[InTheHole]

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4 Unit Play. #3 Take Nebraska -3 ½ over Missouri (Thursday 9:00 pm ESPN) The Huskers were beaten by Missouri, 52-17, in Lincoln last year, but the lopsided loss was helped by an emotional loss the prior week by Nebraska to Virginia Tech and they were primed for a letdown in that spot. This is a very different Husker team and a totally different Tiger team. Granted, Missou will enter this game at 4-0 and they dominated a highly-rated Illinois team in the opener. But that win appears to be less and less impressive, as Illinois is in complete disarray. The Tigers have had to replace QB Chase Daniel, a talented WR corps, and some strong defenders, all of which are in the NFL. One just cannot replace that type of talent and now I expect the Tigers to struggle during Big 12 play.

As for the Huskers, their defense is for real and they have a strong running attack. They have already played a tough road game this season at Virginia Tech and lost, 16-15. They outgained the Hokies and should have won as a roadster. If Nebraska cannot beat this Missouri team, the program has simply not progressed as expected by most experts. I think Missou will lose their next three games with the first one coming here. Nebraska starts to regain their dominating form of year’s past with an impressive victory in Columbia. Nebraska 28, Missou 17.

“The Magnificent 7” Saturday, October 10th, 2009!

6 Unit Play. #99 Take Fresno State -9 ½ over Hawaii (Saturday 11 pm ESPN Gameplan) Top Game of the Weekend. Lets take a look at Fresno State first! They are currently 1-3, losing to Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road, and Boise State at home. Hawaii is 2-2 on the season, beating Washington State and Central Arkansas. Last week they got hammered by Louisiana Tech, 27-6. Note in that game they rushed for negative seven yards. There is just no comparison to the talent of opponents that each team has faced.

The Bulldogs will enter this game with revenge, losing 32-29 in overtime last year at Bulldog Stadium. In this game, they outgained the Warriors 522-342 but were done in by six turnovers. Now the Bulldogs return 15 starters with a punishing ground game playing against a defense that returns just two starters. Throw in the fact that Hawaii QB Greg Alexander is out for the season with a knee injury and back-up Brent Rausch is out with a broken finger. Fresno had last week off while the Warriors were making their longest flight of the season to Louisiana Tech.

Just want to mention that when reviewing the Bulldogs yardage thus far in 2009, it appears that they will be able to tear through this weak defense. Fresno must salvage their season here in order to get back on track for a bowl bid. Other then the fact that this game is being played in Hawaii, absolutely nothing else favors the Warriors. This may be the biggest gift of the season. No Rainbow for Hawaii, as the rout is on. Fresno State 42, Hawaii 10.

5 Unit Play. #88 Take Minnesota -3 ½ over Purdue (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Top Big 10 Selection. This is an important game for the Gophers as they and we are coming off a very disappointing performance last week against Wisconsin. But because of their loss, the oddsmakers have given us a very favorable line when they host Purdue this week at TCF Bank Stadium. The Gophers beat a similar Purdue team last year, 17-6, in West Lafayette and the 2009 Purdue squad is really hit hard by injuries. They will enter this game having lost four straight games, all of which have come by seven points or less. That really takes it toll and the schedule gets much more difficult in the future. Purdue led 21-3 last week at home against Northwestern before giving up 24 unanswered points and suffering the defeat. That kind of a setback carries over, especially when going on the road. The favorite has dominated this series, covering nine of the last ten meetings and I expected the Gophers to be laying a touchdown. Laying just half of that is too good to pass up, as Minnesota gets back on track and we collect big in the process as well. Minnesota 31, Purdue 20.

5 Unit Play. #16 Take Ole Miss +5 ½ over Alabama (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Top Underdog Play. The Rebels have lost five straight to the Tide and the last four have been by four points or less. Have to like that stat when getting this many points with a home underdog. Ole Miss is in good hands under Coach Houston Nutt. You can bet that he will have his team ready emotionally and they have the guns to pull the upset, returning 16 starters from 2008. The Rebels are flying under the radar, as they already have a loss in 2009 at South Carolina.

I like the fact that Alabama is playing the second of back-to-back road games, as they were in Lexington last week. If you are a stat player, Coach Houston Nutt is 6-0 ATS as a home dog playing against an opponent with a winning percentage of .800 or better. In my opinion, the talent between these two teams is equal and taking the points at home is the only call. The last four has seen the winning margin four points or less and I will call it again, but the Rebels pull the straight-up victory. Ole Miss 24, Alabama 20.

4 Unit Play. #44 Take Under 48 ½ in Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Totals Play. The Badgers hurt us last week in their victory at the Twin Cities. However, they have yet to see this kind of defense. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the Big Ten. QB Scott Tolzien has played outstanding thus far in 2009 but playing in Columbus is a completely different than what he has seen thus far. A punishing defense and a hostile crowd will present challenges he has yet to experience. I do not expect Wisconsin to be able to run the football and that will create problems in the passing game.

As for Ohio State, it is more of the same with a strong defense and an average offense. QB Terrelle Pryor is just an average passer and he does not have a strong running game with the departure of Beanie Wells to the Arizona Cardinals. When you add it all up, this looks to be low scoring and I expect Wisconsin to struggle to reach double digits. The UNDER gets the call. Ohio State 28, Wisconsin 10.

4 Unit Play. #54 Take UCLA + 3 ½ over Oregon (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) This is another home underdog that has an excellent chance to win straight-up. The quarterback position is a real question for both teams. QB Kevin Prince is expected to be back for the Bruins while QB Jeremiah Masoli may be out for the year with a knee injury. The Ducks also have a couple of other injuries and illnesses that have hit the club this week. Look for Coach Neuheisel to get this squad back on track after a loss to Stanford. QB Prince will give the Bruins a shot in the arm with his passing ability. This is Oregon’s first road game since the opener at Boise State and this really looks to be a low scoring game. Got to love the homer getting points. UCLA 20, Oregon 17.

4 Unit Play. #69 Take Connecticut +8 over Pittsburgh (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) One of the best unknown coaches in the country is Randy Edsall at Connecticut. I Like his style and with a week off he will have a great plan of attack for the Pittsburgh Panthers. UCONN lost last year, 34-10, but one has to wonder how that happened when looking at the yardage. Pittsburgh had only 228 yards. However, five turnovers did them in. This same defense should be more than the Panthers can handle in 2009. QB Cory Endres has looked good for the Huskies and he has the weapons to put points on the board. I certainly have to give the coaching edge to Edsall over Wannstedt, especially with the revenge factor. Would like to call the upset, but the Panthers will win by a whisker. Pittsburgh 24, Connecticut 21.

4 Unit Play. #86 Take LSU +7 ½ over Florida (Saturday 8 pm CBS) Not sure if LSU is as good as their record would indicate. However, this team is talented and will have the desire to pull the upset against the No. 1 team in the country. No question that Florida deserves their ranking with an outstanding defense, but one has to wonder how the offense will react with QB Tebow questionable with a concussion. Over the years I have won a high percentage of games playing a team that falls into this category: two undefeated teams, playing for the conference lead, backing the home underdog. The stat that really opens my eyes is the Tigers record when playing night games in the last decade. They are 43-4 straight-up and will enter Saturday having won their last 32 night games at Tiger Stadium.

With or without Tebow, the Gators are in for a WAR! I really like the fact that I am getting over a touchdown with a team that has won 32 straight home night games. Now make it 33! LSU 28, Florida 24. Note: Bet this game early if you can, the line will go way down in Tebow is ruled out.

5 Unit Play. #118 Take Under 41 in Atlanta @ San Francisco (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) The 49ers have been one of the most surprising teams in the NFL, currently sitting a 3-1 and just a hail mary pass away from being 4-0. Much of the success of the 49ers can be attributed to a strong physical defense led by their head coach Mike Singletary. They have allowed just 13.5 points per game and held two of their opponents under 11 points. Atlanta will enter with a strong running game led by Michael Turner and that also bodes well for playing the under, since the clock will keep running for most of the game. I expect neither team to reach the 20s in scoring and we will not worry who comes out on top in this game by a field goal. Instead we will easily collect with the under. San Francisco 17, Atlanta 14.

4 Unit Play. #106 Take Carolina -3 ½ over Washington (Sunday 12 pm Fox) The Panthers have yet to win a game in 2009, but are coming off a much needed bye week and I expect them to right the ship this Sunday hosting the Redskins. The Redskins have played a very easy schedule thus far and are only 2-2 including a loss to the Detroit Lions. QB Delhomme has been terrible thus far, but I still think he has more ability then QB Campbell. Washington is just 1-4 ATS in their last six road games (1 tie) and failed to put away three of the worst teams in the league (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay) the last three weeks. The now face a minor step up in class, as the Panthers finally put it together and play a complete game for 60 minutes. Carolina 24, Washington 16.

4 Unit Play. #124 Take Seattle -1 over Jacksonville (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Jaguars will make a long cross country flight to take on the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest Sunday at Qwest Field in Seattle, WA. The Hawks have been in a bit of disarray again this season with the injury to QB Matt Hasselbeck and as of this writing he is questionable to play on Sunday. Either way, the Hawks will win and move to 2-3 on the 2009 season. Jacksonville has not traveled this far since 2005 and Qwest Field is one of the noisiest venues in the entire league. The Hawks put pressure on QB David Garrard and I am not sold on the Jags receivers with their ability to beat teams deep. Seattle wins in a match-up of similar team where home field is the major deciding factor. Seattle 27, Jacksonville 17. Note: Line my change on this game with QB Hasselbeck's status, we still recommend the pick.

4 Unit Play. #126 Take Over 46 in Indianapolis @ Tennessee (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) One might figure that the Colts would be favored by more points in this game, but the Titans still warrant respect even though they enter this game at 0-4. Much of this is due to the fact that the Titans are not same team on defense with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. They are giving up 27 points per game and that does not bode well when playing the high-powered Indianapolis Colts led by All-Pro QB Peyton Manning. The Colts are averaging 26 ½ points and will enter this one at LP Field with an unblemished 4-0 record. This is a primetime game and I do not expect the Titans to get blown out and thus in order for them to keep pace, they must be able to match the scoring from Manning and company. They do and thus this one goes easily over the posted number. Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 24.

Strong Opinion Plays:
#54 Take Under 46 ½ in Oregon at UCLA
#84 Take Under 48 in Michigan at Iowa
#116 Take St. Louis +10 over Minnesota

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports. Your next update will be Thursday, October 15th, 2009 at 6pm eastern. Please remember that we usually wait to update some of our streaks until all the games are completed each week.

[19th Hole]

Nice language skills, amigo.