[khaden]

Saturday, October 10, 2009 Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Houston U vs. Mississippi St (NCAAF) - 12:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-110 Mississippi St Play Title: Matador Defense Exposed Plus 24-0 System
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The most alarming fact in UTEP's 58-41 thumping of Houston is not the score. It definitely is the 305 yards rushing the Miners unleashed upon the matador defense of the Cougars. Today, they face a Mississippi State squad that should of upended L.S.U. a few weeks back. Houston does have a prolific passer in Case Keenum with a nice 13/2 TD/INT ratio but the pass defense he's up against limits opponents to 49% completions & 191 passing yards per game. When he entertains for the third staright week in Davis Wade Stadium @ Scott Field in Starkville, Mullen & his Dogs' are a solid 5-2 ATS. Now let's look at the seal this deal conference versus conference amazing fact. In the last 24 games Conference USA teams tangled with teams from the SEC, it's resulted in a 0-24 record for Conference USA. Despite losing line value from the opening mark, we're sticking with the Dogs'. The Mississippi State defense wins this one so our Matador Defense Exposed Plus 24-0 System says to put $200 on the Bulldogs.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek North Texas vs. UL Lafayette (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-103 North Texas Play Title: Not Worthy False Favorite With 15-2 System
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The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have had time to think coming off a bye week & are now set to take on The North Texas Eagles (I think I like their old Mean Green nickname better)@ Cajun Field in Lafayette. The problem here is with laying any kind of points with a team that plainly can't score. Against lined teams this season, they are averaging a super-anemic 6.67 PPG. We can't overlook non-opportunistic stat of -6 in turnovers the last 3 games put up by Louisiana-Lafayette. On the other side of the ball, North Texas QB Riley Dodge put up 313 yards passing while running for 57 himself against Middle Tennessee State. Don't forget that teams with 17 returning starters installed as a dog who face an opponent off back-to-back losses are 15-2 ATS away from home. We think this dog is clearly barking out loud as are Not Worthy False Favorite With 15-2 System play says to put up $200 on the Eagles of North Texas & let's buy to + 7 1/2 as we cash in this dog at OUR number.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek East Carolina vs. SMU (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-104 SMU Play Title: Out Of Gas & On The Road In A Flat Spot
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This title fits to the tee none other than Skip Holtz' Pirates of East Carolina. This happens to be the Pirates 4th road game in 5 weeks as they take on June Jones' charges @ Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. The Pirates are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS as road favorites of more than 6 and have now lost 12 of 18 ATS going back to the beginning of last year. June Jones has the surface edge taking on East Carolina who have natural grass @ Dowdy-Ficklin Stadium. The Ponies were young last season but now return 16 starters including 51 letterman to the roster & are ready to make a little noise in Conference-USA action. A big factor in the Mustangs 2 wins this season has been Miami transfer Shawnbrey McNeal in the backfield. They've beaten a good UAB team on the road and should have the home crowd riled up after not having a home game for over a month. June Jones always has a master gameplan awaiting through the air as he did @ Hawaii. I expect to utilize it when situations permit against a defense of East Carolina rated 118th in pass defense efficiency in Division I-A. Speaking of "D", S.M.U. has a defense rated #1 in interceptions with 12 thus far and that's good enough for us to pull the trigger on the Mustangs as our Out Of Gas & On The Road In A Flat Spot play. Be happy & buy to + 7 1/2 & put up $200 on S.M.U.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Michigan vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -8/-106 Iowa Play Title: Running Game Stuffer Play
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The Michigan Wolverines have shown a little dependency on their run game. Word to your mother--Kirk Ferentz's crew are excellent run stuffers as they proved twice against Penn State in back-to-back years. You have that perfect setup here with Frosh Baby QB Tate Forcier invading tough Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City with no maturity in his resume'. The result will be turnovers as Michigan digs a whole they won't get out of by the 4th quarter. They've been fortunate enough by playing & winning 4 straight @ Ann Arbor. What happened when they go on the road for the first time? They lose to the Spartans and give up over 400 yards of total offense. If the Spartans found a way to control the Wolverines, think what Iowa will do. Michigan is giving up 31 PPG against legitimate opponents. Coach Rich Rodriguez is a putrid 1-10 ATS versus teams that have defenses who hold their opponents to 2 TD's or less. On the other side of the ball, QB Rick Stanzi seems to have the experience needed to take the Hawkeyes one step further. This is that perfect time for a statement to be made by Iowa that they may still be around for a Big Ten title game come November 14th when they invade Ohio Stadium in Columbus. Remember the Hawkeyes have been limping the last few games and now, Tony Moeaki, Bryan Bulaga & Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are ready with guns blazin'. Iowa has delivered BIG as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points going a red-hot 10-2 against the number. The bottom line says if the Spartans can run stuff Michigan & hold them to under 30 yards on the ground, Iowa will also be up to the task. Iowa goes and gets their 10th win a row as they pull away in the 4th quarter and chew up Michigan's desperation. Our Running Game Stuffer Play is to take the Iowa Hawkeyes for $200 but buy to -6 1/2.

Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Arizona U vs. Washington U (NCAAF) - 10:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-109 Arizona U Play Title: Running On Fumes Play
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The Washington Huskies put a lot into that upset of USC and even more losing to Notre Dame on the road last week. They fit nicely into this system. When an overtime loser allows 35 or more points and are at home, they've gone a ticket-ripping 12-32-1 ATS. The Huskies go up against an Arizona team who already rushed for 900 yards winning 3 of their first 4 games. The Cats' are salivating after watching game film showing Notre Dame's 530 yards of total offense against the Huskies. Arizona's QB change to Nick Foles has been a change for the better as he was 25 of 34 for 254 yards & 3 TD's with no INT's versus Oregon State. We like the fact that the Wildcats had 2 weeks to prepare for this one and are up aginst a team that's running on fumes. In The Stats (ITS) shows Arizona dominating opponents to the tune of 412-288 total yards advantage. This is partly due to a very beefy offensive line that averages 6'5" & 313 pounds. The bottom line says Arizona is 6-0 their last 6 trips to Husky Stadium in Seattle and will win this one in a hard-fought game in the trenches. Smash-mouth football belongs to the Cats' as our Running On Fumes play says to take the Arizona Wildcats & buy down to -2 1/2 for $200.