US Football (NFL)ARIZONA Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 9/27/2009 8:20:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Colts come in at 2-0 while the Cardinals are 1-1. However, I've been more impressed with the defending NFC Champs than I have with the Colts. Neither team looked good in its opener. The Colts barely squeaked by Jacksonville at home in Week 1, winning 14-12. The Cards lost a close one vs. San Francisco, losing 20-16. However, the Cards improved a lot more from Week 1 to Week 2 as they bounced back with a convincing double-digit win at Jacksonville. The Colts, on the other hand, barely defeated Miami. While Manning pulled out the victory, taking a look at the stats from that game and we find that the Dolphins had a 403-356 edge in total yards and a significant 27-14 advantage in first downs. They also dominated time of possession. In fact, Miami controlled the ball for more than 45 minutes, holding a whopping 45.07 to 14:53 edge in time of possession. Note that game came on Monday night too, meaning the Colts are playing on a short week. Additionally, note that S Bob Sanders (knee) and WR Anthony Gonzalez (knee) have been ruled out, while several players are questionable. The Cards come in with something to prove. Despite making it all the way to the Super Bowl, they still don't feel that they're getting any respect. Larry Fitzgerald summed up the team's attitude about this game, saying: "This is a great opportunity for us to go out and showcase what we're all about, about the Arizona Cardinals, about THIS year, about THIS team." Fitzgerald was one of Arizona nine players who caught passes last week as the Cards got an awesome performance by Warner. Indeed, the veteran QB was 24 of 26 for 243 yards and two touchdowns which was the highest completion percentage in NFL history, with at least 20 passes thrown. Fitzgerald had this to say of Warner: "Kurt's found the fountain of youth somewhere. I don't know where it is, but we're blessed to have his services. He played error-free football to put our offense in a great position. When he's back there in that kind of rhythm, it's hard to deal with him." Speaking of Warner, you might be surprised to learn that Warner and Manning have only faced each other once before, some eight years ago when Warner was with the Rams. Warner threw for 359 yards (Manning had 195) leading his team to a 42-17 victory. The Cards are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were home favorites of three points or less and they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. Meanwhile, the Colts are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 45.5 and 49 points. I expect Warner's team to get the better of Manning's team once again, covering the small number along the way. *10 NFL GOM TAMPA BAY Game: New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 9/27/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm taking the points with TAMPA BAY. This game has a similar set up to New York's third game last season. In that game, the 2-0 Giants came in off a road win and were facing an 0-2 Cincinnati team, which had lost at home the previous week. Most went with the heavily favored Giants, who were still fresh off their Super Bowl win. I backed the Bengals though and they rewarded me by taking the champs all the way to overtime. Most will favor the Giants here again and Coughlin and co. are saying all the right things about "avoiding a letdown." However, I feel this will be a tough spot. The Giants are off a huge divisional win and are now playing the middle of three straight on the road. They're also dealing with a few key injuries. WR Domenik Hixon is out, as are starting left defensive end Justin Tuck and starting safety Kenny Phillips. Note that Phillips had two interceptions against Dallas. Additionally, the Giants will be without defensive tackle Chris Canty and cornerback Aaron Ross. The Bucs, 14-9 ATS last 23 times they were home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range, have two road games on deck and know they can't afford to fall to 0-3. Like the Bengals did in Week 3 last year, I expect them to give the Giants all they can handle. 9* NFC GOW UNDER sf /minnesota Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Time: 9/27/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on SF and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. The 49'ers are getting it done with defense. They've held their first two opponents (Seattle and Arizona) to only 16 and 10 points. Not surprisingly, both their games have fallen below the total. While we think of Favre as being a "gunslinger," the Vikings are still a running team that plays defense. Like their guests, the Vikings are also coming off a strong defensive performance and a game which stayed below the total. They held the Lions to just 13 points. Looking at the last meeting (2007) between these teams and we find that they combined for only 34 points. With a heavy dose of the run from both teams, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair with the UNDER improving to 5-1-1 the last seven times that the 49ers were underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. *7 Blue Chip UNDER arizona / indy Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 9/27/2009 8:20:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Indianapolis and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. With a pair of future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks squaring off against each other, most are expecting this one to result in a shootout. As a result, we've got a very high over/under line to work with, the second highest on the Sunday board. I feel that its too high and that the value lies with the UNDER. The Cardinals have seen their first two games average 42 points with their lone home game finishing with only 36. Yes, the Colts and Dolphins combined for 50 points on Monday. However, that game was 10-10 in the fourth, so easily could have been lower-scoring. Additionally, the Colts saw their first game produce only 26 combined points. The Colts defense was on the field an awfully long time on Monday. As a result, I expect that they'll do their best to try and establish the running game this week, in an effort to keep their offense on the field a bit longer. Note that the Colts' offense is still without receiver Gonzalez. Likewise, the Cards saw the success that Miami had (besides the outcome) by controlling the clock and I look for them to run the ball a little more frequently than most might be expecting. The Colts have seen the UNDER go 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when coming off a Monday Night game. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go 6-2 when they've been listed as underdogs. Seven of those eight games finished with 47 points or less. I expect this one to also stay below that mark. 9* Non-Conf. TOW UNDER san diego /miami Game: Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers Game Time: 9/27/2009 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Miami and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their last game finish above the total. Those results have helped keep this afternoon's over/under line generously high. While Monday's game did finish above the total, the Dolphins did manage to chew up and control the clock very effectively, slowing down their Wildcat formation. I expect another heavy dose of the Wildcat, which normally should help to keep the score down. Note that the UNDER is still 10-3 the last 13 Miami games, including a 19-7 loss in this season's lone road game. As for the Chargers, they weren't happy with their defensive performance vs. the Ravens and they'll be looking to tighten up significantly on that side of the ball. Yes, Rivers will still be throwing the ball fairly regularly. However, they know they need to run the ball more effectively, even without Tomlinson, if only to help out the defense. Note that the Chargers have seen the UNDER go 3-0 the last three times they played a home game with a total ranging from 42.5 to 45. Last year's meeting between these teams finished with a score of just 17-10. That one stayed well below the total and I expect this one to do the same. *7 Annihilator please check back for Monday play/s
Ben burns anyone?
ARIZONA
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