“2 UNIT” FOOTBALL INTANGIBLE (Nevada +7’ at home versus Missouri in a 9:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN):

The key to this entire selection has to do with one year ago when Missouri pounded Nevada by a 69-17 count in front of their own home fans. During that blowout Missouri actually RUBBED IT IN with a touchdown pass off a “fake field goal” midway through quarter #3 when the Tigers were already leading by a 28 point margin. You can bet your bottom dollar that Nevada remembers that snub and one can argue that tonight is the most important remaining game on their schedule. So far 2009 has been horrible for the Wolfpack who were forced to open a new campaign with a pair of road games against quality opposition. Nevada already has appeared on National-TV once when they traveled to Notre Dame opening week and promptly got pounded by the Fighting Irish who were out to erase memories of a very poor 2008 effort. Basically the Wolfpack were at “the wrong place at the wrong time” opening week. The real shock was that following a bye week where they did not play, Nevada lost yet again even though being cast as a 5-point road favorite. In week-two the Wolfpack succumbed to a Colorado State squad that was fresh off an upset of rival Colorado which means the Wolfpack once again were at “the wrong place at the wrong time”. It was one year ago when Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick was named the WAC Conference “offensive player of the year” while Vai Tava was the league’s rushing leader. But both of those stars are off to horrible starts just like the entire Wolfpack team who currently is ranked dead-last nationally in turnover ratio. Due to an offense that constantly has turned the ball over, Nevada’s defense has spent too much time on the field and has already surrendered SIX different touchdowns of 25+ yards in length, while opposing quarterbacks are completing 68% of their pass attempts. Despite all of the negatives Nevada has a more VETERAN roster than that of Missouri which makes them dangerous underdogs, especially at home were teams from the west generally have problems luring BCS league-affiliated opponents. Missouri suffered serious graduation losses on both sides of the football including at quarterback where Chase Daniel is now gone. I will admit that new signal-caller Blaine Gabbert currently leads the Big-12 Conference in pass efficiency, but he has had the benefit of facing 3 opponents (Illinois, Bowling Green, Furman) who will not be on National-TV anytime soon. We all so Mississippi fail miserably last night in their first true test of 2009 and Missouri is in the same situation. Nevada has a legendary head coach Chris Ault who in 25 years at the helm has amassed 198 career victories and is very popular figure out west. Nevada just happens to be 10-2 ATS/HOME when the posted total has been between 56’-and-63 points which is the case this evening. Missouri is off a 52-12 whipping of “cupcake” Furman which opens the door to another interesting database angle. Long term Missouri is a horrible 4-14 ATS when off a margin victory of 28+ points which puts them in a “go against” spot late tonight.