[cahustler]

Ben Burns

Burns' Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE YEAR! **8-1 YTD**

Analysis: I'm playing on Middle Tennessee State and Troy to finish OVER the total. These teams have seen the 'under' go 4-0 the last four seasons. However, I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. The last two meetings have both come very close to going over the total. Last year's game had an o/u line of 49.5 and finished with 48 combined points. The previous season, the teams combined for 52 points in a game which had an o/u line in the high 50s. In both cases, the Tro†jans did their part. In 2007, Troy finished with 45 points and last year the Trojans tallied 31. However, the Blue Raiders averaged only 12 points, scoring seven in 2007 and 17 last season. I expect the Trojans to again top the 30 mark tonight. Only this time, I also expect the Blue Raiders to chip in enough to help the game finish above the number.

Playing on the road and facing a tough Clemson defense, the Blue Raiders managed only 14 points in their opener. However, since then, they've topped the 30 point mark in all three of their games. In fact, they've been scoring progressively more points every time that they've taken the field. They followed up their 14 point effort at Clemson by scoring 31 vs. Memphis. That was followed by an impressive 32-31 victory at Maryland. Last time out, they scored a whopping 37 at North Texas. Not surprisingly, three of their four games have eclipsed the total.

Off three straight victories, it should also be noted that the Blue Raiders have now seen the OVER go a profitable 5-1 the last 2+ seasons, when coming off two or more consecutive wins. Here, QB Dwight Dasher will face a Troy defense which is giving up more than 260 passing yards per game. Note that Dasher has already thrown for more than 1000 yards (with seven TDs) while adding 250+ rushing yards and three rushing TD's.

As for the Trojans, they're still the class of the conference. After a disappointing loss at Bowling Green in their opener, they got blown out at The Swamp by the Gators. Throw that one out the window as the Gators would do the same to nearly every team in the country. They've since responded with back to back SU/ATS victories, scoring 27 two weeks ago and 30 vs. Arkansas State last week. Back home and with the national spotlight on them, I expect a big effort from the offense. Note that the Trojans have seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times that they faced a team with a winning record.

Both these teams returned significantly more players on offense than they did on defense this year. I expect that to be evident here with tonight's game proving to be the highest series meeting since these teams started having o/u lines in their games against each other. *9 Top Sun Belt Total