[InTheHole]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit (86-76) at Minnesota (86-76)

The final piece of baseball’s postseason puzzle will fall into place today at the Metrodome as the Twins host the Tigers in a one-game playoff with the winner claiming the A.L. Central title. Minnesota will hand the ball to Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA), while Detroit counters with rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04).

The Tigers had a seven-game lead on Minnesota back on Sept. 6 when it scored four runs in the top of the ninth to rally past the Rays 5-3 in Tampa. After that victory – which capped a six-game winning streak – Detroit went on to lose 15 of its last 26 games, going 5-7 on the road. However, facing a must-win situation Sunday against the White Sox, the Tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held on 5-3 to force this one-game playoff.

The Twins caught Detroit by closing the regular season on a four-game winning streak, starting with Thursday’s 8-3 victory in Motown, followed by a three-game home sweep of the Royals. In addition to the current winning streak Minnesota won 16 of its final 20 games, including eight of its last nine at the Metrodome. During the 16-4 season-ending surge, the Twins went 4-3 against Detroit.

These squads split a four-game, three-day series in Detroit last week, and they’ve split the last 10 meetings, all since the beginning of August. The Twins ended up taking the season series 11-7, going 7-2 at home. Furthermore, going back more than 10 years, Minnesota is 61-28 against the Tigers at the Metrodome.

Detroit enters this contest in slumps of 1-5 against right-handed starters and 27-58 as a road underdog, but it is 5-1 in its last six playoff games as a pup. Minnesota, in addition to its 16-4 overall run, is on hot streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 71-32 as a home chalk, 20-6 against right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory, 21-7 against the A.L. Central, 20-7 on Tuesday and 28-11 after an off day. On the downside, the Twins have dropped 13 of their last 16 playoff games, including seven straight postseason contests in the Metrodome.

Porcello faced the Twins on Tuesday and held them to one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings getting a no-decision in Detroit’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss. In four starts against the Twins this year, the 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. He went 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in the Metrodome this season, pitching just 10 innings.

Porcello is 4-1 with two no-decisions since Aug. 28, but the Tigers have alternated wins and losses in his last six outings. He’s 6-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 15 road starts, with the Tigers going 7-8, including 1-4 in the last five on the highway.

With the Twins staring at elimination, Baker faced the Tigers on Thursday and allowed one run (unearned) on five hits over five innings of an 8-3 road win. Baker also faced the Tigers at home on Sept. 20 and yielded four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. For his career, the right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 career starts versus Detroit covering 95 2/3 innings, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts (20 innings) this season. Baker is 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 home efforts this year.

With Baker on the mound, Minnesota is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home (all as a favorite), 10-2 against A.L. Central foes, 20-7 as a favorite and 5-1 on Tuesday.

With Porcello pitching, the under is on runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 9-3 against A.L. Central rivals and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, and all four of his starts versus Minnesota this year stayed low. However, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five road starts and 3-1-1 in his last five on Tuesday. Behind Baker, the Twins are on “under” streaks of 5-2-2 overall and 3-0-1 at home (all as a favorite), but the over is 17-6-1 in his last 24 starts against divisional foes, including 6-1 in his last seven versus Detroit.

As a team, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 3-1-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2-1 after a victory, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 11-4-2 on Tuesday. The Twins carry “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall (all against A.L. Central foes), 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-2 on Tuesday. However, the under is 4-0-1 in the past five Tigers-Twins clashes in Minnesota.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Middle Tennessee St. (3-1 SU and ATS) at Troy (2-2 SU and ATS)

Middle Tennessee State shoots for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory when it travels to Troy, Ala., for a Sun Belt Conference clash with the Trojans at Movie Gallery Stadium.

The Blue Raiders got drubbed 37-14 at Clemson as an 18½-point road ‘dog to open their campaign, but they’ve since ridden a hot offense to three straight wins and covers over Memphis (31-14 at home), Maryland (32-31 on the road) and North Texas (37-21 on the road).

Troy began the season with a two ugly non-conference road losses, falling 31-14 at Bowling Green as a seven-point chalk and 56-6 to top-ranked Florida as a 36½-point ‘dog. However, the Trojans rebounded with a pair of Sun Belt victories over UAB (27-14 as a six-point home chalk) and Arkansas State (30-27 as a 2½-point road underdog).

Troy is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll against the Blue Raiders, including a 31-17 rout as a six-point road chalk in last year’s season opener for both teams and a 45-7 thrashing as a 13-point home choice in 2007. The favorite has cashed in six of seven meetings this decade, with the visitor going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four.

The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Middle Tennessee’s last seven overall, 7-0 ATS in Troy’s last seven overall and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.

The Blue Raiders are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 12-3 when playing in October, 4-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 following a spread-cover, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 2-8-1 in Sun Belt games, 0-4 after a bye week and 2-5 as a road pup.

The Trojans are on ATS surges of 7-3 at home, 4-1 in conference, 4-1 in October, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 13-5 after a SU victory and 4-0 after a bye.

Middle Tennessee carries nothing but “over” trends, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 6-0 as a road pup, 4-0 in October and 4-1 in Sun Belt action. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in Troy’s last four at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 in its last six as a chalk, 6-1-1 in its last eight in October and 8-0-1 in its last nine after a bye. Finally, the last four series clashes between these schools have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY and UNDER