Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime --- PANTHERS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 1/2 or -4.)

10 Dime --- SEAHAWKS

CAROLINA (buy the half point if the line is -3 1/2 or -4) ---- Wow, it's amazing what public perception can do to a line. I honestly thought when these Vegas point spreads were released, Carolina would be close to a TD fave. So you can imagine how excited I was when I saw this thing come in around 3. Granted, it's moved up a tad, but that honestly doesn't matter to me... I was going to release Carolina at -6. Back to public perception... most people look at these two teams and see the Redskins at 2-2 in a very tough NFC East while the Panthers have looked pathetic in three games, losing all three by 8 points or more. But let's not forget that they committed 7 turnovers after grabbing a 7-0 lead over Philly in Week 1. They battled the Falcons till the fourth quarter in Atlanta before a costly turnover set up the Falcons for the game winning score in Week 2. They also held a 7-0 lead over Dallas on Monday night in Week 3 before a few costly turnovers led to a 21-7 Dallas win.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time... and the matchup is perfect for a Carolina win today. Washington is one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL and for two straight weeks HC John Fox has preached "ball protection, ball protection, ball protection". I realize I'm taking a big chance here with a team that has turned the ball over so much, but even if they do commit a few turnovers, I have no faith in Jim Zorn's offense to convert. When I say this offense is bad, I mean they're bad. They haven't scored more than 17 points in a game this season and once (against the Rams no less) didn't score a TD in 4 quarters at home vs. the St. Louis Rams. RB Clinton Portis hasn't come close to 100 yards rushing in a game and Jason Campbell simply doesn't have the tools to be effective more than one or two drives per game.

The bottom line for Carolina here today is "will they get back to the things they did well last year and pound the ball behind that big offensive line"?? Though I can't prove it, I have a feeling they will. Don't put the game in the hands of Jake Delhomme because he's not capable of leading game winning drives, but he's definitely more than capable of managing the offense with a healthy mix of runs and short passes. As the Panthers get back to their roots, this will more than set up a few long passes to suddenly forgotten WR Steve Smith. But the key is getting DeAngelo Williams and a finally healthy Jonathan Stewart going out of the backfield. Washington's run defense is average, at best, and when Carolina decides to get back to the ground game, it's going to be a long afternoon as the Panthers should be able to control the clock and time of possession.

Two matchups to watch that I believe are clearly in our favor today are Steve Smith vs. DeAngelo Hall and OT Chris Samuels vs. Julius Peppers. Samuels isn't 100% coming back from a surgically repaired hip while Peppers is just looking for a matchup that he can exploit. Peppers is off to a very slow start this year, but this matchup with Samuels could be just what the doctor ordered. As for Smith vs. Hall, well, let's just say it could be a clinic. Hall's skills have clearly diminished and I have no idea what plan the Redskins are putting in place to keep Smith in check, but I'm expecting the first big day of the season for Mr. Smith. When all is said and done, I think the Panthers are much better than their 0-3 record and if Washington hadn't played Tampa, Detroit, and St. Louis, we could be talking about the 0-4 Washington Redskins. Small number to lay and we'll take it. Top play of the day on Carolina.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS --- As long as this number stays under 3, I'm fine with whatever we get. Look, I realize Seattle hasn't played up to expectations other than their Week 1 domination of St. Louis, but the common denominator here is a healthy Matt Hasselbeck. I could hear the collective groan coming from the state of Washington when Patrick Willis put his helmet square in Hasselbeck's ribs in Week 2s loss to the Niners. Since then the Seahawks haven't looked the same offensively with Seneca Wallace. That's why I'm as excited as a kid at Christmas that we get Hasselbeck back today. Not only does he help this offense keep their own defense off the field for some much needed rest, but Seattle is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and you can bet this team is going to do whatever it takes to defend their home field after dropping a tough one there a few weeks ago vs. Chicago. Expect a healthy dose of Julius Jones early, but ultimately it's going to be TJ Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson and Nate Burleson who spread the field and cause all sorts of trouble for Jacksonville's secondary.

Speaking of Jacksonville, the public is starting to jump on their bandwagon after a couple of impressive wins over Houston and Tennessee. What's been so impressive about this team is the fact they're finally able to throw the football with a legitimate WR1... Mike Sims-Walker. This guy has gotten better each week and has finally enabled Torry Holt to take the WR2 role in this offense. However, I'm completely unimpressed with Jacksonville's pass defense and I'm a little worried they have some injury issues at LB as well. We already know they could be without both starting offensive tackles and communication could be a problem in one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Matt Hasselbeck is a winner, and he simply won't let this team lose... not this game. Not to a team who has to travel nearly 3,000 miles to get there. Not against a team who has already dropped a lopsided affair to another NFC West team earlier in the year. Don't get me wrong... Seattle isn't going to shut the Jags out... but they need this game more than Jacksonville because they're chasing San Francisco and a loss here would be devastating. I'm siding with the home team here as they win 27-17.