Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Brett Favre makes his much-anticipated first-ever start against his former team when the Packers visit the Metrodome for a matchup against the Vikings.
After 15 seasons with Green Bay, Favre “retired” following the 2007 playoffs only to play the 2008 season with the Jets and “retire” again before signing with Minnesota in August. Now he faces the Packers, the team with whom he earned three consecutive league MVP awards and led to a Super Bowl title in the mid-1990s.
Green Bay has won five of the last six matchups in this rivalry, but Minnesota scored a 28-27 victory last November at home, falling short as a 2½-point favorite. The Packers have gotten the cash in four straight series clashes and five of six in Minnesota. Also, the underdog is 16-5 ATS over the past 10-plus seasons, and the road team has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Favre’s successor, Aaron Rodgers has the Packers at 2-1 after last week’s 36-17 road win in St. Louis, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Rodgers passed for 269 yards and two TDs against the Rams while RB Ryan Grant contributed 99 rushing yards. Rodgers has thrown for 714 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions this season.
Favre has the Vikings shooting for their first 4-0 start since 2003 after his amazing 32-yard, game-winning touchdown pass with two seconds left to beat the Niners 27-24 last Sunday in his home opener. However, after cashing in the first two games on the road, Minnesota came up short as a seven-point favorite versus San Frnacisco. Favre has thrown for 566 yards with five TDs and one INT as a Viking.
Green Bay is on several positive ATS runs, including 15-5-1 on the road, 3-1-1 in October, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-1 against NFC North foes and 4-1 against teams with winning records.
Minnesota comes into this as a betting risk, currently on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-4 in Week 4 games, 1-4 against the NFC, 1-4 in October, 2-6 against division rivals and 3-11 after a SU win.
Under the Monday night spotlight, Green Bay is 26-27-1 SU (29-24-1 ATS), while the Vikings are 24-24 SU (23-24-1 ATS) all time.
The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 20-6-1 against NFC squads, 7-3 against division rivals and 5-2-1 as a road ‘dog. Conversely, the Vikings are on “under” streaks of 4-1 against the NFC, 8-3 on Monday and 28-13-1 after a SU win. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in 12 of 18 meetings overall and seven of nine in Minnesota.
Finally, the four of the first five Monday Night Football games this season have topped the total.
Sports Advisors 10-5-09
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