Allen Eastman

3-Unit Play. Take #305 North Carolina (-4.5) over Connecticut (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 12)
Connecticut was just a small road favorite at Ohio last week and now they are a home underdog against North Carolina this week. The oddsmakers obviously don’t think much of this Connecticut team and I think that their beliefs are justified. They do have a strong running game but this strong North Carolina front is going to be much better than Ohio’s. North Carolina won at Rutgers last year by 32 points and beat Connecticut by 26 points at home. UNC has 15 starters and a majority of lettermen back from that team while Connecticut has just 12 starters back and is battling some injury issues. I like laying the small line on the more talented team.

2-Unit Play. Take #319 Mississippi State (+14) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12)
Last year defense dominated this game and the final score was 3-2. That’s not a misprint! Defense should again control this game and as a result I think that the points will hold up. I’m not a big believer in Gene Chizik at Auburn and I haven’t seen enough to justify them being this large of a favorite in a conference game. The Bulldogs won 19-14 in their last trip to Auburn in 2007 and that means they have lost the last two meetings by just a total of five points.

3-Unit Play. Take #339 Notre Dame (-3.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12)
Notre Dame and Michigan are both coming off routs last week but I was much more impressed with the Irish. Notre Dame has a significant experience advantage in this game. And they proved last year with their 35-17 win that the talent is clearly there. These games are very hyped up but recently they have been blowouts. The last three have been decided by an average of 27 points per game so I don’t have a problem laying just over a field goal. Experience wins out here.

4-Unit Play. Take #347 TCU (-11) over Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12)
Virginia is coming off a loss to a Div. I-AA school last week and they were sloppy while doing it. The Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the sorry ACC and they just don’t have the talent to compete against top teams. TCU did not play last week so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Cavs this weekend. TCU is a solid 13-6 SU against teams from BCS conferences over the last six years. They play their best against the top competition and I expect more of the same this weekend.

2-Unit Play. Take #387 Ohio (-2.5) over North Texas (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12)
North Texas went into Ball State and stole a win last week. But Ohio is a better team than Ball State this year and they are coming off a tough loss at home to Connecticut. North Texas is just 17-30 ATS over the last four years and they are just 6-8 ATS as a home dog. They have lost 21 of 25 games since the start of 2007 so I don’t think I’ve seen enough to think that last week wasn’t just a fluke.