The Rays, whose wild-card hopes are fading fast, send rookie David Price (7-7, 4.75 ERA) to the hill opposite Chad Gaudin (5-10, 4.98 overall; 1-0, 4.08 with New York) as these A.L. East rivals continue a four-game series in the Bronx.
New York swept a day-night doubleheader from Tampa Bay on Monday, winning 4-1 and 11-1. The Yankees have won 10 of their last 12, allowing three runs or fewer in seven of those contests. They’re on additional surges of 51-18 overall, 41-13 at home, 25-6 against divisional foes, 13-4 against teams with a winning record, 4-1 on Tuesday, 36-15 versus southpaw starters and 42-17 as a favorite.
The Rays have now dropped six in a row, tallying three runs or less four times, and they’re just 3-11 in their last 14 contests, a slump that has all but ended their hopes of a return trip to the postseason. Tampa Bay is also in ruts of 0-5 against right-handed starters and 10-28 in the third game of a series.
New York has won six of the last seven meetings against Tampa Bay this year and is 57-24 in the last 81 series clashes in the Bronx. The visitor is 7-5 in the last 12 battles.
Price is coming off Thursday’s 6-3 home loss to Boston, yielding four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. The lefty has still surrendered three earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts, including his first road win of the season at Detroit on Aug. 29 when he scattered five hits and a run over 7 1/3 innings of a 3-1 victory. Still, Price is just 1-4 with a 6.81 ERA in eight road starts.
The Rays have alternated wins and losses in Price’s last five trips to the mound, but they’re 6-1 in his last seven starts against the A.L. East. Also, in his first career start against the Yankees on June 6 in New York, he gave up three runs (one earned) on two hits and five walks over 5 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s 9-7 win.
Gaudin started the season with the Padres and went 4-10 with a 5.13 ERA in 20 games (19 starters) before being traded to the Yankees. He’s made two starts since arriving in New York, giving up a total of three runs, five hits and eight walks in eight innings, with the Yanks winning both games on the road (3-2 at Oakland and 10-5 at Toronto). Gaudin faced the Rays twice in 2007, going 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA.
For Tampa Bay, the “under” is on runs of 5-2 on the road, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-2 on Tuesday, 35-17-4 against right-handed starters and 4-0-1 with Price on the hill. Meanwhile, New York is on “over” stretches of 6-2 overall (all against divisional opponents), 7-2 against winning teams, 4-0 on Tuesday and 4-1 against southpaw starters, but the under is 16-8-1 in the Yankees’ last 25 games in the Bronx.
Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last six battles between these rivals and 10-5 in the last 15 clashes in New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Seattle (72-66) at L.A. Angels (81-54)
The Mariners continue a seven-game, three-city A.L. West road trip when they open a three-game set against the Angels. Scott Kazmir (8-8, 5.68 ERA) will make his home debut for Los Angeles when he matches up against Seattle ace Felix Hernandez (14-5, 2.65) for the second time in five days.
Seattle had Monday off after splitting a four-game series in Oakland, winning the first two games 7-4 and 6-3 before losing the last two 9-5 and 5-2, with the defeats ending a four-game winning streak. The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 against A.L. West foes, but otherwise they’re in funks of 19-40 as an underdog, 1-5 after an off day and 1-6 on the highway versus southpaw starters.
The Angels took the first three games of a weekend series at Kansas City before falling 6-3 on Sunday. Prior to the defeat, L.A. had won five of seven, while giving up a total of just 10 runs. However, the Angels’ once-red-hot offense has been held to three runs or fewer in five of its last six games. Mike Scioscia’s club is still on runs of 52-25 overall and 18-8 in series openers.
These rivals met last week in Seattle with the Mariners taking two of three, capped by Wednesday’s 3-0 victory in which Hernandez (eight scoreless innings, four hits allowed) outdueled Kazmir (two runs, one earned, and three hits allowed in 6 1/3 innings). Seattle holds a 9-7 edge in the season series, but is just 9-20 in its last 29 games at Angel Stadium.
With Wednesday’s dominating outing against Los Angeles, Hernandez has now delivered 18 quality starts in his last 19 trips to the mound, including the last seven in a row. Also, in half of his 28 starts, the big right-hander has given up one or zero earned runs.
With Hernandez on the mound, the Mariners are on a slew of positive runs, including 20-8 overall, 8-2 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog, 4-0 against division rivals and 9-1 versus winning teams. He’s 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 15 road starts this year and 4-5 with a 4.40 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels, but in his last two against L.A., he gave up just one unearned run on 10 hits in 14 2/3 innings, with Seattle adding a 4-3 win in Anaheim on May 30 to his 3-0 home victory Wednesday.
Despite losing, Kazmir pitched well in his Angels debut and has now delivered four straight quality starts going back to his time with Tampa Bay, posting a 2.77 ERA with 29 strikeouts against just seven walks in 26 innings. The hard-throwing left-hander has made just one previous career start at Angel Stadium – in June of last season with Tampa Bay – allowing three runs on six hits while striking out 10 in 6 2/3 innings, but he lost, 4-2.
With Wednesday’s 3-0 setback, Kazmir is now 3-2 with a solid 2.93 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners. He has a 35-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five outings versus Seattle.
Behind their ace, the Mariners are on “under” streaks of 12-5-1 overall, 36-16-2 on the road and 28-13-1 as an underdog. However, the over is 8-3 in King Felix’s last 11 starts versus the Halos. Also, the under is 6-3 in Kazmir’s last nine starts (3-0 last three) and 4-1 in his last five outings against Seattle.
The under is 18-6 in Seattle’s last 24 games versus the A.L. West and 4-1-1 in its last six on Tuesday, but the over is 7-3-1 in the M’s last 11 road games, 4-1-1 in their last six after an off day and 8-1-1 in their last 10 series openers. Meanwhile, the Angels have stayed under the number in five straight games overall and four straight on Tuesday, but the over is 20-8 in their last 28 at home, 9-3-1 in their last 13 series openers and 35-16-4 in their last 54 when favored.
Lastly, the under is 6-2 in the last eight Mariners-Angels battles.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (+120, 9)
Brewers righthander Manny Parra has struggled with consistency and control all season. But for some reason, he seems to put it all together against the Cardinals.
In four starts against the NL Central leaders, Parra is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA - more than four earned runs lower than his season mark. He has allowed just one homer in 26 innings vs. the Cardinals compared to one every 5.7 innings against everyone else.
In his last start at St. Louis, Parra stopped the Cardinals on two runs and five hits over 6 1-3 innings of a 4-3 win.
The Brewers have been held under three runs in their last four games, their longest such stretch of the season.
Pick: Milwaukee
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-260, 6.5)
In Giants righthander Tim Lincecum's last 10 starts, the total has been 7.0 or less seven times and has never been higher than 8.0.
Although the under window appears to be virtually closed when the Cy Young candidate takes the hill, the total still has come in under eight times in that span.
Lincecum is 3-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 72 2-3 innings during that span. He has had better 10-start stretches this season, but at no time has he pitched more effectively against the total, nor have the totals been consistently as low.
Lincecum's mound foe is Kevin Correia, who pitched 7 2-3 scoreless innings in his last start and is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts this season against his former team.
The teams have played under the total in six of their last eight meetings.
Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies expected a lift when they signed the veteran righthander, but no one in the organization could have imagined a spotless record after five starts.
Philadelphia has won all five games started by Martinez, who has had two abbreviated outings but appears to be getting stronger. He allowed one run and five hits with nine strikeouts in seven innings in his last start, outdueling Tim Lincecum.
"You can see that he knows what he's doing and he's not just winging it up there hoping that he's getting outs," Lincecum told the Phillies' web site. "He's pitching with a purpose. He knows how to get guys out."
Martinez has 23 strikeouts and just three walks in 23 innings.
Brian Duensing (2-1, 3.81), Minnesota Twins
The Twins might have a better chance of catching the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central if they had showed more patience with their rookie lefthander as a starter, which has been his role since entering the organization in 2005.
Called up for good in early July, Duensing did mop-up relief work before being given a start July 29. He allowed two homers in five innings and was sent back to the pen, where he again was ineffective.
In 30 1-3 innings as a reliever, Duensing had 20 strikeouts, 16 walks and three homers allowed.
Duensing got another start Aug. 22 and has stayed in the rotation. In three starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. In 19 innings, he has 18 strikeouts, four walks and no homers allowed.
Returning
Bruce Chen (1-6, 5.24), Kansas City Royals
The veteran lefthander won his first game in nearly four years on Aug. 6, then was bumped from the rotation when Gil Meche returned from back spasms.
Chen has made five relief appearances since, allowing at least a run in each but stretching out to work four innings with 70 pitches on Sept. 2.
After pitching just 10 total innings in 2007 and 2008 due to arm problems, Chen is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA as a starter this season, allowing opposing hitters to hit .304.
Slumping
Rick VandenHurk (2-2, 4.91), Florida Marlins
The 6-5 righthander has alternated good and bad starts in his last four outings and is due for a bad one.
On Aug. 5 at Washington, he gave up three homers and five earned runs in four innings. On Aug. 16 vs. Colorado, he surrendered three homers and six earned runs.
since returning in late July from elbow surgery, VandenHurk has been ripped for nine homers in just 36 2-3 innings.
Billy Buckner (2-6, 8.29), Arizona Diamondbacks
The righthander's last start marked his return from a mid-season demotion, but he picked up where he left off, losing his fifth straight outing.
During that stretch, Buckner has an 11.09 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP and has given up seven homers in 24 1-3 innings, including at least one in each start.
Inside The Lines 9/8
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