[nemisis12]

Ok I have lost THOUSANDS following handicapper picks I lose money that I spent for the pick plus the money I spent for the bet. This place have really rescued me from throwing my money out the window paying for picks that dont go threw. I need to learn a money management system. If I start with a 1,000 bank roll how much should I lay on each bet????

Everytime I see LINE CRUSHER OF THE MONTH or TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR I get all excited throw the house on it and lose. I need help please anyone someone HELP????

[head_strong]

give me all your points and do not collect $200 when passing go.....

[masticore]

You shouldnt bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a "TOP BET"

[ohreally]

a good money management system to start: http://www.tonydiamond.com/art_bnkrll.html

if you bet as described you'll do fine!

[jhack704]

money management is the key!!!! you will lose with out a doubt but its the winnings that keep you upfloat. Pick a capper and do what he says each day such as i found chris jordan to be my favorite who is up over 15500 this yr. i have his package. he says what to bet each day such as $100 $300 and so forth, cept for me i bet half what he says because i dont feel comfortable placing alot more than that on 1 game. dont bounce around each day with different cappers and dont do more than you can afford to lose as well

[clownpuncher]

nemisis you didn't get hooked up with Jim Fiest and those losers did you?????

[clappen]

Exactly what he said. Pick a capper who is + money, tail them with how much they say (Units or $$) and just proffit. Lots of handicappers tell you how much to bet. Chris Jorda, RatedPicks, Wunderdog, are 3 of the ones I can recommend for giving you + money if you tail their picks.

Just follow a capper, and use money management, you should be fine. You wont get rich overnight, but in the long run, you should see a profit.

sorry for offtopic, but do you know where i can find Chris Jordan's stats for any of his past seasons?

[jmp]

Ok I have lost THOUSANDS following handicapper picks I lose money that I spent for the pick plus the money I spent for the bet. This place have really rescued me from throwing my money out the window paying for picks that dont go threw. I need to learn a money management system. If I start with a 1,000 bank roll how much should I lay on each bet????

Everytime I see LINE CRUSHER OF THE MONTH or TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR I get all excited throw the house on it and lose. I need help please anyone someone HELP????

Welcome to the motherland.

[peeiempee]

I think you know what it takes to win in sports betting already, you just have to put it into action. Discipline is key. With $1000, assuming you are following only 1 capper that puts out 6-12 units a day, you should just go 1% per unit so $10 per unit and that's risk. And don't play anything else and follow that tout through thick and thin. If you want to follow more than one capper you have to decrease the value of you units even more.BOL

[lillefty]

the guys from the st bernadine sports also are big proponents of $$$ management. They give you a percentage of your bankroll to bet for each play. They also have all their past records(both good and bad) for everyone to see on their own forum, whose name I won't mention here cuz that isn't right.

these guys in this post are right on with what they say though. Money management is the key. Betting a % of your bankroll on each play is the sure way to
1. keep from betting over your head
2. having to reload every couple of months
3. not fall victim to phony marketing ploys aka 600* games or 20,000 dime or my favorite the lock of all eternity games. Those games are no better than the others. it is just a fancy title to entice you, as you have found out.

good luck cashing this season
lillefty

[Joe Sharp]

Kelly Criterion

In 1956, the Kelly Criterion was developed by Edward L. Kelly, a physicist with AT&T Bell Laboratories. Kelly’s original concept was developed for betting on thoroughbred horse racing, but is applicable to all types of gambling, including the stock market and blackjack.


Kelly’s method is a mathematical formula that gives the percentage of bankroll to be wagered on an event to maximize profits, based on the odds and the probability of winning the bet. The formula looks more complex than it actually is and can be stated in three simple steps.


1. Multiply the odds of the event by the probability of winning.
2. Subtract the probability of losing from the number obtained in the first step.
3. Take the number obtained in the second step and divide by the odds.


For demonstrative purposes, let’s assume we are a football bettor who has a 56% winning percentage over time and is comfortable using that figure as the expected winning probability for future bets.


1. The first step is to take our 56% and multiply it by 11/10, the odds we give on a football bet, so we get .56 * .91 = .509.
2. Since our odds of winning are 56%, our odds of losing must be 44% or .440, which subtracted from .509 will give us a figure of .069.
3. Take .069 and divide by .91 and you will get a figure of .075 or 7.5%, which we would round up to 8%, therefore 8% would be the recommended percentage of your bankroll to wager on each game.


The Kelly Criterion also can be used when your odds of winning are less than 50%, but the odds are in your favor so that over the long run such a situation should yield a profit. For example, take a baseball team that we estimate has a 40 percent chance of winning a game, but sees the favorite installed as -180 (risking $180 to win a $100) and the underdog listed as +165 (risking $100 to win $165).


1. The first step is to take estimated odds of winning (40%) and multiply by the given odds of +165, so our first set of numbers shows .40 * 1.65 = .660.
2. Next, we take our probability of losing, which we have estimated to be 60% or .600 and subtract that from .660 and get .060.
3. The final step is to take our number from the second step (.060) and multiply by the odds on the game (of 1.65) and we get .060 * 1.65 = .099, which we would round up to .10 or 10%. Therefore, the suggested betting size in this situation would be 10% our bankroll.


For straight 11/10 wagers, the following table shows the recommended bet size per the Kelly Criterion. The figures in the left column are what we guess our winning percentages will be, while the number to the right is the Kelly Criterion's recommended percentage of our bankroll to wager on the event.


If we estimate our winning percentage in football betting is going to be 54%, the Kelly Criterion would have us wager 3.40% of our bankroll on every play. If we believe we will hit 57% winners, the Kelly Criterion has us betting 9.70% of our bankroll on each play.

[Joe Sharp]

Keep this in mind:

If you begin with a $1,000 bankroll and wager 10% of your money on one game a day, while laying -110 odds, while maintaining a 60% winning ratio, after 2,000 wagers your initial $1,000 would be a cool $550 billion. Yes, billion. Something to remember the next time you see a sports tout claiming to hit 65% over the last 10 years.

[alex81]

My advice is to NEVER bet more than 5% of your bankroll no matter what a capper says and to not let yourself get sucked into these liars claiming they have a "GUARANTEED WINNER!" Just remember NOTHING is EVER guaranteed in life except death and taxes!

[InTheHole]

Good Advice Folks