Doc sports 10/03 NCAAF
8 Unit Play. #88 Take Minnesota -2 ½ over Wisconsin (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Big Ten Game of the Year. Now we will find out who is for real and who is just an imposter. The Gophers enter this game at 3-1, with their only loss coming against California. This team has two road victories on the season, at Syracuse and at Northwestern. As for the Badgers, they are untested, supporting a 4-0 record; however, this team has yet to be challenged on the road. You did read that right, it is October and Wisconsin has yet to play a road game this season.
The Badgers have won five straight games in this series. In 2008 the Gophers led the 21-7 at halftime, before falling, 35-32. In that game, All-Conference WR Eric Decker was injured and did not play. The 2009 squad is the best group Coach Tim Brewster has had since he took over and the offense is loaded with QB Adam Weber and a great receiving core. The offensive line is much better then the 2008 edition and they now have the ability to beat you via the ground as well as though the air.
As for the Badgers, the home cooking will not be found here. The quarterback position is in good hands with Scott Tolzien; however, the running game is not up to Wisconsin’s usually standard. The defense has had problems against Fresno State and Michigan State, as both clubs had over 400 yards of total offense. I expect this team to struggle against a strong offense, especially one like Minnesota that can beat you two ways.
Minnesota had a big win last week on the road against Northwestern and I look for a carryover here, since this team is loaded with upperclassman. Coach Brewster will remind his players that none of them have ever beaten Wisconsin. This is the first Big Ten game at TCF Bank Stadium and expect this team to be sky high. They have the edge in talent, home field, and coaching and this small line is just too good to pass up. The Ax heads North, as the Badgers streak finally come to an end! Minnesota 31, Wisconsin 20.
5 Unit Play. #60 Take Georgia -3 over LSU (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Top College Selection. As one looks at this game, it is hard to figure why Georgia is favored since they are ranked #18 and LSU is ranked #4. Throw in the fact that the Tigers are undefeated and it makes this even more questionable. The fact is that Georgia has played a much tougher schedule and not question that they are the better club. The Dawg’s rush defense has been outstanding and that does not bode well for LSU, since they rushed for just 30 yards against Mississippi State. They had only 164 yards the previous week against UL-Lafayette.
Granted LSU will be looking for revenge, but that does not mean much if you do not have the horses to execute the mission. Bulldogs will score points and I just do not see LSU keeping pace. Playing inside the hedges gives Georgia the call and this one will not be as close as you might think. Georgia 38, LSU 14.
5 Unit Play. #26 Take Illinois +7 over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. I took the Illini last week only to get burned 30-0 as a 14 point underdog against Ohio State. This Illinois team was expected to be good with several skill players returning. With losses to Missouri and Ohio State certainly bring doubt for Coach Turner and company. Now this team finds their backs against the wall! A bad outing on Saturday may see them throw in the towel for the 2009 season. The talent is still there, now it is time for Coach Zook to prove he can be a good coach and justify his hiring after little success at Florida.
QB Williams has yet to have a good game in 2009 and the defense has struggled defending the pass. Penn State lost to Iowa last week and that was no shock to this writer. The Lions offense is just not putting up points and the defense is having problems, especially at the linebacker position hampered by injuries. This team is just not as strong as past Paterno teams and can only score in the forties against weak opponents such as Akron or Temple. My gut feeling is that the Illini will finally come to play and Juice Williams will have a breakout game. Receiving around a touchdown is a bonus as the Lions will fall to 0-2 in the Big Ten. The homer gets the call in upset fashion! Illinois 27, Penn State 20.
4 Unit Play. #27 Take Arkansas State +22 over Iowa (12:05 pm ESPN 2) I really liked the Hawks last week against Penn State and feel they have the best team in the Big Ten; however, their road schedule is brutal. As good as Iowa is, if you ever see a flat spot, it will be here coming off a big win in Happy Valley and having Michigan on deck.
As for Arkansas State, they are certainly not in the same class as Iowa, but do not underestimate this club. They return 15 starters from 2008 and are loaded with seniors. The Red Wolves are used to playing powers on the road, playing Nebraska this year, Texas A & M & Alabama in 2008, and Texas & Tennessee in 2007. Look for the Hawkeyes to go through the motions and the points look very attractive. Iowa 27, Arkansas State 14.
4 Unit Play. #33 Take Clemson -12 ½ over Maryland (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) I am never wild about laying points on the road; however, this is a case of two clubs moving in different directions. The Tigers have lost two games thus far; however; both losses came against good teams, TCU and Georgia Tech. The Tigers were expecting a good season and cannot afford another early season loss, especially against a very untalented Maryland club. The Terrapins have only beaten James Madison, 38-35, and I question if they will win another game this season.
Both clubs have played Middle Tennessee State this season. Maryland lost to them, 32-31 and Clemson beat them, 37-14. The Tigers come in with a balanced attack and a solid defense. They lost to Maryland in 2008, 20-17, revenge will be sweet. The talent gap between the two clubs in deep and this one will be all Tigers. Clemson 34, Maryland 10.
4 Unit Play. #38 Take Michigan State -3 over Michigan (Saturday 12 pm Big 10 Network) Talk about having one’s back against one’s wall! Michigan State enters this annual battle on a three game losing streak and this is their season here. Field position really killed MSU in last week’s battle with Wisconsin. No question that this team has the talent, but I have been waiting for them to play to their ability.
This will be the Wolverines first road game of the season. I respect how Coach Rodriguez has turned around this club, but I still feel he is a couple years away from becoming a conference power. A loss by Michigan State here will probably mean I will avoid using them as a selection for the rest of the season. But this line is low and it is just too good to pass up, as the Spartans finally play to their potential. Michigan State 28, Michigan 20.
4 Unit Play. #86 Take California +4 ½ over USC (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Always hard to come back with a team after using them the previous week when they got their butts kicked. The Bears played well in the first quarter but then hibernated and simply gave up after that. This team might have been looking ahead and simply has too much talent not to come back strong here, especially playing in Berkley. The Trojans have won five straight in this series, but have had a major edge in talent in those games. That is not the case in 2009, as Cal returned 15 starters from 2008 and none of these players have experienced the feeling of beating USC.
Although the Trojans have the best defense of the two teams, I am not convinced QB Matt Barkley and company will be able to score points at will. The loser of this game will see there hopes for a big bowl game fade and thus I expect it to be played close to the best, in a low scoring battle. The homer pulls out all the stops here and it is just too many points for the visitor to be laying in what will be a tight match. California 24, USC 21.
strong opinion plays:
Florida State by 14 over Boston College (line is 4)
Texas Tech by 42 over New Mexico (line is 35.5)
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Originally Posted by Joe Sharp
