[Preston09]

Game: South Florida at Syracuse (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on South Florida -6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Syracuse has been a surprise this season, winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2006. While every win counts equally in the standings, you can hardly get excited about a win over Northwestern and a come-from-behind win at home over a non-BCS team in Maine. The Bulls got a bad break when they lost QB Matt Grothe for the year. No one gave them a chance going to Florida State with an untested QB, especially with the Seminoles coming off a game in which they hung 54 on BCS contender BYU. But South Florida manhandled the Seminoles, allowing them just seven points. All BJ Daniels did at QB for the Bulls was connect on two first-half TD passes. He was also the Bulls leading rusher with 126 yards. So, the Bulls may actually have an upgrade at QB here and are off to a 4-0 start. The last time these teams met it was 45-13 South Florida a year ago. Two years ago in Syracuse, the Bulls ran away with a 41-10 rout. Both of those games featured the Bulls favored by three TDs and here a TD advantage gets us the cover. I don't think Syracuse has bridged the gap that much. I'm going with South Florida here.

Game: Florida State at Boston College (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston College +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Will the real Florida State Seminoles please stand up? This is a very mysterious team. The Noles opened vs. Miami, had the Hurricanes out-stated for three quarters getting up by nine, then became a different team and lost. They played home vs. Jacksonville State as a huge favorite and needed a miracle finish just to win. They then go out to BYU, who many thought could crack the BCS Bowl bids, play big-time and hang 54 on the Cougars on the road. Then they come home against a South Florida team starting a backup QB in his first game and lose at home by 10 points. Whatever is going on something just isn't right. And Boston College isn't the kind of team that you can play an incomplete game with on the road and win. The Eagles never seem to have the talked-about team but all they do is win football games, get Bowl bids and win those. The Eagles are 26-5 at home in their last 31, so they won't be an easy out here - far from it. The Noles have not been a team to be bullish on as a favorite, standing in at just 7-16-1 ATS when posted as a chalk from 3.5-10 points. The Eagles have relished in this very same role as they are 11-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5-10. The Eagle has landed and it takes down the Noles. I'm on Boston College in this one.

Game: Wisconsin at Minnesota (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Wisconsin +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
These two teams have certainly played some exciting high-scoring games as the last nine have soared over the total. Wisconsin has been a steady program under Coach Brent Bielema as they have not dropped a bit under his regime at 32-11 in his 43 games. Minnesota coach Tim Brewster has gotten the Gophers program back on its feet with six more wins last year compared to the 2007-08 season. Wisconsin has always been a good, strong defensive team that runs the ball well, but finally they appear to have a competent QB in Scott Tolzien that can mix things up. Tolzien has thrown for eight TD passes already with just two picks, and is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. The Golden Gophers struggled against Syracuse before winning in OT, had a battle with Air Force, and lost to California. QB Adam Weber has not been great with five TDs and five INTs, averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt. This will be just the fourth time the Gophers have laid points to Wisconsin, and they have never covered. Additionally they are just 4-14 SU and ATS against Wisconsin in their last 18 overall. This will be a close game, and the Badgers usually find a way to get it done.

Game: Toledo + Usc at Parlay (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Parlay +125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5)
I really like both of these teams to win their games outright. On the moneyline Toledo is -190 and USC is -200. When these two are put together in a two-team moneyline parlay the payout is +125. The Rockets are 47-8 straight-up over the past 15 years when scoring 28+ points in a game and I like them to score a lot in their game vs. Ball State, a team that has allowed over 30 per game this season. As for USC, they have plenty of motivation in their game against Cal. The sting of the loss to Washington two weeks ago is still fresh in their minds. They simply must win-out to hold on to any hopes of a BCS Championship. In addition, they will be playing hard for teammate Stafon Johnson who was seriously injured this week in the weight room. The Golden Bears were embarrassed last week in a 42-3 loss to Oregon and won't be right here. Jahvid Best is great, but he was shut down last year in this matchup and the USC defense has held opponents this year to just 60 yards rushing per game on average. USC doesn't lose the games vs. good competition - they lose the ones to the cupcakes. Under Pete Carroll the Trojans are 36-5 straight-up vs. teams at .600 or better. I like both Toledo and USC to notch wins and I think there is very good value on the +125 payout on a parlay of the two on the moneyline.

Game: Alabama at Kentucky (Saturday 10/03 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kentucky +16 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It has been a long time since Alabama has lost a regular season football game, and I don't think it will come at Kentucky. But notching a blowout is another story. The Tide boasts one of the top defenses in the country, but will be taking to the road for the first time with a raw QB in Greg McElroy and we have already seen many top 10 teams treated to a loss already this season. Kentucky fell to Florida last week at home, so they aren't likely to cause 'Bama to get up for this game. And the Tide has a huge one on deck with Ole Miss on the road. So it's plausible for the Tide to think they can get away without expending much energy here. Remember a year ago, the Wildcats went into Alabama and lost by just three points as a dog of the same amount as posted at home here for this one. Once more Kentucky is the “Mildcats” no more as they have grabbed the money in 21 of their last 31 as a dog of 10.5 or more. When you mark them as a home dog of 10.5 or more it becomes very profitable as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in that situation. It looked easy last year for Alabama and it wasn't. Now the Tide must try to topple the same number on the road with a QB making his first appearance out of the comforts of home. I like the Wildcats here.

Game: Temple at Eastern Michigan (Saturday 10/03 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Eastern Michigan +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
There appears to be one given each year in the MAC. That given is that Temple won't win the conference championship, and neither will Eastern Michigan. It is hard to imagine the Owls in this spot as nearly a TD favorite on the road. The fact is that this Owls team is 6-32 ATS off a straight-up win - hardly the kind of team you want your money on. They have beaten Eastern Michigan two straight, but have failed to cover in either one and now are a road favorite. The last 10 times the Owls have taken on this role, they have failed to get the money in seven of them. The Eagles have chased an ATS loss with an ATS win in four of their last five and the Eagles are also flying high in October at 13-5 ATS. So once they get their wings in September, they have become a bad team that delivers the cash. Temple beat up on Buffalo last game 37-13. This team hasn't had many big wins over the past fifteen years, notching just 12 wins by a margin of 17+ points. In the next game after the big wins, they have gone just 2-10 ATS. It looks ugly from both sides, but getting points has been pretty for Eastern Michigan, while the Owls don't seem to take to layin’ them. Eastern Michigan gets the call here.


Game: Western Michigan at Northern Illinois (Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Northern Illinois -6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Broncos are a one-dimensional team that relies on the pass to move the football, but many times when the field gets short they struggle to find the endzone without a running game. Despite their 271 yards passing per game, the Broncos have averaged just 24 points per game. They ran for 159 yards against a non-BCS team and, even with that, they average under 100 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos’ defense has been lacking stopping the run or pass, allowing almost 400 yards per game. The Huskies should take advantage of the Broncos inability to stop the run. Western Michigan is yielding 157 yards per game on the ground, while the Huskies are churning out 188 per game of their own with Me'co Brown averaging six yards a pop. The Huskies have allowed seven rushing TDs this season, but that isn't what Western Michigan does well. The Broncos have yet to find the win column on the road at 0-2 and have run their road ineptness to 0-5 ATS in their last five. The Huskies have come up big at 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a 3.5-10 point favorite. The Broncos are also just 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Huskies, and are 0-6 ATS on the road against Northern Illinois. I'm going with Northern Illinois to continue their home dominance in this one.

Game: Air Force at Navy (Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Navy -2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
In this battle for the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, the Naval Academy has won six years in a row. While the Air Force holds a commanding 25-16 all-time edge in the series, Navy has been the better team in recent years taking out the Falcons six straight years. Air Force had a lot of problems on the road losing to Minnesota and then last week, the offense could not find the end-zone against a rather weak San Diego State team. Air Force has thrived on defense, where they lead the country averaging +3.25 turnovers per game. It will be difficult for Air Force to score on the Navy defense that is better than their No. 71 passing yards allowed ranking, mainly due to stepping up in class vs. Pittsburgh and Ohio State. Air Force usually has a decent team and isn’t listed as a dog often, but have struggled to win when they are losing their last four ATS. Navy has pounded the MWC as they have a 12-1 ATS record in their last 13 against them and, overall as a favorite of three points or less, Navy has delivered the cash to a 6-1 ATS mark. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS against Navy in the last six meetings and I don't see this as the year they break through. Navy gets the call in this one.


Game: Washington at Notre Dame (Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Notre Dame -12.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Huskies shocked the NCAAF world with a win over the USC Trojans two weeks ago, delivering a blow to the Trojans' BCS Championship hopes. Washington was one of our upset alerts that came through. But as I said last week when fading the same Huskies team, that was more about a USC letdown than the strength of Washington. The Huskies played premier in that game for sure, but they aren't really a quality team. I am again fading them this week. The Huskies caught the Trojans napping, which USC seems to do once a year. If you remember, they lost to Oregon State last year as a 24-point favorite and two years ago they lost to Stanford as a 39-point favorite. The Huskies, after their big win, returned to reality as they took to the road for the first time and lost to Stanford by 20. This is still a team that is 2-14 in their last 16 games and 1-10 in their last 11 on the road. The Huskies have dropped their last five on the road by 20, 41, 56, 34 and 34 points for an average margin of 37 points per game to teams with a winning record. The Irish come in one late TD drive at Michigan from being 4-0. They are a bit banged up, but are still head and shoulders better than this Huskies team and won't get caught napping here. The Huskies are just 1-9 ATS after scoring 20 or less and 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road. They have not covered against the Irish in five straight meetings. The Irish get a big win here.


Game: Ohio State at Indiana (Saturday 10/03 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ohio State -17.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It has been a long time since the Indiana Hoosiers have beaten Ohio State. You have to go back to 1988 (over 20 years ago) to find the Hoosiers’ last win. Over the years Ohio State has been a powerful team just about every year and Indiana would have glimpses of success, then fall back. What is amazing is the absolute dominance Ohio State has had on this Indiana team. The Hoosiers have not scored more than 17 points against the Buckeyes since 1991! The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have scored 30+ in seven of the last eight meetings. The Hoosiers, over that same period, have been held to an average of eight points per game. The Buckeyes have also won 15 straight on the road in the Big-10. This is one of the best defensive Buckeyes teams in recent years, coming to Bloomington off of two consecutive shutouts for the first time since '96. The Buckeyes aren't just winning Big-10 games they are also 23-8 ATS in their last 31 against conference foes, including 17-5 ATS on the road in conference play. The Hoosiers are cash-poor as a dog of 10+ coming in with just a 4-10 ATS mark. The Buckeyes have covered the last four against the Hoosiers. Look for Ohio State to make it five straight.

Game: S M U at T C U (Saturday 10/03 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on T C U -28 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This one should become very ugly. SMU has put up some offense with their run-and-shoot, but against some real weak defensive teams. And even against that weak competition, QB Bo Levi Mitchell has tossed eight INTs. They are going to run into the best defense they have seen in a while with TCU. I expect this offense to make a lot of errors and would not be surprised to see a couple of Horned Frog defensive scores as they will be in the Mustangs’ backfield all game long. TCU boasts a high-octane offense behind QB Andy Dalton and RB Joe Turner. WR Jimmy Young doesn't catch many, but has a way to get behind a defense and is turning in over 21 yards per catch. Last year the Frogs won by 41 and took a Mitchell serve back the other way for a score. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again and again. Texas Christian in a blowout.

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