[tinfw17]

Dave Malinsky Top of the Ticket - Total

UNDER 7.5 RUNS,CINCINNATI REDS (Arroyo)-vs- Houston Astros (Rodriguez)

4* #901 HOUSTON/CINCINNATI Under

If you are looking for two hitter pitchers right now than Wandy Rodriguez or Bronson Arroyo, you have to look long and hard. But because neither pitches for a contender, and because Arrroyo in particular is being anchored down by full-season statistics that carry a lot of unnecessary clutter, we are afforded more than fair value here, especially with all key arms in both bullpens rested and ready. Rodriguez has held the opposition to one run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts, and absolutely brilliant run. But we also get a bonus here, as he only threw 85 pitches in his last outing, and that means more than the usual freshness for this time of the season. Meanwhile Arroyo battled with carpal tunnel syndrome earlier in the season, and it led to a couple of disastrous outings that inflated his ERA. But he is at full health now, and also full confidence, working to a sparkling 1.39 over his last six starts, a span in which he has worked at least seven full innings each time. And in his last three starts from this mound he has allowed only three runs over 24.1 frames. But because he was only credited with two wins over those six games the markets paid little attention, instead using his full-season numbers as an anchor to weigh him down. Neither Jose Valverde nor Francisco Cordero worked yesterday, as was the case with the prime set-up men. That means quality pitching from both sides in every inning of this one, and two struggling offenses will be hard-pressed to make anything happen.