Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions +12

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: QB Matthew Stafford is officially day-to-day after suffering a right knee injury Sunday. The Lions would not confirm reports he suffered a dislocated or partially dislocated kneecap. When asked after whether he thought he could play against the Steelers, Staffords response was: "Not really into hypotheticals, but I think I could give it a go." Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson were hot in the first half last week, connecting five times for 119 yards. Stafford went 24-for-36 for 296 yards and a touchdown. Over the past three games, the Lions have outscored their opponents 44-28 in the first half, but have been outscored 61-12 in the second half, so I'm expecting a better all around effort as coach Jim Schwartz called his teams performance in the second half of last week's game vs. Chicago, "a complete disaster". On the other side of the field: After a couple of losses, the Steelers rebounded last week with a better performance against the Chargers; however, after shutting down San Diego for nearly three quarters, the pass defense had a meltdown and allowed 254 yards by Philip Rivers, who completed 21 of 36 with three TDs. The Steelers sacked him three times, but Rivers threw no INT's. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS its last five overall and is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Detroit always plays Pittsburgh tough and is an above average 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. the defending champs; when taking all of these factors into consideration I have to recommend a play on the large home dog!