The Twinkies are hot with nine win in its past 10 games but so are the pesky Royals with 12 wins in its last 17 games. The difference here is that the Royals Robinson Tejada has been just sick since being inserted into the starting rotation. In four straight starts against the Tigers twice, the Angels and the White Sox covering 22.1 frames, Tejada has allowing nine hits and two earned runs for an ERA of 0.81. He’s also struck out 24 batters over that same stretch. In short, he’s been the major’s best pitcher over a four-start period. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has had very little success against the Royals. He’s already faced KC five times this season so they know him well. In those five starts he’s 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA after allowing 38 hits and 23 runs in 30 innings of work. The Royals have collectively hit .310 off Pavano and that’s mostly when they were cold. Now the Royals are very warm and have a huge edge on the hill, thus the five-inning wager. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).