[mp5070]

Play Title **BIG GAME ALERT** Burns *10* G.O.W! (EARLY KICK!)
Play Selected Point Spread: 4/-110
I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND. Nearly everyone is pretty down on the Browns these days while many are sky-high on the Vikings. In my opinion, that public opinion has helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog Browns. Yes, the Vikings fans have reason to be optimistic this season. However, I'm still not convinced that signing Favre was the answer. Keep in mind that the aging veteran was brutal down the stretch. In fact, Favre's terrible play at the end of the season was one of the reasons that the Jets fired Coach Mangini. Coincidentally, Mangini just happens to be here in Cleveland now. Keep in mind that before Favre's collapse, Mangini was still considered (by many) to be a 'genius.'(He did guide the Jets to a 10-6 record in his first season there.) While it remains to be see how he'll fare here in Cleveland, I do expect Mangini to have his new team absolutely fired up for their home opener. I should also note that I like the decision to go with Quinn as the Browns starting QB. While preseason results should be taken with a grain of salt, for a team making some changes, I do pay at least a little attention to how they did in Game 3 - the game where the starters see the most time. Looking at the Browns NFLX Game 3 result and we find that the defeated the Titans by a score of 23-7. Quinn finished the game having gone 11/15 for 128 yards and a touchdown with 0 interceptions. While its been some time since the Browns won their opening game, they do have a 5-3 ATS record in September the past couple of seasons. They're also a profitable 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be surprised by an outright victory. *10 GOW

[mp5070]

Burns 10*

Play Title **HUGE** Burns' Div. TOTAL OF THE MONTH *10-0 RUN!
Play Selected Total: 46.5/-105
I'm playing on Chicago and Green Bay to finish UNDER the total. This o/u number has climbed since it first came out. The current line, which has climbed above the key number of 44, isn't the highest on the board - but its among the highest. For a Week 1 battle between a pair of bitter NFC North rivals, I believe that its too high. Granted, the Bears offense is expected to be improved this season. However, I also expect the GB defense to be better than it was last season. Looking at the history between these teams and we find that none of the last meetings have had an over/under line of greater than 44.5. Looking at last year's two games and we find that the o/u lines for those games were 43 (at GB in Nov.) and 40 (at Chi. in Dec.). Both games finished below the total. The first finished with 40 combined points, the second game had 37. While the Packers have been profitable to 'over' bettors overall in recent seasons, it should be noted that the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. As for the Bears, they've seen the UNDER go 10-6 on the road the past couple of seasons, including 3-2 when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The UNDER was 10-6 in Week 1 last season and we've already seen the Thurs. Night game of Week 1 finish below the total. The Bears and Colts combined for 42, an 'under.' The Packers were one of the few teams that did finish 'over' the total. However, that was because their game was against the Vikings and had an o/u line in the 30s. The teams still only combined for 43 points. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. *10 NFC North TOM

[Webby]

his daily top plays remain strong

[clappen]

mp5070 if you do have his other NFL plays and his MLB i would really appriciate if you could post those.