Los Angeles Dodgers (Billingsley)-155 over SAN DIEGO PADRES (Ramos)

3* #963 L.A. DODGERS over SAN DIEGO

We believe we saw a ?buy signal? from Chad Billingsley in his last outing. So on a night in which the markets are significantly down-grading him we are in play in a favorable price range, especially as the Dodger team behind him takes that cold bucket of water that was dumped on them at Pittsburgh yesterday and regains their focus to not only clinch the N.L. West tonight, but also to move a step closer to the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Here is why the markets do not value Billingsley ? a 9-4/3.38 at the All Star break has fallen to a 3-6/5.40 since then. The Dodgers were so concerned that they took him out of the rotation for a turn, and let him try to work the kinks out in the bullpen, while also hoping that some time off would refresh his arm. It did, but apparently not many have noticed. While he will go into the books as having allowed three runs in six innings in his return to the rotation at Washington last week, which can elicit yawns, take a look at his stuff that night ? he needed only 87 pitches to work those six frames, his best PPI in over a month, with 52 of them finding the strike zone. He allowed only one hit while striking out nine, and seven of the nine contact outs came on the ground. But that three-run homer by Ryan Zimmerman overshadows all of that, and there is not all that wrong with giving up a dinger to a guy that has hit 32 of them, and has driven in 102 runs. Now we will look for the form of Billingsley to get even better, which means trouble for a Padre lineup that is nothing special, especially with all key Dodger bullpen arms rested and ready. Cesar Ramos does not bring much to the table for the Padres. He pitched at three different levels before getting called up for this audition, and we do not see the pop to survive as a Major League starter ? in working to a 5-6/3.99 at AAA he only recorded 45 strikeouts, while allowing 84 hits. Now he gets his first start after three relief appearances, all of them less than 40 pitches, and that can mean more pressure than a non-prospect is able to deal with. And with the San Diego team momentum dissipating at Arizona over the weekend, there is not much resistance vs. an opponent that brings the better starting pitcher, better bullpen and arguably the better player at seven of the eight positions on the field.