PICK: Washington Nationals
Your pick will be graded at: -126 5Dimes
EXPERT: Ben Burns
REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Its been a depressing year for the Nationals, as they've got more than 100 (103) losses and have the worst record in baseball. However, they've got a chance to close out their final homestand of the season on a high. In fact, they're in position to earn a rare sweep. With Lannan on the mound, I believe that they they've got an excellent chance to get it done.
While he's had some trouble on the road, Lannan has been a bright spot at home all season. In 16 starts here, he's gone 5-3 with a superb 2.62 ERA, averaging 6 2/3 innings per outing. That's pretty impressive, when considering Washington's overall record. Lannan is off back to back losses - however, he pitched very well in both games and he's got an outstanding 1.89 ERA his last three starts.
Redding has had some success against the Nationals and he beat Lannan two starts ago. However, that was at New York and as already mentioned Lannan has been much better at home.
For the season, Redding has a 5.20 ERA overall and a 5.07 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road. The Mets are 6-10 in his starts. It should also be noted that Redding has an awful 7.57 ERA when pitching during the afternoon this season.
With this being their final home game of the year, the Nationals should have a little more to play for than do the Mets. The Nats should also be motivated to provide Lannan with some support, in return for all the solid work he's given them. I expect Lannan to get the better of Redding in this rematch and for the Nats to send the fans home happy. *7 Annihilator
DETROIT +1.5 RUNS (RUN-LINE) Game: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Game Time: 9/30/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Tigers Reason: I'm playing DETROIT ON THE RUNLINE (+1.5 Runs). With the Twins being favored for the game, we're getting a very reasonable price on the Tigers at +1.5 runs. While I expect the Tigers to win, I also believe that this game will likely be close and that having an extra run to work with could prove valuable. Note that both of yesterday's games were decided by a single run, a sign of how close and important this series is. Including yesterday's results, the Tigers are 49-27 at home. The Twins are 37-42 on the road. As their overall records are close, clearly both teams prefer their "home cooking." Note that the Tigers are 6-4 (vs. the moneyline) as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Bonine gets the call for the Tigers and he's been solid as a starter. In three starts, he's got a 3.06 ERA and 1.245 WHIP. He took a loss last time out. However, that was on the road (Tigers are 2-0 in his home starts) and he only allowed two unearned runs and two hits through 6 2/3 innings. Note that all three of his starts have been decided by two runs or less, two of them by a single run. Additionally, note that he'll have the advantage of starting against the Twins for the first time this season. Pavano goes for the Twins and he's admittedly got some great numbers against Detroit. However, this will be the fourth time that the Tigers have faced him since the beginning of August and they just saw him on 9/19, only two starts ago. That should give the hitters an advantage. Actually, Pavano was fortunate to give up only two runs vs. Detroit in that game as he also gave up 11 hits. He was also quite hittable in his most recent start as the lowly Royals got eight hits (two of them HR's) and scored four runs off him in six innings. Overall, he's got a 4.86 ERA incl. a 4.84 ERA on the road. As Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said, "This is playoff baseball - we just got started a little early this year..." With this being "playoff baseball," I expect another close and hard-fought affair and considering the Tigers overall home record, I feel that getting them at +1.5 runs for this price provides us with excellent value. *10 Top Run Line
Ben Burns 9/30
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Game: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Game Time: 9/30/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Tigers Reason: I'm playing DETROIT ON THE RUNLINE (+1.5 Runs). With the Twins being favored for the game, we're getting a very reasonable price on the Tigers at +1.5 runs. While I expect the Tigers to win, I also believe that this game will likely be close and that having an extra run to work with could prove valuable. Note that both of yesterday's games were decided by a single run, a sign of how close and important this series is. Including yesterday's results, the Tigers are 49-27 at home. The Twins are 37-42 on the road. As their overall records are close, clearly both teams prefer their "home cooking." Note that the Tigers are 6-4 (vs. the moneyline) as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Bonine gets the call for the Tigers and he's been solid as a starter. In three starts, he's got a 3.06 ERA and 1.245 WHIP. He took a loss last time out. However, that was on the road (Tigers are 2-0 in his home starts) and he only allowed two unearned runs and two hits through 6 2/3 innings. Note that all three of his starts have been decided by two runs or less, two of them by a single run. Additionally, note that he'll have the advantage of starting against the Twins for the first time this season. Pavano goes for the Twins and he's admittedly got some great numbers against Detroit. However, this will be the fourth time that the Tigers have faced him since the beginning of August and they just saw him on 9/19, only two starts ago. That should give the hitters an advantage. Actually, Pavano was fortunate to give up only two runs vs. Detroit in that game as he also gave up 11 hits. He was also quite hittable in his most recent start as the lowly Royals got eight hits (two of them HR's) and scored four runs off him in six innings. Overall, he's got a 4.86 ERA incl. a 4.84 ERA on the road. As Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said, "This is playoff baseball - we just got started a little early this year..." With this being "playoff baseball," I expect another close and hard-fought affair and considering the Tigers overall home record, I feel that getting them at +1.5 runs for this price provides us with excellent value. *10 Top Run Line
