Sunday, October 11, 2009 Handicapper: Mike Handzelek
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 40.5/-105 Under Play Title: Smash Mouth Football Coming O/U Play
Click Here to View Pick Analysis

It looks like Mike Singletary has the 49ers defense grasping the system kind of early as witnessed by San Francisco yielding 13 PPG thus far this season. Yes, this is only the 2nd potent offense they'll be facing, but I don't think Coach Smith is going to abandon the running game with Michael Turner and a little bit of Norwood. 49ers MLB Patrick Willis will come up big and put some pressure on Ryan who will be dinkin' it most of the day. A lot of people are looking for a San Francisco cover as QB Shaun Hill is flawless @ home in 7 starts. Without Frank Gore in the lineup, the rookie Glen Coffee gets the call and will try to be a beast of burden. The Falcons will stress ball control and no turnovers on the road and should have a solid gameplan coming off a Week 4 bye. San Francisco is excited about Michael Crabtree signing, but it will be a long time before he makes a big impact he's capable of. The Falcons having that extra-prep time will load the box and force the issue. In doing so, expect more than a normal share of smash mouth football which gives us the line value we need for an UNDER. Our Smash Mouth Football Coming O/U Play is to take the UNDER in the Atlanta-San Francisco game @ Candelstick Park for $200.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 41/-108 Under Play Title: Our Patented Got To Knowem' O/U Doubleplay (Undefeated)
Click Here to View Pick Analysis

Word to OVER players---Josh McDaniels knows Tom Brady and how to contain him being his former QB coach. Knowing offensive tendencies and familiar pass routes is a big A+ when facing the New England Patriots. The bigger advantage comes with the weather which should be in the 30's with winds and either rain or snow. Knowing Belichick & McDaniels, their game plan will evolve around the traditional bad weather smash mouth game plan. Belichick is smart enough to figure out a gameplan that gives his running backs those all-important playmaking abilities. I think both defenses come out of this smelling like a rose. Denver might struggle moving the ball but one key is the Denver preparation for the game. Yes, they could of practiced in the bubble, but they knew that wasn't reality this week. So sit back and watch how both of these teams trade field position throughout the afternoon until 1 team makes that game-changing make or break. It's also great to see that a lot of OVER trends are shoe-ins for this game. It won't work with all factors mentioned above. Our Patented Got To Knowem' O/U Doubleplay is to hop all over the UNDER in the Patriots-Broncos game for $400.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1/-115 Seattle Seahawks Play Title: Your Classic Letdown Coming From A Mile Away
Click Here to View Pick Analysis

So the Jacksonville Jaguars have beaten the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in back-to-back weeks and now we're ready to hand them the seat of a team in contention? Not so fast boys! Let's not jump the gun when its plain to see that their ground game is inconsistent, they're just coming off a gigantic victory in their division & they're making a cross-country trip into the unfamiliar territory of the NFC West. I recall the last time they recently hooked up with this division resulted ina big "L" against an Arizona team whose "Clancy-less" and is in defensive transition. The Pacific Northwest & Qwest Field in Seattle is not a area or venue that a team from the east can immediately adapt to unless you have the talent. Jacksonville is iffy at best in that category. What the average bettor doesn't understand about Tennessee last week is when they put that many in the box that frequently, you get beaten often and deep. Guess what happened against the challenged secondary of the Titans? Different things factor in for Seattle today that they didn't have recently. Hasselbeck back behind center, Josh Wilson back in the CB spot & Tatupu roming the MLB position are pivotal position players Seattle needs to have for a winning formula. With the Jaguars possibly having 2 offensive tackles not @ 100%, I have to give the edge to the Seahawks. Let's talk some numbers. Jacksonville does not fare well after a divisional game and back-to-back SU & ATS victories as witnessed by their PERFECT 0-7 ATS record in this situation under Del Rio. They've lost 5 in a row ATS off a home divisional win. I think Jim Mora, Jr. will motivate his club enough to respond in a big way with their backs against the wall & they've always come up BIG when off back-to-back losses going 10-2 ATS. Your Classic Letdown Coming From A Mile Away play says to put up $200 on the Seattle Seahawks.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 9/-104 Cincinnati Bengals Play Title: First Steppin' Out ATS Doubleplay Of Year (Like Others' 5*s)
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Let's get one thing straight from the beginning. Cincinnati has turned their defense around and will consistent win games as a result this season. No more has everything fallen upon Carson Palmer's shoulders to make or break. I also expected a flat spot for Cincy against Cleveland because of the evident look-ahead toward this more important divisonal tilt. The Denver win was a fluke so in reality, the Bengals should be sitting @ 4-0. This game is a statement of respect I think the Bengals can make in sending the division a message that they're not a joke anymore and can contend for the division. Chad Ochocinco looks like he's ready to come out of his long slumber at the WR position. Negativity and excuses were coming from the Ravens lockerroom after last week's loss and that doesn't transform into blowout material here. It also doesn't help if they have to go without left tackle Jared Gaither. It becomes progressively hard to blow out every team that comes into M & T Bank Stadium as we get deeper into the season. I don't call KC & Cleveland quality opponents in that venue. Three key mojo systems to remember concern the time of year, similarity & coming off a certain game. In October, Baltimore has lost 10 of 11 ATS when off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU win. Going back to November 24 of 2002, the mighty Bengals are a PERFECT 12-0 ATS after taking on Cleveland. let's look at similarity. When the Ravens take a team with like record, they are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS as a 7+ favorite since October 27, 2006. Week 5 is even going our way as well. Baltimore has lost 4 ina row versus the number in Week 5 while the Bengals have gone 4-0-1 the last 5 years in this week. The bottom line says the Bengals have responded BIG going 4-0 their last 4 installations as the dog so our First Steppin' Out ATS Doubleplay Of The Year is to put up $500 on the Cincinnati Bengals. I would also play $50 to risk on Cincinnati on the ML looking for a nicer payback.