Freddy Wills : Jets and Rockies


Posted By: Freddy Wills
Game Date / Time: October 12th, 2009 - 6:05 PM
Sport: MLB
This is a Guaranteed Pick on the Money Line for the Full Game.
Phillies @ Rockies (6:05 pm et)
vs.
3-Dime MLB POD + 1-Dime Bonus
MLB Play of the Days (POD's): 4-1 This Post Season
107-56 (65.2%) +130.57 units of profit! (+$130,570)
The Bottom Line

Take Rockies -110 (3-Dime POD) & Under 8.5 Runs (1-Dime Bonus)
I'm going against Lee here where I was for him in Game 1 on a game. It's really ironic that the Rockies hit LHP at home, but struggle big time on the road. That was a big reason why I had the Phillies in Game #1, but I felt all along this game was going back to Philli. It was a close game yesterday, and today will likely be the same, but in the end I feel this game goes to the Rockies and the under and I'll continue with the pitching match up below:

Cliff Lee has a 4.09 ERA on the road this year since joining the National League mostly in his last 4 starts where he gave up 18 ER in just 20 IP to the Brewers, Braves, Nationals, and Astros. Not exactly big time hitting clubs, but he struggled on the road down the stretch and I think he might have a bit more trouble. Remember the Rockies saw him for 9 full innings and now they have a better idea and approach on how to hit him today at home. Like I mentioned the Rockies seem to hit LHP at home they are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. LH starter. They hit .296 (+.14 compared to LHP) and are scoring 6.60 runs per 9 (+.80 compared to LHP).

Rockies will come back with Jimenez who struggled in game 1 against the Phillies with 9 hits in 5 IP and 5 ER. Jimenez cruised through 4IP allowing 0 ER and then he allowed 2 ER through 5 complete innings. The trouble came in the 6th inning before he completed an out he gave up a single to Utley double to Howard and triple to Werth before handing it over to relief who gave up the run to Werth, and then shut the Phillies down the rest of the day. The bullpen has been solid for the Rockies which was really their weakness going in and I can't see Jimenez not pitching better in this game. He's got a 3.34 ERA at home this year. He pitches much better at night with a 3.19 ERA which he will be pitching later than Game 1's early game. Rockies are 11-1 in their last 12 Game 4's and 38-15 in their last 53 home games as a favorite. Rockies 9-0 in Jimenez's last 8 starts when team score 5 runs or more in previous game. Meaning he is their shut down guy and their ace! I like him to come up big in this spot here tonight against the Phillies who don't hit righties just quite as well as lefties.

Rockies are under 9-1 in their last 10 home games, and 11-1-1 their last 13 when opponents scored 5 runs or more in last game with Jimenez on the mound. They are also under 26-10 when Jimenez is off 4 days rest. Phillies are under 5-0 with Lee on the mound after allowing 5 runs or more in a game. Lee has also been the Phillies ace and with a total set at 8.5 I can't help it. Ron Kulpa will be behind the plate and he is 13-8 on the under during the regular season.


Posted By: Freddy Wills
Game Date / Time: October 12th, 2009 - 8:45 PM
Sport: NFL
This is a Guaranteed Pick on the Spread for the Full Game.
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4 Dime NFL Play of the Day!
Jets @ Dolphins (8:45pm et)
vs.
The Bottom Line

Take Jets -2.5 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
This game really reminds me of a couple of games yesterday. The Falcons went to the 49ers as the better team yet a whacky line of +1.5 and they dominated 45-10, and the other one was my POD from yesterday with the Seahawks -1.5 against the Jaguars. Jaguars went on to win 41-0. I feel like the Jets are the better team here and the Dolphins are not the same team as last year. Jets are clearly better than they were last year and it's because of their defense. Despite being without Calvin Pace their first 4 games the defense has been superb not even allowing the high scoring Saints to score an offensive TD until the 4th quarter. The Jets still lost that game and that is the reason I think the Jets win here tonight. This team will be focused especially defensively coming off the loss. Rex Ryan saw this "Wild Cat" offense twice last year once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. Dolphins rushed for just 129 yards on 43 carries in the two games combined. They also forced Pennington to throw a total of 5 interceptions and he's a QB that does not throw many INTs. Jets now have the liberty of facing an inexperienced QB in Chad Henne and I believe the Jets will force him to beat them.

Jets who lost to the Dolphins in the last game of the season last year will be well motivated to continue their dominance over the Dolphins in this rich rivalry. Jets are 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings. In their loss last year the Dolphins had 126 yards on 29 carries, look for a major improvement in that number and for this to be a low scoring game. I expect a lot of low risk plays from Sanchez early screens etc., but don't be surprised to see him take some shots down the field to the new WR Braylon Edwards.