Note - As I expected, the public has made its move on Minnesota, pushing this line up slightly by 1/2 point, up to 4 most places with a few 4 1/2's floating around. Obviously the key is shopping for the best price, but no matter the case, buy down the 1/2 point whether you get this game at 4, 4 1/2 (or 3 1/2 if you're lucky). My regular followers know I'm a firm believer in buying down on or around 4 because of the number of games that end 31-27, 28-24, 24-20, 17-13, 14-10, etc. And that's a trend that has only escalated over the years since the advant of the two-point conversion and its successful deployment.
Note - As I expected, the public has made its move on Minnesota, pushing this line up slightly by 1/2 point, up to 4 most places with a few 4 1/2's floating around. Obviously the key is shopping for the best price, but no matter the case, buy down the 1/2 point whether you get this game at 4, 4 1/2 (or 3 1/2 if you're lucky). My regular followers know I'm a firm believer in buying down on or around 4 because of the number of games that end 31-27, 28-24, 24-20, 17-13, 14-10, etc. And that's a trend that has only escalated over the years since the advent of the two-point conversion and its successful deployment.
Strip away all the media hype surrounding Brett Favre's first encounter as a Viking with his former employers, and you have simply have two teams ready to do battle tonight. The host is favored by anywhere from 4 to 4 1/2 points. As I've noted previously, when lines are first announced on Sunday night, I handicap all the games and give them a projected line which I then compare to the actual posted price in Vegas. My line on tonight's game: Minnesota -7 to -7 1/2. Now you see why this play on the Vikings is rated so highly as the line - in my estimation - is still off by a field goal.
Much was made of Green Bay's success during the preseason, a time where its offense was unstoppable and the new 3-4 defensive scheme installed by veteran coordinator Dom Capers was providing immediate dividends. I watched their games and fell for the hype as well, forgetting that the preseason is simply four meaningless exhibition games primarily featuring second- and third-stringers. Yet in Week One, I was on the Packers as a 15 dime release in their home opener against Chicago and if not for a miracle 51-yard TD pass by Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes, I would have lost in a game in which the Bears thoroughly dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Green Bay followed its opening win against Chicago by losing at home to Cincinnati and then trouncing a woeful St. Louis club on the road a week ago. But red flags abound for the Packers, namely poor offensive line play and a defense that's been unable to stop the run or generate an adequate pass rush.
Rodgers has had precious little time in the pocket as he's already been sacked 12 times, hitting the deck a total of 10 times in the games against the Bears and Bengals. And his starting left tackle, Chad Clifton, is a game-time decision for this contest because of a sprained ankle. With or without his left tackle, Rodgers must contend with a Minnesota defense ranked fourth in the league overall with a 259.7 yard average yield. The Vikings, who were the No. 1 team in the NFL at stopping the run from the 2006-08 seasons, have also picked up eight sacks in the season's first three weeks with Jared Allen (two sacks, two forced fumbles) leading the way.
Defensively, Capers new 3-4 scheme hasn't been able to reach the likes of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger as it has accounted for only five sacks in three weeks of action. And the Packers have been vulnerable to the run; the Bengals Cedric Benson shredded them for 141 yards on 29 carries at Lambeau in week two. That same unit is now tasked with trying to stop the NFL's leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who has gained 357 yards on the season. In Green Bay's last visit to the Metrodome, Peterson ran for 192 yards.
Forget the trends and ATS angles in this one; Minnesota is simply the more talented team and that's the reason I had them pegged as a TD favorite in this contest at the outset. The discrepancy between my projected price and the actual number in Vegas is what gives weight to my belief that the Vikings win comfortably, making Favre's first shot against his former mates this season a successful one.
DeMarco 10-5-09
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