10-05-09, 07:28 PM
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#1
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JM Hockey Thread
*Disclaimer: First of all, I am not a JM fan. I have never used one of his systems although there are people all over this forum who swear by his basketball and baseball systems. I read a post the other day outlining his hockey system and I thought I'd go ahead and keep track of it throughout the season. In summary, I am merely posting the plays here to keep a record. I do not get official emails from him. I do not subscribe to his system. I am posting plays that were derived from me going through the schedule and selecting teams based on his system's criteria.
First, the rules as I understand them: - Three (or more) game road trips
- Must play a team from the opposite conference at least once during the three (or more) game trip
- Play favorites on the moneyline, dogs on the puckline
- Three game chase
For curiosity's sake, I am also going to be posting the ever present "unofficial" picks as well. "Unofficial" plays will follow the same rules as above but we will exclude rule #2. So basically ANY three (or more) game road trip will qualify regardless of opponent conference.
If anyone has input or I am interpreting something wrong, please let me know.
As of this posting, we have already had a couple plays within both the official and unofficial systems. Here are those plays and their status:
Official:
10/1/09 - Montreal (A) - ML +102, PL -279 - *WIN SU*
10/3/09 - Phoenix (A) - ML +132, PL -234 - *WIN SU*
Unofficial:
10/1/09 - San Jose (A) - ML -176 - *LOSS*
10/3/09 - San Jose (B) - ML -112 - *WIN*
Ok, now you're probably wondering why I posted both the ML and PL for the official dogs. This is my own personal bias. I hate laying -250 on anything and I thought it would be interesting to keep track of straight up dog winners. Plus, as you can probably imagine, chasing to a C game using -250 will tie up A LOT of money, so it will be interesting. I will use the PL for record keeping though. I will also be using the standard "JM method" of record keeping - meaning we will count series wins and losses, not individual games. (Yes, I know it's hokey)
So as it stands, going into tonight the official record is:
Official: 2-0 +2 units
Unofficial: 1-0 +1 unit
Last edited by ElCapitan; 10-05-09 at 08:51 PM.
Reason: Edited dog wins to designate as SU winners
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Points Awarded:
 Dzuro gave ElCapitan 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
joanapoker gave ElCapitan 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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10-05-09, 07:31 PM
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#2
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10/5/09 Play
We do have an unofficial play for tonight, 10/5/09.
Columbus Blue Jackets - ML +135, PL -214
Last edited by ElCapitan; 10-06-09 at 12:48 AM.
Reason: changed "official" to "unofficial"
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10-06-09, 12:49 AM
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#3
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Columbus comes through. Record is now:
Official: 2-0 +2 units
Unofficial: 2-0 +2 unit
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10-06-09, 12:51 AM
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#4
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10/6/09 Plays
Two plays going on 10/6/09.
Official: Anaheim Ducks - ML +118, PL -260
Unofficial: Dallas Stars - ML +121, PL -235
Last edited by ElCapitan; 10-06-09 at 12:55 AM.
Reason: Bolding plays
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10-06-09, 07:20 PM
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#5
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hey capt--are you playing the money line on the dogs on system plays (both official and un official) or are you laying the juice on the pl
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10-06-09, 10:03 PM
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#6
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Personally, if I was betting them, I would play the ML but JM's "official" system says to play the PL. As I said in the original post, if you play the PL and get to a C bet, you'll have A LOT of money out there.
Worst case, if your team was a dog all three plays at an average of -250, this is how it would play out:
A bet loses - -2.5 units
B bet loses - -11.25 units (We had to bet 8.75 units to attempt to make our 2.5+1 back)
C bet loses - -41.87 units (We had to bet 30.62 units to make back the 8.75+2.5 and then win 1)
Now I know it's probably odd that you'd have a dog all three nights, but that is still a lot of units potentially wagered.
I'll keep records for both ways just to see how it works out.
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10-06-09, 11:57 PM
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#7
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capt-thanks this is the first year im betting hockey and will follow you guys on this--it seems like a great system but you are right if you go to a c bet there is a lot of cash to on the line. i'm going to play the puck line and lay the juice in the beginning and see how the numbers play out.
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10-07-09, 12:20 AM
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#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitan
Personally, if I was betting them, I would play the ML but JM's "official" system says to play the PL. As I said in the original post, if you play the PL and get to a C bet, you'll have A LOT of money out there.
Worst case, if your team was a dog all three plays at an average of -250, this is how it would play out:
A bet loses - -2.5 units
B bet loses - -11.25 units (We had to bet 8.75 units to attempt to make our 2.5+1 back)
C bet loses - -41.87 units (We had to bet 30.62 units to make back the 8.75+2.5 and then win 1)
Now I know it's probably odd that you'd have a dog all three nights, but that is still a lot of units potentially wagered.
I'll keep records for both ways just to see how it works out.
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road teams are normally +money in nhl, not always but pretty often. Tonite PL 2-0 and ML 0-2... I think MM is more important than playing ML over PL.
egr99
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10-07-09, 12:48 AM
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#9
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As tonight's plays come to a close, it turns out we did need the PL in both games.
Official: Anaheim Ducks - ML +118, PL -260
Unofficial: Dallas Stars - ML +121, PL -235
This dual record keeping is going to be rough because ML bets may advance to the next bet while the PL stops, but I'll try to keep up with it for a while.
Record:
Official Plays using ML: 2-1 (+1.34) - we take Anaheim on Thursday as a B bet
Official Plays using PL: 3-0 (+3.00) - next series on 10/8/09
Unofficial Plays using ML: 2-2 (+1.35)
Unofficial Plays using PL: 3-1 (+3.00)
I'll be posting the next wagers shortly.
Last edited by ElCapitan; 10-07-09 at 12:57 AM.
Reason: fixing dates
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10-07-09, 12:56 AM
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#10
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No plays on Wednesday. There are about 5 plays on Thursday. I'll post those tomorrow when the lines come out.
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10-07-09, 01:00 AM
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#11
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Suck, Fuc, Lick Combination
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10-07-09, 01:09 AM
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#12
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10-07-09, 04:48 PM
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#13
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El Capitan 
thank you! |
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10-07-09, 05:42 PM
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#14
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Just a quick mention, saw it posted JM 1st official release is Oct 11th. Maybe you can also keep track of those..LOL
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10-07-09, 05:56 PM
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#15
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Yeah, it seems I keep getting bits and pieces of his "rules". The first set I got said any 3+ game road trip is good with a non-conference opponent but now I read that the non-conf opponent has to be one of the first 3 teams. I also see it's been added to not play the first road trip. 
I'll continue on with what I'm doing as it seems to be working. I'm sure I'll get on the same page when Oct 11th hits as it's not that hard to identify plays. |
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10-07-09, 08:10 PM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawk007
Just a quick mention, saw it posted JM 1st official release is Oct 11th. Maybe you can also keep track of those..LOL
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Where did you see it posted?
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10-07-09, 11:43 PM
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#17
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Thursday 10/8/09 Plays
Ok, here are the plays for Thursday:
Some of the lines are not listed but I'll post anyway
Official
Anaheim Ducks +150 (B) - only if you're playing dogs on the ML
Atlanta Thrashers (A)
Colorado Avalanche (A) - this game is off the board so we might start this series Saturday
Unofficial
Minnesota Wild (A)
New Jersey Devils (A)
Pittsburgh Penguins (A)
I'll edit this post as lines become available.
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10-07-09, 11:46 PM
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#18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawk007
Just a quick mention, saw it posted JM 1st official release is Oct 11th. Maybe you can also keep track of those..LOL
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I'd like to know what this is because there are only two games on 10/11/09 and neither of them are anywhere close to falling within any of the criteria.
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10-08-09, 12:12 AM
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#19
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Suck, Fuc, Lick Combination
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10-08-09, 09:30 AM
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#20
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I must have the date wrong. Forgot where I saw it, will check around for that post today.
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10-08-09, 09:43 AM
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#21
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It's posted in McBains thread by chili cheese dog. He says he is a client and received an email stating this. October 10 is the supposed date.
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10-08-09, 10:04 AM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitan
Ok, here are the plays for Thursday:
Some of the lines are not listed but I'll post anyway
Official
Anaheim Ducks +150 (B) - only if you're playing dogs on the ML
Atlanta Thrashers (A)
Colorado Avalanche (A) - this game is off the board so we might start this series Saturday
Unofficial
Minnesota Wild (A)
New Jersey Devils (A)
Pittsburgh Penguins (A)
I'll edit this post as lines become available.
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what is the difference between an "unofficial" and "official" play? and are we playing both the official and unofficial during the season.
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10-08-09, 10:05 AM
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#23
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never mind i figured it out --i thought it involved the conference games but wasn't sure--thaks
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10-08-09, 10:07 AM
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#24
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why was colorado dropped as a play?
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10-08-09, 01:27 PM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khaden
why was colorado dropped as a play?
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It wasn't dropped by the system. It was dropped because it was off the board due to a couple injuries for Nashville. I see a line is posted now.
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10-08-09, 01:31 PM
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#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khaden
what is the difference between an "unofficial" and "official" play? and are we playing both the official and unofficial during the season.
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You figured out the difference between official and unofficial. You can play whichever ones you want. I am playing both for VERY small stakes just for the sake of record keeping. I'm really just doing this more for an experiment and to compare notes with other posters on SBR!
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10-08-09, 01:44 PM
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#27
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Plays for Thursday 10/8/09 - NOW WITH LINES!
Official
Anaheim Ducks +146(B) - only if you're playing dogs on the ML
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML +144, PL -197
Colorado Avalanche (A) ML +120, PL -246
Unofficial
Minnesota Wild (A) ML +104, PL -288
New Jersey Devils (A) ML -101, PL -305 (WOW)
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML +127, PL -229
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10-08-09, 07:51 PM
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#28
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Gym Teacher - A Wise career chocie!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitan
Official
Anaheim Ducks +146(B) - only if you're playing dogs on the ML
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML +144, PL -197
Colorado Avalanche (A) ML +120, PL -246
Unofficial
Minnesota Wild (A) ML +104, PL -288
New Jersey Devils (A) ML -101, PL -305 (WOW)
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML +127, PL -229
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Captain
The work you are doing is great!
thanks for the work and keep it up.
Also everyone remember favs early dogs late
look at how the lines work and use them in your favor. after a bit you will notice they make a lot of mistakes when the lines come out and, with us being able to know what plays are coming it allows us to be prepared to jump on a line when necessary.
These are BetJam
Official
Anaheim Ducks (B) ML opened @ +145 closed @+145 (no movement) only if you're playing dogs on the ML
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML opened @+115, PL opened @-225
Colorado Avalanche (A) ML +120, PL opened @-245
Unofficial
Minnesota Wild (A) ML opened @+100 PL opened @-285 (uggh)
New Jersey Devils (A) ML -110 closed -117, PL opened -1.5 opened @ +245 closed @ +245(WOW)
pitt started ML opened @+121 closed @+131 PL opened -245 closed -230
an interesteing thing about the New Jersey game is that on a few books they had it for +1.5 with some STUPID odds -300+ and then on some as in BetJam they had the -1.5 with +240+ odds. now looking at it more they wre the bigger fav as well so who knows but it may have been a better play.
Both NJ and TB started with -110 on BetJam just an observation.
ATL, COL, MIN are not closed yet.
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10-09-09, 01:48 AM
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#29
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Interesting night here:
Official
Anaheim Ducks +146(B) - only if you're playing dogs on the ML *WIN*
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML +144, PL -197 *WIN, WIN*
Colorado Avalanche (A) ML +120, PL -246*LOSS*,*WIN*
Unofficial
Minnesota Wild (A) ML +104, PL -288 *LOSS, LOSS*
New Jersey Devils (A) ML -101, PL -305 (WOW) *WIN, WIN*
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML +127, PL -229[/quote] *WIN, WIN*
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10-09-09, 02:01 AM
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#30
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That should make the record:
Record:
Official Plays using ML: 4-2 (+3.24)
Official Plays using PL: 5-0 (+5.00)
Unofficial Plays using ML: 4-3 (+2.62)
Unofficial Plays using PL: 5-2 (+2.12)
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10-09-09, 02:15 AM
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#31
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Next plays look like this:
Official:
10/10/09 Colorado Avalanche (B) - ML play if you're playing dogs on the ML
10/10/09 LA Kings (A) - ML & PL, new series - this is probably the first emailed JM play
Unofficial:
10/9/09 Dallas Stars (B) +150 - ML play if you're playing dogs on the ML
10/10/09 Minnesota Wild (B) - ML & PL - they lost 6-3 on 10/8/09
Note the Dallas play is on Friday. The rest are Saturday plays.
Last edited by ElCapitan; 10-09-09 at 02:22 AM.
Reason: Unofficial play on MIN not a new series
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10-09-09, 02:19 AM
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#32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitan
That should make the record:
Record:
Official Plays using ML: 4-2 (+3.24)
Official Plays using PL: 5-0 (+5.00)
Unofficial Plays using ML: 4-3 (+2.62)
Unofficial Plays using PL: 5-2 (+2.12)
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Thanks for the great effort!
When you say that official plays are 4-2, you mean that one game is one play, right? Just to clarify, since JM himself counts an entire series of games as one play.
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10-09-09, 02:26 AM
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#33
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A quick note about the unofficial play for Friday:
If you played Dallas on the ML on 10/8/09 you lost 1 unit. Dallas is +150 right now for Saturday, so you will be betting 1.3 units to win 2.
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10-09-09, 02:28 AM
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#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by superduperjacob
Thanks for the great effort!
When you say that official plays are 4-2, you mean that one game is one play, right? Just to clarify, since JM himself counts an entire series of games as one play.
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Yes. I hate keeping track of series. I'll keep track of individual game records but I will be betting as if I were chasing.
If you are a "JM purist" all you should be concerned with is the units won for the "Official plays using PL".
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10-09-09, 02:47 AM
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#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitan
Yes. I hate keeping track of series. I'll keep track of individual game records but I will be betting as if I were chasing.
If you are a "JM purist" all you should be concerned with is the units won for the "Official plays using PL".
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That's what I thought - thanks!
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