Missouri is the pick. I just don't see how Nevada will even keep it close. The only argument for playing Nevada is that they do well in season openers, and thats it. I know Nevada's last 2 games have been on the road but they have lost both of them by a combined 50 points. See below comments from Al Demarco...
"We’ve got another weekday college football affair tonight, with Missouri (3-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) traveling to Reno to take on Nevada (0-2 SU and ATS). A couple trends to ponder:
The Tigers are on positive pointspread runs of 11-4 outside the Big 12, 10-3 on the highway and 6-1 in non-conference road games. They’re also on an 11-0 ATS tear as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, with tonight’s line hovering around 7.5.
The Wolf Pack have dropped five straight ATS decisions (1-4 SU), dating to last season, and they are on a 1-6 ATS slide in non-conference action, but they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home outings, with tonight’s contest serving as their home opener.
I didn't have a good feel about last nights game, but tonight I feel good about Mizzou. Gotta just pull the triger and let the chips fall where they may.