[19th Hole]

Posted by Guyc w/ 10.09 thread.
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Allen Eastman 10/10

$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 55 Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 10)
This is somewhat of a rivalry game between two in-state schools. And as a result I expect it to be a bit harder hitting and a bit more of a “grind” than normal. But mainly I think that the Central Michigan defense is going to smother the Eastern Michigan offense. EMU recently lost do-it-all quarterback Andy Schmidt and their attack is in completely diarray. Without their quarterback, EMU will be forced to try to run the ball more and shorten this game.In the last two years there have been 108 and 93 points scored. But this year the total is still only in the 50’s? I smell something fishy. The ‘under’ is 23-10 when Eastern Michigan plays on turf and it is 5-2 when they are on the road. The ‘under’ is 16-7 when EMU is an underdog of 10.5 or more and it is 9-4 when Central Michigan is a home favorite. I like a big CMU blowout and this one to settle somewhere around 38-10.

$500.00 Take ‘Under’ 46.5 Indiana at Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
Weather could be a factor in this game and, even before I read the weather report, I had already liked the ‘under’ in this game. This is kind of an awkward nonconference matchup and neither one of these teams nor coaches is very familiar with the other’s system. I think that’s going to lead to both clubs “dancing around the ring” a bit and we should see a very low-scoring affair. Indiana has gone ‘over’ in three straight games. But they really do not have that strong of an offense and have been relying on the big play to get the job done. This team is just 72nd in the country in yards gained and just 73rd in points scored. Virginia is the same thing. They have gone ‘over in two of three games. But they are 118th in total yards and a terrible 104th in points scored. If you add up the average points scored by UVA and points allowed by Virginia you only get 43.9. If you do the same for the UVA defense and IU offense you still only get 49.4. That leaves us right around that 46.5 and that’s where the teams got the numbers. But what those raw stats don’t consider is the quality of opponent and opposing offense and defense that the clubs have played. Virginia has scored less than 20 points in eight of 10 games and Indiana has managed less than 24 points in seven of 10.

$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 52.0 Ohio at Akron (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
This is really an important game for the Bobcats. But it’s going to be tough to go into the Rubber Bowl and get a win. This Ohio team scored 44 points in a shootout at Bowling Green last week but their veteran defense also got hit for 37 points. I think that they went back to the drawing board this week and got a lot of those problems corrected. They have faced two pretty good offenses (they played Tennessee the week before) and now I think that they will be able to slow down the Akron attack now that the Zips are without veteran quarterback Chris Jacquemain. Jacquemain has been suspended from the team and Akron has managed just 21 points per game in their last two outings. This team knows it won’t score as much as they were used to and will have to run the ball in order to keep this one close. I expect a very competitive game and I see these teams scoring three points per trip rather than seven. Ohio has been a good bounce back defense, going 1-4 against the total after giving up more than 280 passing yards. I think they come back strong and keep this one ‘under’.

$600 Take #329 Alabama (-5) over Mississippi (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
I simply think that Alabama is the much stronger team here. Nick Saban has his team going after a national title and I don’t think that they will slip up in Oxford. And all of the sharp money early in the week pushed this line up from 4.5. I’m going to follow that line movement because we’re still under that key number of a touchdown. This has been a really tight series lately but I actually think that the oddsmakers are trying to bait action on an inferior team (Ole Miss). This might be the best team that Alabama has had this decade and I just think that they are going to overpower an overrated Mississippi team. Ole Miss is a bit too much of a “finesse” team. And the last time Alabama faced a team like that (Arkansas) they won by four touchdowns. Alabama is 9-2 ATS as a favorite, 6-1 ATS on the road, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. I think that the Crimson Tide get a “statement” win and I think that they take this one by double digits.

$300.00 Take #391 Idaho (+4) over San Jose State (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
The Vandals are 5-0 ATS this year! So far Idaho has been the most profitable team in the country mainly because no one bets their games. A lot of people probably didn’t even know that they had a team! But they have started 4-0 and have been impressive while they are doing it. They actually covered three of their last four games to close last season so that’s an 8-1 ATS run for this program. San Jose State really is having problems moving the ball on offense.

[smallbluedonkey]

Originally Posted by 19th Hole

$600 Take #329 Alabama (-5) over Mississippi (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
I simply think that Alabama is the much stronger team here. Nick Saban has his team going after a national title and I don’t think that they will slip up in Oxford. And all of the sharp money early in the week pushed this line up from 4.5. I’m going to follow that line movement because we’re still under that key number of a touchdown. This has been a really tight series lately but I actually think that the oddsmakers are trying to bait action on an inferior team (Ole Miss). This might be the best team that Alabama has had this decade and I just think that they are going to overpower an overrated Mississippi team. Ole Miss is a bit too much of a “finesse” team. And the last time Alabama faced a team like that (Arkansas) they won by four touchdowns. Alabama is 9-2 ATS as a favorite, 6-1 ATS on the road, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. I think that the Crimson Tide get a “statement” win and I think that they take this one by double digits.

Doc (of Doc Sports) has a 5 unit play on the opposite side of this one...