Stephen Nover 10/03
Stephen Nover
Stephen Nover Saturday's Winners 60-Dime Oklahoma - First off, I'm fine with Landry Jones at quarterback for Oklahoma if Sam Bradford can't go. The Sooners are 2-0 with Jones having blown out Idaho State 64-0 and more impressively Tulsa 45-0.
Jones, who was more highly recruited than Bradford, is 43-for-69 passing for 622 yards and nine touchdowns with three interceptions in the two games since Bradford went down.
The Sooners rank eighth nationally in scoring averaging 40.7 points and their defense has been outstanding. Tulsa, with its high-powered offense, could pick up just 269 points, its lowest output since a 2006 bowl loss.
Miami is better than I expected. But the Hurricanes are still a long ways from staying within a touchdown against this caliber of opponent. That was proven last week when Virginia Tech shut them down, 31-7. Just two years ago, Oklahoma defeated Miami by 38 points.
Miami exploited mistakes by Florida State and Georgia Tech to post wins agains its fellow ACC foes. I'm not real impressed with the ACC, though. Maybe Randy Shannon finally has the Hurricanes headed upward. Jacory Harris is a promising quarterback with lots of talent. But the Hurricanes aren't ready yet to stay with a powerful Sooners squad that is in top form.
20-Dime Nevada - Yes, Nevada is a disappointing 0-3. But let's not lose sight that the Wolf Pack have played teams that are a combined 10-2, including Notre Dame and Missouri, which is proving to be better than most anticipated.
Nevada treats this in-state rivalry matchup much more serious than UNLV. I know this first-hand from having covered the UNLVL football team for the Las Vegas Review-Journal newspaper and from knowing Nevada coach Chris Ault and having spent time in Reno.
The Wolf Pack are a very dangerous 0-3 team. They've been hurt by a minus 9 turnover differential. That's not going to continue because Chris Kaepernick is too good of a quarterback. The Wolf Pack have beaten and covered against UNLV the past four years. Last year, Nevada rolled up 620 yards of offense in a 49-27 victory.
Nevada has a huge coaching edge. Ault is at his best as a home favorite covering 12 of the past 13 times as home chalk of 16 points or less.
UNLV coach Mike Sanford only has a job because he signed a long-term deal and the Rebels don't want to pay him off before his contract is finished. Under Sanford the Rebels are 2-22 on the road, 6-17-1 against the spread.
The Rebels just don't travel well under Sanford, especially in conference games and against this particularly non-division foe. The Rebels have failed to cover the past three times they've traveled to Reno.
Morale is down at UNLV following an upset loss to Wyoming. Rebel quarterback Omar Clayton also is dealing with a sore right shoulder.
15-Dime Washington - Washington had its letdown last week against Stanford after scoring a major upset against USC. Now Notre Dame faces a tough situational spot.
The Irish have played three straight games that went down to the final minute. That's not only physically tough, but mentally draining, too. The Irish are off next week but their following game is against USC, a team they've lost to seven straight times.
The Irish don't have the coaching and defense to cover this big of a number. They shouldn't be a double-digit favorite, especially after losing star wide receiver Michael Floyd. Notre Dame averaged 4.8 yards per play and scored just 24 points versus a mediocre Purdue defense last week without Floyd. Notre Dame's offense clearly isn't as good without Floyd. In addition, quarterback Jimmy Clausen and running back Armondo Allen are both banged-up. Clausen is dealing with turf toe, a painful injury.
This is a much bigger game for Washington which is striving for credibility under new coach Steve Sarkisian. He's doing a fine job of turning things around for the Huskies. Sarkisian has transformed highly-talented Jake Locker into being a pro-style quarterback. This suits Locker's skills more than being a read-option type of quarterback he was under Tyrone Willingham.
Locker gives the Huskies a chance to beat just about any team. Notre Dame usually is overrated and that's the case again this season. The Irish surrendered 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 6.1 yards per play to Michigan and 7.1 yards per play to Michigan State. Locker and Washington can put up similar numbers.
Weis is another Notre Dame negative. The Irish are 8-14 against the spread as a home favorite under him with six outright losses.
10-Dime Florida State - Granted, Florida State could be the most mind-boggling team in college football. The 2-2 Seminoles blow a game to Miami and nearly lose to unheralded Jacksonville State, score a blowout win at BYU and then fall as a two-touchdown favorite to South Florida.
So what to make of Florida State this week? I say you'll get the very good Seminoles.
The Seminoles are steaming mad after fumbling four times versus South Florida while also not coming away with any points during three trips inside the 10-yard line. There is historical precedence for this feel. The Seminoles are 15-6 against the spread under Bobby Bowden in those situations when they are off a straight-up loss as a favorite meeting an opponent that won their last game.
The Eagles got past Wake Forest in overtime last week despite giving up nearly 500 yards. Talent-wise the Eagles are stepping up in class. They didn't fare too well when they met Clemson two weeks ago, losing 25-7 gaining just 54 yards.
Boston College's defensive front seven is young. Florida State has major edges in caliber of athletes and team speed. The question is motivation and concentration. The Seminoles should possess those key traits this week.
The Eagles have failed to cover the past four times they've hosted Florida State
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