San Jose St. +19½ over FRESNO STATE PINNACLE
I’ve talked about Fresno State in this space and its propensity for pulling huge upsets and now I’m here to tell you about the ugly side of Fresno State football. You see, while Pat Hill has a reputation as a dragon-slayer he has lost some ugly, ugly games the past few seasons as a huge favorite and squeaked by on other occasions. Last year, as a 21-point favorite against Hawaii, Fresno State lost outright 32-29. As a 34-point favorite against Idaho, Fresno State had to hold on in the fourth quarter to preserve a 13-point win, and as a 17-point favorite against New Mexico State, Fresno again had to score in the fourth quarter to win 24-17. In 2007, they failed to cover both games in which they were favored by 14 or more and in 2006 they actually lost to Utah State as a 27-point favorite. For whatever reason it seems like Fresno can’t get up for games that actually count in the conference standings and that makes it a great spot to back the San Jose State Spartans. San Jose State is 1-4 but the games that matter are coming up and you can bet San Jose State will be ready for this game, especially with a bye on deck. San Jose State’s main problem this year has been stopping the run, but that stat comes with a caveat; every team they have faced employs a run first offense. Southern Cal has NFL running backs throughout the depth chart, Utah has a new quarterback and needs to run the ball, Stanford is first in the Pac 10 in rushing yards and Cal Poly is 15th in the FCS in rushing yards. You can bet Fresno State knows these numbers and will undoubtedly make the running game a big part of Saturday’s game plan. That works to our advantage as milking the clock keeps points to a minimum and limits quick scores. San Jose State showed last week they can move the ball and score points against a good team like Idaho (who has gotten votes in the AP top 25) and shouldn’t be neutralized by a bad Fresno defense. I can’t think of a single reason to lay the 19½ with Fresno and anyone who tells you so simply isn’t doing the research. Play: #199 San Jose State +19½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Texas A&M -5.5 over KANSAS ST. PINNACLE
I’m not the biggest fan of laying road chalk, especially with a team that I recently pegged as terribly overrated, but against a secretly horrible Kansas State team I’m going to go ahead and advise it anyway. Two weeks ago Texas A&M had very little chance to compete against a highly motivated SEC team but the matchup this week is much, much different. K-State got absolutely drilled last week by Texas Tech, giving up seven passing touchdowns and a total of 739 yards of total offense on their way to a 66-14 loss. Those numbers may look cartoonish and a scream of one bad game, but the Wildcats defense hadn’t been tested until last week and the results were obviously not pretty. The reason this line isn’t much higher is because the Oddsmakers still haven’t caught on to Kansas State’s awfulness and why should they – their record shows 3-3 with a “big” win over Iowa State. Those who have been reading this space thus far know that non-conference record means very little in the grand scheme of things and that’s why Texas A&M should win this game easily. While the Aggies certainly have their own set of problems, scoring touchdowns isn’t one of them. Last week against Nationally Ranked Oklahoma State, Texas A&M stayed in the game until the fourth quarter and quarterback Jerrod Johnson threw for three touchdowns and 273 yards. Texas A&M has managed to average 37 points a game despite their ugly loss to Arkansas, while K-State has given up the third most passing yards in the Big-12 and will certainly allow Johnson and the Aggies to score quick and often. The Wildcats does not have the personnel this year to win more than one or two Big-12 games and the fact they are underdogs here is a good indicator of that prediction. This line is just way too low and similar to last week when I recommended a bet against Akron before the lines got too high I will do the same this week. Take Texas A&M in a game that shouldn’t be close. Play: #157 Texas A&M -5.5 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Miami (Ohio) +14 over OHIO PINNACLE
Ohio played the aforementioned Akron last week and thankfully covered but the truth is they were really lucky to escape with a victory. Akron turned the ball over five times and if not for that statistic they would have come out with a win. I believed the quarterback situation had been settled at Ohio but that simply does not seem to be the case. Theo Scott couldn’t do anything against a porous Akron defense and while Miami’s defense certainly can’t be considered anything more than below average, bettors must be weary laying points with a team that has trouble scoring. Miami still hasn’t won a game this season but this is conference play in one that has been notoriously known for unpredictable results. Miami loaded up their non-conference schedule with heavyweights Cincinnati and Boise State and SEC team Kentucky and promptly got demolished in each of those games. Miami was also breaking in a new quarterback in Zac Dysert and after six games his main problems are turnovers and sacks but that’s to be expected from a freshman. Dysert is also a running threat that has a 100-yard game to his credit and should be more comfortable against weaker MAC competition. I respect Miami coach Mike Haywood for scheduling the way he did and I believe it will only improve his team’s play. Miami sacrificed wins and seeing that kind of competition should pay off in conference play. They held BCS opponent Northwestern to 16 points last week and if not for four turnovers would have had a chance to win. Ohio does not have a significant talent advantage and after last week’s game has no business laying anything close to two touchdowns in conference play. While asking Miami to win this game outright may be a little much, they have as much a chance to win this one as Ohio. Take the 14 points and don’t be shocked if Miami pulls the upset. Play: #139 Miami (Ohio) +14 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Georgia -7.5 over VANDERBILT PINNACLE
I’ve come full circle on Georgia and believe they’re now a team worthy of a wager despite their obvious flaws. For one, Georgia should have never been considered a dark horse National Title contender, especially with their brutal schedule and unknown quarterback. Last week’s ugly result certainly wasn’t expected but it was somewhat understandable considering the letdown factor this team faced after almost beating LSU. To face Vanderbilt on the road is exactly what Georgia needs to get back on the winning track, as Vanderbilt’s weakness is scoring points and Georgia so far hasn’t been able to stop anyone, allowing an SEC high 30 points a game. Vanderbilt won’t be able to exploit this weakness, as they have scored 9, 3, and 7 points against SEC opponents, not to mention 6 points against Army last week. Commodores QB Larry Smith has just been abysmal thus far, completely a Jamarcus Russell-like 46.7% of his passes and showing a 2-6 touchdown to interception ratio. If the Bulldogs defense can’t force turnovers against the feeble Vandy offense they won’t against any of their remaining opponents and that puts them in serious trouble. The magnitude of this game for Georgia can’t be overstated, as the rest of their SEC schedule shows Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and a non-conference game against rival Georgia Tech. If Georgia wants to get to six wins and be bowl eligible, it absolutely has to win this game. Mark Richt is a master motivator and has proven time and time again he is one of the elite coaches in all of College Football. Richt is 16-4 coming off a loss and should have the Bulldogs extremely focused after the trashing at Tennessee. Vanderbilt returned a ton of starters on both sides of the ball to a team that went to a bowl game last season but for a variety of reasons just couldn’t maintain last season’s success. If Georgia doesn’t pull out this game and do it in style, write them off and keep an eye out for potential fade spots later in the season. Play: #129 Georgia -7.5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).