Tony Weston
SATURDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime USC
10 Dime Michigan
5 Dime Virginia Tech

USC at California
USC - No matter how their seasons are going, no matter which direction each team is headed, when USC and Cal get together in their annual Pac-10 showdown, it almost always goes the way of the Trojans.

Over the last decade USC has gone 7-3 SU against the Golden Bears. And while you may be put off by that 4-6 ATS record the Trojans have compiled against Cal in that stretch, don’t let that get the best of your judgement.

After Cal cashed in 5 of 6 meetings from 1999-2004, USC has covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

It’s also important to note that in their last 4 meetings the Trojans have been favored, on average, by about 12 1/2 points (12.3). For tonight’s matchup, USC is laying only about 4 points. And that number has gone down after opening at about 6 1/2.

In their last four meetings, USC has beaten Cal by an average of 15 points per game, including last year’s 17-3 victory. The last couple of games in Berkeley have seen USC cover as an 18 1/2 point favorite in 2005, winning 35-10, then covering as a 4-point favorite in 2007, beating the Bears 24-17.

Things won’t be any different tonight as USC pulls off another victory SU and ATS against Cal.



Michigan at Michigan State
MICHIGAN - So far this season the Michigan State Spartans have not looked good at all, save a 44-3 beat down of Division II Montana State to start the season.

But since that win, the Spartans have gone 0-3 SU and have covered in just 1 of those games, a 33-30 loss on the road at Notre Dame where Michigan State was catching 10 1/2 points.

Now, coming off a 38-30 loss as a 2-point underdog on the road at Wisconsin, the Spartans are installed as a favorite? That's right, most places have Michigan State laying about 3 1/2 points against visiting Michigan.

I'm taking those points and I'm taking the Wolverines in this one.

While some people are a little gun shy to take Michigan on the road with a freshman quarterback starting under center, the team has almost quietly turned into one of the better teams in the country.

The team has erased last year's nightmare season in head coach Rich Rodriguez's first year and have jumped to a 4-0 SU start, having cashed in 3 of those games.

Consider, too, historically in this series the Wolverines have had Michigan State's number in this in-state rivalry.

Since 2002, the Wolverines are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS against the Spartans, with one of those SU and ATS losses coming last year in that aforementioned nightmare season for Michigan.

Consider, too, in this series the road team has covered in 5 of the last 6 meetings and the Spartans are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games and have covered in just 11 of their last 34 games when installed as a home favorite.

The Wolverines, on the other hand, have covered in 7 straight games when installed as a road underdog of between 3 1/2 and 10 points and are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games when catching any points on the road.

Michigan will flirt with the outright victory and be in a position to pull it off. I'm not suggesting taking the Money Line on the Wolverines, but do take the points and take Michigan on the road in this one.



Virginia Tech at Duke
VIRGINIA TECH - When Virginia Tech and Duke get together, it’s usually not very pretty. Since these two started playing regularly in 2004, this has been a one-sided affair with the Hokies dominating the Blue Devils.

Since 2004, Virginia Tech has gone a perfect 5-0 SU against Duke, having covered in 3 of their last 4 meetings. In that stretch the Hokies have outscored the Blue Devils, on average, by 29 points per game.

Last year was the closest Duke has kept this annual meeting, losing 14-3 as a 14 1/2 point underdog. But consider that in this season the road team is 4-1 ATS and Duke has covered in just 13 of its last 45 home games.

Also, the Blue Devils have covered in just 11 of their last 38 games when installed as a home underdog and are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games in conference action.

Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has covered in 11 of its last 14 games when installed as a favorite on the road and is 28-11 ATS its last 39 games in conference. Also, don’t be afraid by the number the Hokies are laying as the team has covered in 5 straight games in which it has laid 10 1/2 points or more.

It’ll happen again as Virginia Tech cruises to another victory over the Dukies.