Sunday's Winners
25-Dime New England Patriots - When was the last time you saw a 4-0 team that has allowed just 26 points all season a home underdog? Probably never. The point is the oddsmaker doesn't respect Denver and neither do I.
Tom Brady is getting sharper and more in sync with his receivers every week. The Patriots destroyed Denver, 41-7, last year. That was without Brady.
Yes, Denver is improved and vastly different. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing an excellent job with the castoffs he has manning many of his starting spots.
But let's not, for one instance, lose sight of the teams Denver has played - Cincinnati (who they beat on a fluke tipped touchdown pass), Cleveland at home, Oakland and catching an overrated mixed-up Dallas squad at home.
Denver doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Patriots' attack. Kyle Orton is a dink-and-dunk game manager. Correll Buckhalter, the team's leading rusher and best short-yardage back, is out with an ankle injury. New England has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season.
The Patriots are getting healthier on defense. Bill Belichick is a master defensive game planner. He's come up with the right schemes to stop much tougher offenses than what the Broncos offer. The Patriots are 36-16-1 (69 percent) against the spread in their last 53 road games. They have covered 17 of the past 23 (74 percent) games as road chalk.
The Broncos are 8-19-1 against the spread in their last 28 home games.
Broncos head man Josh McDaniels spent eight season learning under Belichick, the past three as offensive coordinator for New England. Belichick doesn't want to lose to his pupil. So the Patriots won't lack for motivation in this non-division matchup.
10-Dime Carolina Panthers - The Panthers, off a bye, have had two weeks to realize the importance of this matchup. They are 0-3 and absolutely can not take a home loss. They need to win this game to salvage their season.
Carolina is 8-4-1 against the spread in its last 13 home contests. The Redskins are deficient in their rushing attack and in pass protection. The result is opponents have held Washington to 20 points or less in 11 of the last 12 games. Washington ranks 27th in scoring.
While the Panthers are sure to be motivated, the Redskins are in a confused state thanks to their meddling and incompetent owner Daniel "Danny Boy" Snyder. Jim Zorn could go at any time. Snyder further eroded Zorn's shrinking respect and authority by bringing in 67-year-old Sherm Lewis as an offensive consultant. Lewis hasn't held an NFL job for nearly five years.
Morale is terrible on the Redskins. Zorn is being undercut. Defensive coordinator Greg Blache is not talking to the media. Big free agent signing Albert Haynesworth is less than 100 percent. Clinton Portis had a heated verbal exchange with fullback Mike Sellers during practice this week.
Portis is clearly past his prime. He has failed to top 80 yards rushing during Weeks 2-4 against weak defenses St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa Bay. The Redskins are without their top run blocker, guard Randy Thomas.
The Redskins' offensive line is like Portis, aging and past their prime. Backup tailback Ladell Betts is averaging 1.6 yards per carry.
The Panthers shored up their porous run defense by signing 340-pound veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. The Panthers have the better skill position players with running back DeAngelo Williams and wide receiver Steve Smith.
The Redskins have lost five in a row on the road. In their last road game, they were beaten by the Lions, losers of 19 straight games. Washington is a money-burner going 1-8-3 against the spread in its last 12 games.
5-Dime Seattle Seahawks - I like Seattle, with one of the best homefield advantages, to beat Jacksonville. The Seahawks are in a desperate situation. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a terrible situational spot.
The Jaguars are traveling cross-country following back-to-back division victories. The Jaguars haven't won two straight road games in two years. The Jaguars, under Jack Del Rio, are 0-7 against the spread off consecutive straight-up and against the spread victories.
It's not just the situation. I don't believe the Jaguars are very good. They have lost 14 of their last 21 games.
The Jaguars have a weak secondary and their offensive line partially consists of two rookie tackles, who are both questionable. Eugene Monroe has been battling the flu, while Eben Britton missed last week's game because of a sprained knee. Both have taken their share of lumps.
On offense, the Jaguars rely heavily on running back Maurice Jones-Drew. But if you discount Jones-Drew's 60-yard run against a weak Houston rush defense, the Jaguars have averaged only 3.0 yards a carry in their last two games.
Seattle has offensive line injuries, too. Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones is out. So is Sean Locklear and Rob Sims. But Matt Hasselbeck has practiced this week after missing the past two games with a rib injury. He's expected to start.
Hasselbeck would give the Seahawks a huge emotional boost. I'm fine, though, if backup Seneca Wallace starts again. The Seahawks have become more run-oriented and their quarterback takes short drops making it easier to pass protect. The Jaguars also lack a strong pass rush.
Seattle coach Jim Mora admitted this is a crucial game. The Seahawks have a big home field advantage. There isn't a louder outdoor stadium than Qwest Field.
The Seahawks are 10-5-1 against the spread in their last 16 home contests. They have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference home games and have covered 10 of the past 12 times when playing following back-to-back losses.
Nover 10/11
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