5* 2009 NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Cowboys -3
Denver is 3-0, but all of its wins have come against teams that were awful last season. The Cowboys have a lot to prove this year and I like them to show people that they are for real with a big win on the road this week. Denver likes to rush the QB relentlessly, but the Cowboys have more than enough weapons to make the Broncos pay and a running attack that is dominating its opponents no matter who's in the backfield. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less period. The Broncos are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games overall, 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. I'll back the Boys laying a small number.
4* Major Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Raiders +9.5
After a very poor performance against Denver last week, expect the Raiders to finally get their offense going against the worst defense in the league this week. Oakland won 27-16 at home as a 6.5-point dog in last year's matchup and I believe the Raiders have an excellent chance to win this one outright as well. The Texans are giving up a league-high 436.3 yards per game, nearly 100 more than their average from last season. They've been particularly vulnerable against the run, ranking last in the NFL by allowing 204.7 yards per game. And it just so happens that running the football is Oakland's strength. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Take the Raiders.
4* Major Public Opinion Game of the Week on Titans -3
The Titans finished the 2008 regular season with the best record in the AFC. They are now off to a 0-3 start. In other words, this team knows that it can't afford another loss if it hopes to get back in the postseason for a third straight season. Expect Tennessee to get in the win column by defeating a team it has owned this week. The Titans have won 4 of the last 5 games in this matchup and they are an impressive 10-5 in their last 15 games at Jacksonville, including a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS over the last 3 seasons. The Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the AFC South, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. The public is all over this one and I have to agree. Take the Titans.
Jimmy Boyd 10/4
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