[tinfw17]

Tennessee –3 +1.02 over JACKSONVILLE PINNACLE
The Titans had a chance to beat the Steelers in week one and probably should have. They had a chance to beat Houston in week 2 and probably should have. They played the Jets last week, fell behind 14-0, rallied to take a 17-14 lead but two fumbles on two punts was just too difficult to overcome and while they lost again they had a chance to win and probably should have. Now this extremely talented team is 0-3 and this is not a 0-3 team. In fact, with a couple of bounces they could be 3-0. They’ll take a step down in class here and while I’m going against my cardinal rule of laying road points, I’ll make a rare exception here. You see, the Jags don’t impress at all. They’re 1-2 after losing to the Colts in week one in a deceiving 14-12 score and they followed that up by getting smoked at home by the Cardinals before a victory last week in Houston. Of all the places to play in the NFL, Jacksonville might be the least intimidating. There is no atmosphere whatsoever, as the fans act like they’re there just to kill a few hours. The hungry Titans should be able to control everything here, including time of possession and both lines. This is the best 0-3 team in perhaps the history of the game and in no way will they allow this inferior opponent to put them in a huge 0-4 hole. Play: Tennessee –3 +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND +2.29 over Cincinnati PINNACLE
Wagering on the NFL is very much like playing the stock market in that you should always buy low and sell high and that’s precisely the situation here. The Brownies stock has hit bottom after the Ravens blew them out last week and they now sit at 0-3. The closest they’ve been in three games is 14 points and that came at home in week one against the Vikes. Lots of folks were on them in week 2 when they went into Denver as a three-point pooch and lost by 21. Nobody wants a part of these Brownies right now and that’s the best time to “step in”. By contrast, the Bengals stock is very high after they went into Green Bay and as a nine-point dog won outright. Last week they beat the Steelers and if not for a miracle play by the Broncos in week one, the Bengals would be 3-0. Cinci’s win last week at home was a huge one and now they’re in danger of a letdown, especially with the Ravens on deck next week. So, this is a classic case of buying low and selling high and looking for the right spot. Yes, the Brownies have problems, most notably a QB controversy and a head coach that columnist Joe Posnanski, in an "Inside the NFL" piece posted Tuesday described as “the worst head coach hire in 25 years". However, the time is right and while these Bengals look pretty good, its history suggests they’re ripe to get beat. If the Brownies have one good game in them, this will be it. Play: Cleveland +2.29 (Risking 2 units).

KANSAS CITY +9 over NY Giants Sports Interaction
For the third 0-3 team this week we turn our attentions to not the Kansas City Chiefs but more to playing against the New York Giants. When you talk about difficult spots and letdowns, this is about as good as it gets for the home side. Furthermore, the Giants 3-0 record is very misleading, as they beat Washington by six in week one, they were completely dominated in week 2 in Dallas and they beat a nothing team, the Bucs last week. Now the Giants will play its third consecutive road game and frankly, despite the 3-0-record they haven’t looked so good. Eli Manning was just 16-27 for 171 yards last week against Tampa. Dallas racked up 251 yards on the ground against them the previous week and again, they’ll play its third consecutive road game in a difficult setting and that’s an extremely difficult assignment for even the best of teams. The Chiefs don’t offer up much but they haven’t started the year 0-4 in 29 years and they’re usually very tough at home. Also consider that they were a nine-point dog on the road in Philly last week and now they’re a nine-point dog at home in a much more favorable spot. What we have here is an overlay and it says here the Giants are in danger of losing outright in what will be a scary close game. Play: Kansas City +9 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).

MIAMI +1.02 over Buffalo PINNACLE
It’s not by design that I’ve gone to four 0-3 teams this week, it just worked out that way and it is in line with my philosophy to buy low and sell high. The Bills favored in Miami is simply incorrect and that’s all there is to it. Remember, the Dolphins dominated the Colts at home in week 2 and did not deserve to lose that one. They played the Chargers tough in San Diego last week and that’s with Chad Pennington going down early in the game. Yes, they have a rookie QB going but he’s good and he got his feet wet last week and it could be a blessing in disguise for the Dolphins. Chad Henne went 10-19 last week for 92 yards, which isn’t great by any stretch but he gained some invaluable playing experience and if things don’t go well the Fish still have Tyler Thigpen ready to come in. The Bills were beaten up last week against New Orleans in Buffalo. Against that rather soft defense they managed just 243 yards of total offense. The Bills also surrendered 20 points to the hapless Bucs the previous week and that should be a huge concern for Bills supporters. This is a very beatable intruder and a 0-3 Bill Parcells team that deserves a better fate will absolutely be ready for this one. Buffalo favored on the road? C’mon now. Buy low my friends. Play: Miami +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

[tinfw17]

Sunday October 4, 2009 9:00am EST
Italy Serie A
AC Milan +1.32 over ATALANTA PINNACLE
Although AC Milan has been struggling terribly both in Italy and recently in the Champions League, as they lost 1-0 at home to FC Zurich, this game against Atalanta is really an easy pick especially at this price. Atalanta is tied in dead last with only 2 points and things do no get easier, as they host AC Milan, who is starving for a victory. AC Milan needs this one real bad if they are to contend for the Serie A title, as they already trail league leaders Sampdoria by 7 points. Atalanta, too, needs a win to get out of the relegation zone but they will have to wait for another game in order to do so, as they couldn’t have caught AC Milan at a worse time. It is unlikely that AC Milan loses this game, as they have a ton of pressure and the weight of a serious, angry fan base on their shoulders. A win will relieve some of that pressure, as they go forward in Italy and the Champions League. A very good price here for a world-class team going against minnows. Play: AC Milan +1.32 (Risking 2 units).

Sunday October 4, 2009 9:30am EST
German Bundesliga
VFB STUTTGART +1.67 OVER Werder Bremen PINNACLE
Stuttgart hasn’t been very good thus far in the German Bundesliga, as they have only managed 8 points through their first 7 matches played while Werder Bremen has been slightly better gathering 12 points in their first 7 contests. This match is big for both teams, especially for Stuttgart, as they host this game and know they cannot fall further in the standings or their season will be cooked, even this early in the season. VFB Stuttgart will come out more desperate than Werder Bremen in front of the home supporters and will not disappoint, all three points is a must for Stuttgart. Bremen will be happy with a draw therefore they will play a conservative match looking to counter attack when the opportunity presents itself. The home team has won five consecutive matches in this series and by large scores indeed. Stuttgart will be the hungrier squad and must collect the three points at home. The pressure is on for Stuttgart and a home win against a good team is top priority and a virtual must. Play: VFB STUTTGART +1.67 (Risking 2 units).

Sunday October 4, 2009 3:00pm EST
Spain La Liga
SEVILLA +2.76 OVER Real Madrid PINNACLE
This is certainly the game of the week in Spain. Both teams have been in absolute superb form punishing all opponents in the process. There are two major factors for this play. The first being that Cristiano Ronaldo is a question mark for this fixture, as he suffered an ankle injury mid week against Marseille in the Champions League, and the second factor is this nice juicy price that is being offered for an extremely good side in Sevilla. Make no mistake about it; Sevilla is not scared at all of the big bad Real Madrid. In fact Sevilla has beaten Real Madrid in the past both at home and on the road. Sevilla has a ton of quality and can truly beat anyone. Obviously Real Madrid is incredible, however, its defense can be questioned and times very suspect. Sevilla plays a very aggressive attacking style of football and will score some goals in this match, the key for them will be to stop Real Madrid’s attack. If Cristiano Ronaldo does not play, I believe Sevilla will do just that, stop Real’s attack and score goals, more than enough to get the victory. I firmly believe that Sevilla is capable of winning this game even if Ronaldo does play. This price is not right as Sevilla is a very dangerous team and playing this one at home surely helps. Play: SEVILLA +2.76 (Risking 2 units).