It's playoff time baby! And it's definitely not a good long-term play to bet 'over' in playoff games. These are like all playoff games: lower scoring, closer to the vest, more conservatively played and managed, and always more of an 'under' wager. However, I think we have a great situation here for this one to actually get 'over' and be more of a high scoring game.
First, let's start with the pitchers. Rick Porcello worries me a bit because he is off extra rest and this year he has a 2.79 ERA in 10 starts on five days' rest. Also, the 'under' is 4-0 when he starts against the Twins. But that's really it. The playoff thing and the Porcello thing are really the only things working against us. Everything else is gravy. Porcello has gone 'under' in his four starts against the Twins this year, but he also had a 6.30 ERA in his two starts in the Metrodome. Plus, his last start was - wouldn't you know - against the Twins in Detroit. Porcello has not been as strong this year away from home (4.30 ERA on the road) and since the Twins saw him less than a week ago (and he shut them down) then I think that his stuff will be fresh in their minds. The same thing goes for Scott Baker. The Tigers just saw Baker last Thursday and now he's throwing again. In that game he didn't allow a run in six innings of work. Also, before Baker's strong outing in Detroit he had gotten rocked by the Tigers. His ERA against them was 9.00 this season (overall it is still 6.75 this year) and he's gotten knocked around by a lineup that is really strong against right-handed bats.
So we have two starters - neither one of which has dominating stuff - throwing against two lineups that just saw them less than a week ago, with the pitchers winning Round 1. You see this all the time during the regular season and it's actually part of a mini-system that I use to handicap. And it always goes opposite. If a pitcher (or in this instance both starters) threw against a team within the last 10-12 days whichever unit dominated (the hitters or the pitchers) more often than not the second meeting goes the other way. So if a starter gets roughed up for six runs in three innings in one start, then nine days later gets another crack at the lineup, more times than not that game will go 'under' the total (regardless of the pitcher's performance) because everyone in the Majors makes adjustments. I know, it's not very scientific. But trust me, it's legit.
So, we have two guys that pitch to contact. Porcello only has 82 K's on the year and Baker is definitely not an overpowering arm. It's not like we have a Johan Santana or a Justin Verlander on the hill that we're playing against here. We have two second- (or even third-) tier guys on the hill against two pretty potent lineups. Minnesota has been killing the ball and is 5-0-1 against the total in their last six games. They have been smoking. And Detroit's lineup is full of veteran guys that have played and had success in these situations. Mix in some shaky bullpens and we're in business.
And the ace in the hole: Randy Marsh. Yup, I know who the home plate ump is for this game and it is the clincher. Marsh is No. 13 (of 85; No. 11 in terms of guys with 10 or more games called) in terms of tightest umpires in baseball. Interestingly enough, he was the ump in Detroit in Porcello's last start. The kid threw 111 pitches in six innings. I'll take that again. Also, that game went 'under'. In fact, all three of Marsh's last three behind the dish have gone 'under'. Prior to that he was 18-9 against the total. He has one of the tightest zones in baseball and this year he AVERAGED 27.3 base runners per game. That number was fifth in all of baseball umps with over 10 games behind the plate. He makes guys throw strikes. Correction: he makes guys groove pitches to tuned-in batters.
So that's it. The number was immediately bet up to 8.5 when the line was released and the juice on it went from 'over' paying out around +115 last night to now being an even-steven -110. I like the pitching matchup for a big batter bounce back, and I love the ump. It's a good spot, and hopefully it will get over. I expect a slow start as everyone gets worked in. But the pitch counts will rise and there will be plenty of jams to work out of in the early innings. We'll get into the bullpens, and that's when this one is going to go 'over'. I also see a dramatic come-from-behind win late for the Twins. Detroit is backing into this game, they never play well in Minnesota (27-58 in their last 85 games there), there is bad karma from Miggy Cabrera getting the cops called on him for being wasted Sunday morning around 6 a.m., and Minnesota just has a touch of destiny in them right now. I like 6-5, Twins.
(I understand that not everyone will be able to play that 5-Inning line. In fact, in three years of MLB that's the first five-inning line that I've ever released! But, as you can see, it's a half-Unit play, so I wouldn't worry about it. If you are posting online your book should 100 percent have a section that allows you to play 5-inning line.)
Ferringo 10-6-09
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