Indian Cowboy GOW 9/14
5 Unit Play. Game of the week. Take Under 9.5 between Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles (Monday @ 7:05pm). David Hernandez comes off one of his worst outings of his career. He gave up 6 runs in in less than three innings to Boston on the road. The Orioles went on to lose that game 0-10 at Fenway. Hernandez needs a quality start at home today as he faces another quality team in the Rays. Hernandez has good stuff and he showed it against the Oakland A's when he won 3-2 earlier this year as well as defeating the Redsox at Fenway. I look for him to get back to form as he faced two of the best teams in the league in Boston and New York. David Price also faced the Yankees and Redsox in back to back starts. He gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings in New York but picked up a no-decision against the Yankees as the Rays fell short 2-3. David has pitched 4 of 5 quality starts and I has not picked up a win since August 29th at Detroit and I expect him to look for the win today. I like the 9.5 line here as Price and Hernandez both are on bounce-backs of sorts and I think this game can stay within single digits. I talk often about the 65% and -130 line. Basically what it states is when there is a consensus of 65% on a team, in particular, a road team and the line still remains at -130 and doesn't shift too much, Vegas is expecting a quality start from the home dog pitcher. Consequently, this game has a sound chance of going under. We have cashed on this principle several times already and I see no reason to change here. The Under is 5-0-1 for Price when the total is set at this range of late and the Under is 7-3 when the Orioles face a lefty of late
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