Randall the Handle

CAROLINA +1.26 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
The anticipation of the football season is at its highest point ever, as the NFL has done a masterful job marketing its product and thus, the fan-base and interest is absolutely incredible. The reason for mentioning this is because the hype on the Eagles is high too because of its signing of Michael Vick. In fact, the Eagles have been front-page sports news almost daily since June and it wasn’t just in Pennsylvania either. All over the country and on all sports-radio talk, all we’ve heard is Eagles, Eagles and more Eagles and the result of all this is a line that is 100% inflated. Are the Eagles any better than last year’s team? I think not. They’re counting on a few rookies on offense, they lost Brian Dawkins and Lito Sheppard on defense and they also lost its defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, who passed away this off-season after a long bout with cancer. The Eagles are on the road and playing a team that went 8-0 at home last season and that returns 21 of 22 starters. It’s also worth mentioning that the Panthers averaged 30 points a game at home while allowing just 13 a game. Finally, this game opened with Philly being a 1-point choice and the money has not stopped on the Eagles. It’s already up to –2½ and it’ll very likely be –3 by game time. That is a huge red flag and even if you can’t pull the trigger on the Panthers, I’m urging you to lay off the favorite because there are too many danger signs in betting the Eagles. This is an older team that really was not impressive in the preseason and all the hype on them is just that, hype and nothing else. Play: Carolina +1.26 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +6½ over ARIZONA Sports Interaction
Most places have this line at –6 and I would not hesitate for a moment to take that but we see a +6½ at SIA and there’s nothing wrong with shopping for the best price. Not only can the 49ers cover this spread they can easily win this one outright, as the Cards are a very mediocre squad that got hot at the right time last season. Kurt Warner also got hot but let’s not forget that this is a 38-yr-old QB that looked awful in the preseason and it’s hard to ignore the fact that he “lost it” after a good run while with the Rams a few years ago and now you can add about 10 years to that. No chance does this guy repeat last year’s numbers. This is not the same Cardinals team as last year, as they lost both its offensive and defensive coordinators and that means changes everywhere for a team in danger of suffering a major hangover. Meanwhile, Mike Singletary is a no-nonsense guy that has the 49ers moving in the right direction. He played for some great teams and knows what it takes and is instilling that in each and every player. They responded by going 5-2 in the final seven games a year ago and that includes a Monday night game in Arizona in what was one of the more bizarre losses in recent memory. Fact is, they should’ve closed the season 6-1. 49ers are not a great team but they’re better than last year, they’ll be very well prepped and they’ll be playing a team that went 0-4 in the preseason. That could mean nothing but losing all its preseason games cannot be a positive thing for the psyche. These Cardinals have been one of the worst favorites to bet on over the years and this one likely won’t be any different. Play: San Francisco +6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

INDIANAPOLIS –7 over Jacksonville PINNACLE
We’ve heard a ton this off-season about New England, Philly, Minnesota, the Packers and Bears and not much ado has been made about the Colts. In fact, for the first time in a while, the Colts are actually flying a little under the radar and that’s a pretty sweet place to be for them. Peyton Manning started last year underweight and a very rusty but this year he comes in healthy and hungry and a determined and focused Manning is the most dangerous QB in the business, bar none. The Colts are loaded on offense and if Joseph Addai can run get some room and open up the running game, look out. As for the Jags, well, this team was a complete dumpster-fire in the second half and they’ve made a ton of changes and that includes letting go every receiver (Reggie Williams, Jerry Porter, Matt Jones and Dennis Northcutt) they had. They have one experienced receiver, aging Torry Holt, and they also departed ways with RB Fred Taylor. That leaves Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield, an average QB in David Garrard, a slew of unproven receivers and a defense minus Mike Peterson, not to mention a new defensive coordinator. This Jags team is under heavy construction and frankly I don’t like what I see. Expect the Colts to be sharp offensively, jacked up and raring to go against what should be a very beatable and ripe opponent. Play Indianapolis –7 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Other games

Washington +6½ over NY GIANTS
The total is low, the Skins defense is greatly improved and these seem like a lot of points to be spotting them this early in the year. The Giants have lost some key players and that includes one half of the bruising RB tandem, as Derrick Ward is no longer a Giant. Steve Spagnuolo, the highly regarded defensive coordinator is also gone and so is the rifle of Plaxico Burress. The Skins need more offense to be sure but this team started strong a year ago before fading in the second half and in what should be a very low-scoring game, the points are too generous to pass up on. Play: Washington +6½ (No bets).

CLEVELAND +4 over Minnesota
Very tempting to pull the trigger on the Brownies here, as the whole world is on the Vikes and that’s never a good sign. Brett Favre cannot be trusted and while they might be able to hand the ball to Adrian Peterson all day and still cover, this one really smells like a rat to me. Cleveland was supposed to be last year’s sleeper or Cinderella if you will but a torturous season has them out of the spotlight this year. They’re not in that bad shape and with a new coaching staff and a potentially great QB in Brady Quinn these Brownies could be live this season. A lot more pressure on Childress and the Vikles to perform and historically this is a team that does not perform well when expected to win big. Play: Cleveland +4 (No bets).