Sunday, September 27, 2009 Handicapper: Mike Handzelek New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-104 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Play Title: Sneak Up & Bite You Dog
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Yes, these Giants have one of the strongest teams in the conference this year. But this remains a tricky spot for the Giants who have key injuries in the secondary and go on their 2nd straight road venture 7 coming off a a BIG Sunday night divisional win. The G-Men played to the hilt getting the benefit of a 4-0 turnover edge from Dallas despite giving up over 250 yards on the ground. The Buccaneers are a desperate 0-2 and must win for a glimpse at a now distant post-season Wild Card berth down the road. They hold a nice 16-6 ATS edge when being installed as a home dog. Running the ball effectively should trigger some success out of Bryan Leftwich & the passing game. The fact remains that the Giants are your best solid ATS road warrior, but the line value isn't present in this one. It's caught up New York here as they continue a brutal away stretch that should find them over-valued. Getting the "W" for the Giants is all they're interested with in a clear flat situation. Raheem Morris' team will put a scare in them and we say to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers & buy th point to + 7 1/2 for $200.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4/101 Atlanta Falcons Play Title: Better Than A Buckingham Palace Guard Change
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If you were watching the Patriots closely, you'll know that their offense is not in synch. They may be good enough to dart out to a lead today, but the cool-handed ice in his veins QB Matt Ryan of the Falcons won't be shook in the least. He's got 2 good running backs in Turner & Norwood to compliment a balanced attack that remains dangerous through the air with new found TE Gonzalez. The Falcons are clearly catching this Patriots defense in a tough transition. Helping the Birds cause is Jerod Mayo being out of the lineup as Ryan should exploit the Patriot "D" through mismatches in the secondary. The Falcon "D" can contain QB Tom Brady who is still a bit immobile and rusty from surgery. He's looking very ordinary at a 2/2 TD/INT ratio thus far. The Patriots are one of the weakest home teams ATS the last 17 turning in a 3-14 spread record. The oddsmakers have caught up to this one-time ATS dominator. I have one more important fact to remember. Matt Ryan will be juiced having his 1st homecoming after being @ the helm for many seasons @ Boston College. They'll be many Falcon backers in the stands @ Gillette Stadium this Sunday. This is a 2nd half track meet in the making that gives great value to the dog similar to the Titans/Texans affair last week. Our Better Than A Buckingham Palace Guard Change Play is to take the Atlanta Falcons who are emerging fast for $200.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: 118 Seattle Seahawks Play Title: Moneyline Dog Payback
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Some people think Hasselbeck is out and it's the Bears in a cakewalk. I think Seneca Wallace is very capable of managing the offense against Cutler & Chicago. The Steelers just laid a physical beating on the Bears similar to Tennessee the week before. Now examine the outcome. Chicago has not run the ball effectively (2.9 yards a rush & 64.5 yards a game) which is a main cog in winning ATS on the road. They also remain 1-5 ATS their last 6 travelling. Also, teams upsetting the Super Bowl champs are an ice-cold 17-38 ATS the following week. This imbalance of downfield heavy passing Jay Cutler can lead to more interceptions when in a tough venue like Seattle. The Seahawks remain a trusted home favorite ATS going 7-1 their last 8 & should welcome Forte in the Bear backfield after facing a beast in Frank Gore of SF. Let's see how effective Chicago is when Cutler gets caught ignoring important checkdowns on the line of scrimmage. We think seldom. He's hot and cold coming off a hot week. You know what to do! Take the Seattle Seahawks as our Moneyline Dog Payback for $200 to risk.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Green Bay Packers vs. St Louis Rams (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 41.5/-105 Over Play Title: BIG Doubleplay Oddsmakers' Totals Error
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The Rams haven't stopped anyone this season giving up 404 yards a game. They have holes in the secondary that has Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers salivating. We are expecting them to be juiced up for the home opener and play inspired football. Inspiration only goes so far until the 2nd half comes around. There should be plenty of fireworks before all is said and done here. Green Bay realizes that its run game is pretty much in the tank. They will attempt to run early but abandon that game plan in the 2nd half after stretching the Rams secondary. Pressure from DE's Leonard Little & Chris Long may have worked against Washington last week but it was a very rare occasion. After all, that was the 1st time in 23 games the Rams defense was able to yield no touchdowns! Bottom line says even though Aaron has struggled a bit, he will figure out how to get around the porous play from his offensive tackles Clifton & Barbre. On the other side of the ball, we see Marc Bulger becoming effective with a balanced offense in this venue @ the Edward Jones Dome as the Rams get the ground game going with a now healthy Steven Jackson. I think the Packers want the "W" before Minnesota while not giving up too many defensive wrinkles in Dom Capers 3-4 defensive scheme. Because of that fact, this has the term "shootout" written all over it. Green Bay should get some points but also need a healthy defense for that pivotal game next week. We have this total set @ 49 so take Green Bay and St. Louis to go OVER the total for $400 as our BIG Doubleplay Oddsmakers' Totals Error Of The Week.
Handicapper: Mike Handzelek Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Total: 48/-106 Under Play Title: A Big Thunder On An Under
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There will be a BIG thunder on an UNDER here as Arizona's defensive coordinator Bill Davis had his defense working since training camp against the likes of the no-huddle offense & QB's changing plays on the line of scrimmage. He's practiced a good ball-hawking secondary against Kurt Warner who mimics the Colts offense perfectly. Manning is facing the Ex-Steelers' coaches who stopped him on more than one occasion in his career. With an inconsistent running game, Manning will be forced to run an offense of short dinks, draws and what is given to him up the middle. He'll achieve some success but Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne won't be enough to push this one OVER the total. The other side of the ball has Brackett & Sanders hurt which should mean "run" for Arizona. The Colts have given up an average of 176 yards on the ground in 2 games thus far & creates a golden opportunity for Arizona to run more. The bottom line still points out 2 QB's throwing today that can give you a very high rate of completions. This means a controlled passing game by both offenses and a constant movement of the clock. Our Big Thunder On An UNDER play says to invest $200 on the Indianapolis-Arizona game to go UNDER the total @ University of Phoenix Stadium.