MLB Special - Cardinals/Dodgers

1.5 RUNS,LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Wolf)-vs- St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter

3* #954 LOS ANGELES Run Line +1.5 runs -150 over ST. LOUIS

It should cost a small fortune to get a team as good as the Dodgers, and a pitcher as good and as on form as Randy Wolf, +1.5 runs when the Total on a game is ?7?. It tells us that both we have a strong package working for us, and also that the run itself is extremely valuable, because there are so few being projected. But the marketplace is allowing Los Angeles to be played on the Run Line at excellent value here, and that gets us in play. We can let some of the raw numbers do the work for us. Wolf worked to a solid 11-7/3.28 this season but picked it up when needed most down the stretch ? over his last 10 starts it was a 6-1/2.81. By having impeccable control (only 58 walks in 214.1 innings) he eliminates the opportunities for the opposition to have a big inning, and that is particularly important in a Run Line setting. So how does Wolf stack up in that category? The Dodgers were 26-8 as +1.5 behind him this season, including 9-1 in his strong run over the last 10 games. And in all games on this field the Dodgers were 58-23 as +1.5, courtesy of having George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton to handle the latter innings, and a defense that rated #1 in the Majors on our best set of ratings. This is a difficult team to put out of a game. St. Louis counters with Chris Carpenter, odds-on to win the N.L. Cy Young, and that Albert Pujols/Matt Holliday combo in the middle of the lineup that is so dangerous. But they were just 14-14 as -1.5 in Carpenter?s starts this season, largely because there are weaknesses elsewhere. They lack table setters at the top of the order, which reduces the Pujols/Holliday impact, and closer Ryan Franklin worked to a wobbly 6.75 since September 1st, with a 2.68 WHIP that was even worse, keyed by a frightening 10 walks in 9.1 innings. He was only successful in one of his final four save opportunities, and has only thrown one inning since September 26th.