[tinfw17]

KING CREOLE...

7:00pm ET / Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

One of the topics in this week's Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET covered the area of HIGH Over / Under lines in week one action. And the recommendation is to go UNDER the Total in these games. If you followed that plan yesterday, you went 4-1 overall.

6-27 O/U since 2000: All NFL Week One games in which the OU Line is 45 > points. In the last 5 years, these games gave gone an amazing 1-14 O/U. Yesterday's results for these game: Colts / Jags: WINNER... Cards / Niners: WINNER... Packers / Bears: WINNER... Saints / Lions: Loser.

This New England / Buffalo AFC East division series has had VERY Low-scoring results in the last 10 years. These teams are 4-16 O/U vs each other in the last 20 meetings. And when playing IN New England, the results are 1-9 O/U. Average OU line: 39.7. Average combined points: only 34.2.

BIG favorites on Monday night football have also trended UNDER recently.
2-9 O/U since 2000: All MONDAY home favs of > 10 points (Pats), If the OU Line is > 36 points, the results improve to 1-8 O/U.

Speaking of Mondays. let's look at the division aspect of this game.
2-8 O/U since 2002: All MONDAY division home favs with an OU Line of 45 > pts.
Buffalo comes in with Revenge from a couple of losses last season (both went UNDER!).

10-23 O/U since 2004: All GAME ONE teams playing with division Revenge (Bills). These REVENGERS went 1-4 O/U yesterday. And when the OU line is > 43 points, our 10-23 O/U System improves to 1-7 O/U.

Let's look at the point spread / OU line combination:

1-8 O/U since 2004: All GAME SIX or less division home favs of -3 to -13 points... with an OU Line range of 46 to 48 points (Pats).
Here's a query based on last year's WIN totals for the host Patriots:

2-12 O/U last 4 years: All GAME ONE home favs of -3 to -13 points.... if they won 11 or more games the previous season (Pats).

I ran a final query for AFC EAST division battles in the first half of the season. When the OU Line is relatively higher, the UNDER has ruled.

1-8-1 O/U since 2003: All AFC EAST division games in the first TWO months of the season when the OU Line is > 41 points (Like tonight).