The Phillies look to move another step closer to capturing their third consecutive N.L. East title while pushing the Marlins closer to elimination when these division rivals wrap up a three-game, two-day series at Land Shark Stadium. Philadelphia will send ace Cole Hamels (2-2, 4.24) to the hill opposite Rick VandenHurk (10-9, 4.07).
These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Phillies cruising 9-3 in the opener then losing 3-0 in the finale. Philadelphia leads the N.L. East by 7 ½ games over the Braves and 8½ over the Marlins, and its magic number to clinch the division is down to five. The defending world champs have won 11 of their last 15 overall, including eight of the last 10, all against division rivals. They’re 5-3 on the road during this stretch, and Philadelphia is on additional upticks of 24-10 in divisional play, 12-5 versus winning teams, 6-1 on Wednesday and 7-2 against right-handed starters.
Florida has lost seven of its last 12 at home, five of seven against lefty starters and six of eight at home against southpaws, but is otherwise on positive runs of 9-4 against N.L. East rivals and 4-0 on Wednesday.
By winning the nightcap of last night’s doubleheader, the Marlins ended Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak at Land Shark Stadium. Still, the road team has dominated this rivalry in 2009, winning 12 of the first 14 meetings.
Hamels is coming off back-to-back 4-2 home wins over the Mets (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings) and Nationals (one run allowed in eight innings). Philly is 4-1 in Hamels’ last five trips to the mound, with the lefty posting a 1.43 ERA during this stretch. However, the Phillies have lost four of Hamels’ last five starts on the road, where the San Diego native is just 3-6 this year with a 4.98 ERA in 14 outings.
Hamels has struggled in his young career against the Marlins, going 2-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 10 starts. Also, Philly is 1-6 in his last seven starts against the Fish and 1-4 in his five career outings in South Beach.
VandenHurk has a 2.40 ERA in his last three trips to the hill (four earned runs allowed in 15 innings), though he doesn’t have anything to show for it, getting three no-decisions. However, the Marlins won all three games, beating Atlanta 8-7 at home while scoring road wins at the Mets (4-2) and Reds (4-3). In four home starts, the 6-foot-5 right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA. VandenHurk is also 0-2 with a bloated 12.79 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies, losing 11-1 and 9-1 in Philadelphia in 2007.
The Phillies have stayed under the total in Hamels’ last seven starts overall, his last four on the road and his last four against the N.L. East, and the under is 13-3-1 in his last 17 when starting the third game of a series. Conversely, the over is 5-2 in VandenHurk’s last seven starts overall and 4-0 in his last four at home.
As a team Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall (all against the N.L. East), 11-4 against winning teams, 25-9 in the third game of a series and 17-8 on Wednesday, however the over is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last seven as a visitor. Meanwhile, the under is 6-1-1 in Florida’ s last eight games overall, but otherwise the over for the Marlins is on streaks of 20-8 at home, 6-2 on Wednesday and 8-4 versus lefty starters.
Finally, the over is 55-26-3 in the last 84 Phillies-Marlins meetings in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Yankees (96-56) at L.A. Angels (90-61)
The Yankees conclude a six-game West Coast road trip and cap their season series against the Angels with an afternoon affair in Anaheim, as New York’s A.J. Burnett (11-9, 4.22 ERA) is set to oppose Los Angeles lefty Scott Kazmir (9-8, 5.08).
After losing Monday’s opener to the Angels 5-2, the Yankees squandered a 5-0 lead last night, but got a run in the top of the ninth and held on for a 6-5 victory, becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff berth. New York is just 2-3 on the road trip and 5-6 in its last 11 overall. However, Joe Girardi’s squad remains on impressive streaks of 58-24 overall, 17-8 on the road, 38-17 versus southpaw starters, 7-2 on the road against lefties, 41-13 on Wednesday and 36-16 against teams with a winning record.
Los Angeles is still 4-2 in its last six games, and Mike Scioscia’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 at home, 14-7 against the A.L. East and 41-14 in the third game of a series. The Angels also hold a slim 5-4 lead in the season series with New York, and the home team is 7-2 in the nine meetings this year and 14-3 in the last 17 clashes. The Yanks have won just twice in their last seven games at Angel Stadium.
Burnett pitched well at Seattle on Friday, allowing a run on seven hits in seven innings, but closer Mariano Rivera blew a 2-1, ninth-inning lead and the Yankees fell 3-2, dropping to 2-5 in Burnett’s last seven starts. They’re also 1-4 in his last five road efforts, but 4-0 in his last four Wednesday outings. Despite the strong performance at Seattle, Burnett is just 6-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the highway this season.
Burnett faced the Angels on April 30 in the Bronx and yielded four runs on eight hits in seven innings, but the Yankees prevailed, 7-4. He’s 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Halos.
Kazmir has been brilliant since getting dealt to the Angels last month, allowing a total of five runs (four earned) in four starts, including pitching six shutout innings in Friday’s 2-0 victory in Texas, his first win in an L.A. uniform. Going back to his time with Tampa Bay, Kazmir has registered seven consecutive quality starts, allowing 11 total earned runs in 45 innings (2.20 ERA).
The Angels have posted a pair of 3-2 victories in Kazmir’s two home starts, with the lefty allowing a combined three runs on 10 hits in 13 innings (2.08 ERA). Also, he’s shined against the Yankees in his career, going 6-4 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts), including 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts this year.
With Burnett on the bump, New York is on “under” runs of 16-7-2 overall, 3-1-1 against the A.L. East and 4-0-1 on Wednesday. Also, all four of Kazmir’s starts with the Angels have stayed low, and the under is 6-0 in his last six outings going back to his time with the Rays.
The Yankees are on “under” rolls of 4-2 overall, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 3-0-1 against lefty starters and 8-3 on Wednesday, but the over is still 10-5 in their last 15 road games. Meanwhile, L.A. carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 16-6-1 versus right-handed starters.
Conversely, the over is 22-9 in the last 31 Yankees-Angels battles overall, with 14 of the last 18 in Anaheim topping the posted total.
The Sports Advisors 9/23
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