Craig Davis 10/14
Craig Davis
Wednesdays' Lineup
15 Dime --- BOISE STATE and OVER (2-Team, 6 1/2-point teaser. We're going to tease the side and total down in our favor using a 6 1/2 point teaser selection.)
For the first time in a while, I feel like Vegas is right on the money with it's line and total, meaning it's time to play a teaser to get the value we need. I kick myself because I actually thought about teasing Arkansas State (my 15-dimer) and the UNDER (my free play) last night, but eventually went with Arkansas State on the money line... and had they not committed 14 turnovers and 82 penalties, I might have gotten it right. Nevertheless, I believe the two-team teaser is the right play here because we can get Boise at around -2.5 or -3 and the total will come in somewhere around 46 or 46.5 (at least that's what I got it at).
First off, you have to believe Boise is going to win this game. They've come too far this season and are now in prime position to make a run at a major BCS bowl game if they keep this unblemished record, so even though I do expect Tulsa to give them a run for their money early, I believe in the end Boise just has better talent on both sides of the ball, especially when you compare Boise's offense to Tulsa's defense. The only major test Tulsa has had came a few weeks ago at Oklahoma, and the Sooners scored a 45-0 shutout win. Folks, the score could have been worse but Bob Stoops took out many of his starters in the fourth quarter. Let's also keep in mind it was Landry Jones and NOT Sam Bradford running the offense. Although Jones was recruited more heavily than Boise QB Kellen Moore, Moore is further along in his career with a better offensive line in front of him. How in the world can we expect the Golden Hurricane to stop this offense tonight? To put it mildly, they can't.
But the biggest reason for going with the teaser tonight instead of just the points on the side is the fact that I don't completely trust the Broncos defense... and we all know how well Tulsa can score. Let's say Boise gets up by 14 points late in the fourth quarter and kicks the ball back to Tulsa. GJ Kinne and this Hurricane offense is good enough to march right down the field to get the backdoor cover... and with the way my luck has been going the last three days, that's bound to happen. We get a favorable line and total tonight as I'm expecting a score in the neighborhood of a 31-24 or 34-24 type finish. Too close to the spread and total for me, so that's why I'm teasing it up tonight and both should cash in for us.
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Originally Posted by sterling111
