home dog, and we all know the Hogs can put points on the board, as they have been in the 40's in all but one of their games this season.
Not too sure Tebow is all the way back after the hit suffered in the Kentucky game, and you can be sure if the Gators get ahead, Tebow will be watching from the sidelines which makes the back-door that much more attainable.
G-Man feels this number is simply too high. Take the Razorbacks plus the points.
10 DIMER - MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD - 3:30 PM
Once again, I feel this is too many points to give, as I have seen West Virginia under Bill Stewart enough to know that the Mountaineers have a tendency to implode when trying to cover the big chalk.
Marshall is on a 3-game series slide both straight up, and against the spread, but the Herd have been showing some signs of improvement this season, with wins and covers in 3 of their last 4 lined games.
Expect the underdog to be game here, and while the outright loss seems inevitable due to the Mounties superior team speed, West Va does have a pair of huge Big East Conference games upcoming against Connecticut, and South Florida.
I have to believe their will be plenty of "wiggle-room" for the in-state underdog to cash our ticket.
Garrett
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