[tinfw17]

BRYAN LEONARD'S SATURDAY NCAA SHOCKER

143/144 Washington at Notre Dame

We played against both these teams last week and swept the board with easy covers. Washington was off their huge upset of USC and Notre Dame as always was overvalued. Well this week we will back the Huskies as the Irish continue to remain overrated.

Washington has faced much tougher defenses than this Notre Dame stop unit and had solid success. They produced 23 points and 5.8 yards per play against LSU. They then pulled off the shocker against USC who owns one of the top stop units in the nation. QB Jake Locker should have a field day moving the chains, and the Huskies look to have a key contributor WR Devin Aguilar back on the field this week. Defensively Washington will give up some points and yardage but they will be facing a depleted Irish scoring unit.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armondo Allen will both play but they won't be 100%. Last week the offense struggled without the injured Michael Floyd and the team averaged just 4.8 yards per play against a questionable Purdue defense. Washington's stop unit compares with that of the Boilermakers so we can't see Claussen and company putting up much more than the 24 points they scored last week. Defensively the Irish have stopped nobody with the possible exception of Nevada who has looked terrible thus far. They allowed 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 7.1 ypp to Michigan State and 6.1 ypp to Michigan. Even in shutting out the Wolf Pack they permitted 5.5 yards per play.

Simply put the Irish are not nearly as good as the media would have you believe. They are off three straight last second outcomes with two of those games falling in their favor. In the Charlie Weis regime Notre Dame is 8-14 ATS as a home favorite with six outright losses. Look for a high scoring affair as Washington matches the Irish all day long in another late game finish.
PLAY WASHINGTON