With time running out on their wild-card chances, the Marlins open a key three-game, two-day series against the division-leading Phillies with a double-header at Land Shark Stadium. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton (10-7, 3.97 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Marlins ace Josh Johnson (15-4, 3.01) in the opener, with Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05) slated to start the nightcap for Philadelphia against Anibal Sanchez (2-7, 4.50).
The Phillies, who lead the N.L. East by five games over both the Braves and Marlins, roll into South Beach having won 10 of their last 13 games, including seven of the last eight, all against division rivals, going 4-2 on the road during this stretch. The defending champs have been getting tremendous pitching, allowing two runs or fewer in five of their last seven contests. Philadelphia enters this series on runs of 23-9 in divisional play, 5-1 after a victory, 4-0 in series openers, 21-6 in opening game of a double header, 11-4 versus winning teams, 42-20 on Tuesday and 27-11 after an off day.
Florida, which like the Phillies was idle on Monday, comes off a seven-game road trip in which it went 4-3, ending with Sunday’s 8-1 blowout loss at Cincinnati. The Marlins, who trail Colorado by five games in the wild-card race, have played just three of their last 16 games in South Beach, and they lost two of those three to the lowly Nationals. Florida has lost six of its last 10 at home, but is otherwise on positive runs of 8-3 against N.L. East rivals, 5-1 after a loss, 5-1 on Tuesday and 4-0 following a day off.
The road team has dominated this rivalry in 2009, winning 11 of the first 12 meetings. Also, going back to the final series of 2008, Philadelphia is on an 8-0 run playing in Florida.
Blanton scattered six hits and four walks in six scoreless innings in Wednesday’s 6-1 victory over the Nationals. He’s now pitched at least six innings while allowing three runs or fewer in 12 of his last 13 starts and 17 of his last 20 outings dating to May 26. Behind Blanton, Philly is on upticks of 14-6 against the N.L. East, 9-4 in series openers and 13-6 against winning teams, but the squad is just 8-10 in his last 18 efforts overall and 1-7 in his last eight road starts. For the season, Blanton is 3-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 starts as a visitor.
Johnson is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s now yielded four runs or fewer in 29 of 30 starts this season, allowing three runs or less 27 times. The Marlins are 38-18 in the right-hander’s last 56 trips to the mound, including 17-5 in his last 22 at home and 27-9 in his last 36 against N.L. East foes. This year, Johnson is 7-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 15 starts at Land Shark Stadium.
Moyer was banished to the bullpen in favor of Pedro Martinez in early August, but he has made two starts this month, allowing a combined seven runs on 10 hits in 13 innings (4.85 ERA), with the Phillies losing 4-3 at Houston on Sept. 7 and 10-9 to the Mets at home 10 days ago. Philadelphia has come up empty in Moyer’s last four starts in a row, though they’re 5-1 in his last six on the highway and 36-15 in his last 51 starts against the N.L. East. He’s 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA on the road this season.
Sanchez has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, but he’s pitched past the fifth inning just twice during this stretch, never going longer than six innings. On Thursday in Cincinnati, he lasted five innings, surrendering three runs in a 3-2 loss. The Marlins have taken 13 of Sanchez’s last 19 home starts – where he’s 0-3 with a 4.00 ERA in six games this season – but they’re 1-4 in his last five trips to the hill overall and 1-4 in his last five Tuesday outings.
Blanton is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against Florida (1-1, 1.98 ERA in two games this year), while Moyer is an astounding 13-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 16 career starts against the Marlins (2-2, 2.63 ERA in four games this year), including 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA in eight starts in Florida.
Johnson is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA all-time against the Phillies (nine appearances, including seven starts), going 1-0 with a microscopic 0.69 ERA in two games this year (one run allowed in 13 innings). Meanwhile, Sanchez is 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in five lifetime starts versus Philadelphia, with the Marlins losing all five.
For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall, 10-2 in series openers, 4-0 after a day off, 5-1 on Tuesday,10-3 against winning teams, 6-1-1 when Blanton pitches against divisional opponents and 4-0 when Moyer starts on the road. However, as a team, the over is 4-1 in the Phillies’ last five as a visitor.
Florida carries team “under” trends of 5-0-1 overall, 5-0 on Tuesday, 10-3-1 overall behind Sanchez and 7-2-1 when Sanchez faces divisional rivals, but otherwise the over for the Marlins is on streaks of 19-7 at home, 4-1 in the first game of a doubleheader, 20-8-1 when Johnson faces the N.L. East, 5-1-2 when he starts on Tuesday and 13-4-2 when he opens a series.
Finally, the over is 54-25-3 in the last 82 Phillies-Marlins meetings in Miami and 4-0 in Johnson’s last four starts against Philadelphia, but the under is 4-1 in Moyer’s last five games in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE GAME 1): FLORIDA and OVER
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (95-56) at L.A. Angels (90-60)
American League division leaders that are destined for the playoffs continue a three-game series at Angel Stadium, with Ervin Santana (7-8, 5.43 ERA) slated to toe the slab for the hosts opposite the Yankees’ Chad Gaudin (5-10, 4.81 ERA overall; 1-0, 3.68 with New York).
The Yankees dropped to 1-3 on their current West Coast road swing with last night’s 5-2 loss in Anaheim. Still, they’re on impressive streaks of 57-24 overall, 16-8 on the road, 38-18 in the second game of a series, 8-3 on Tuesday and 36-15 when facing right-handed starters. Also, New York has come up victorious in each of Gaudin’s four starts with the club.
The Angels have won four of their last five and are 7-1 in their last eight at home. However, despite Monday’s win, they’ve lost four of their last six to A.L. East foes.
Los Angeles holds a slim 5-3 lead in the season series with New York, and the home team is 7-1 this year and 14-2 in the last 16 meetings.
Gaudin has surrendered 0, 3, 1 and 3 runs in his first four starts since coming over in a trade from San Diego, and while the Yankees won all four games – including Wednesday’s 5-4 home win over Toronto – three were one-run victories. Also, Gaudin hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in any of his last six starts going back to his time with the Padres. Combined, the right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 road appearances (13 starts) this year (0-0, 4.82 ERA in two on the road with the Yankees).
Santana has delivered a quality start seven times in his last eight trips to the mound, including on Thursday in Boston, when the right-hander allowed three runs in seven innings. He failed to get a decision, though the Angels eventually scored a 4-3 win, ending a four-game losing skid with Santana pitching. Los Angeles is just 1-5 in Santana’s last six at home – where he’s 1-5 with a 7.24 ERA in nine games this season – but they’re unbeaten in his last four starts against the A.L. East (including Thursday’s win in Boston).
With the Padres, Gaudin faced the Angels in Anaheim during interleague play on July 12 and got destroyed, allowing eight runs on 10 hits in three innings of an 11-6 loss. He’s 3-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 18 career appearances (eight starts) versus L.A. Meanwhile, Santana is 5-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Bronx Bombers.
The over is 9-5 in New York’s last 14 road games and 5-1-1 in its last seven on Tuesday, but the under is 5-1 in the Yanks’ last five against the A.L. West. Meanwhile, L.A. carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 6-0-1 on Tuesday, 16-5-1 versus right-handed starters, 5-0 with Santana on the mound, 4-1-1 when Santana starts at home and 4-1 when he hurls on Tuesday.
Finally, the over is 21-9 in the last 30 Yankees-Angels battles overall, with 13 of the last 17 in Anaheim topping the posted total. Also, going back to his days with Oakland, Gaudin has topped the total in five of his last six starts against New York.
The Sports Advisors 9/22
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