Cincinnati +1.02 over PITTSBURGH PINNACLE
Let’s see now; the Pirates just lost three of four to the Padres and that includes an 11-inning, 11-6 loss last night while the Reds were resting. The Bucs have also lost six of seven. The Reds have beaten the Pirates five straight times since Aug 23 and they’ve outscored them 30-15. Johnny Cueto has his groove back since returning from the DL and in fact, in three starts since returning, he’s 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA. The Reds have been very warm for about a month now. They’ve won five of seven and 18 of its last 28 ball games. Zach Duke has 10 wins for a bottom feeder but he also has 14 losses. He has very average stats right across the board and that includes a 1.31 WHIP to go along with a BAA of .286. In three September starts, Duke has an ERA of 6.75 after allowing 25 hits and 13 earned runs in 17.1 innings of work. So, we have warm vs cold, the better pitcher, the better offense and a small take-back. Sweet. Play: Cincinnati +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +2.07 over COLORADO PINNACLE
Price here most definitely has influence, as this tag is just too high with Jorge De La Rosa going. This guy is having a phenomenal year, no doubt about that but let’s not forget who he is. He’s never pitched more than 130 innings in his six-year career and the Rockies are his third or fifth team depending on how you look at it. After the Brewers gave up on him the Royals gave him a shot and subsequently he went back to both Milwaukee and K.C. Both those pitching starved franchises gave up on De La Rosa twice. In his career he has 40 wins and 40 losses to go along with a 5.13 ERA. He’s on an incredible four-game run that’s seen him give up just three earned runs in 26 frames. The problem is that he’s not likely to sustain that because all average pitchers just don’t sustain that momentum for long stretches and very few well-above average pitchers can either. The Padres just saw him in San Diego and they have a bit of momentum themselves with six wins in its last nine games. Edward Mujica has walked just 16 batters in 85 frames and has a very impressive 1.18 WHIP. Against the Rockies in 11.1 innings this season, Mujica has an ERA of 0.77, a .154 BAA and he’s struck out 10 Rockies as well. They have found him very difficult to hit. So, while De La Rosa has been brilliant and could easily win again here, the Padres have a good match-up, a terrific price and a very decent shot to pull the upset. Overlay. Play: San Diego +2.07 (Risking 2 units).