Football tutor: Teddy's NFC betting tidbits
By TED SEVRANSKY - Direct From Vegas: Sports Investing for long term profits
Teddy spends every Sunday typing furiously at his laptop as he watches the games, giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week he passes along his observations on a few NFC teams.
San Francisco Bay Blues
Dre Bly is penciled in as the starting cornerback opposite Nate Clements, with Walt Harris out for the season. Don’t forget Bly was a big part of the Broncos late season collapse last December; a weak link in the secondary.
Barry Sims is now the projected starting right tackle, another area of weakness. This offense isn't very sexy - a dink and dunk short passing game with mediocre receivers and one of the weaker starting quarterbacks in the league will do that.
Bucs man sinking ship
It’s hard to be impressed with Byron Leftwich. He's holding the ball way too long, the cause of his problems throughout his career, and he's throwing the ball too high and hard. He missed open receivers, while delivering almost as many crisp throws that were right on the money. That’s too inconsistent for my betting blood.
Watch for early season special teams miscues - based on this performance, new head coach Raheem Morris hasn't put a ton of emphasis on special teams just yet.
Born to run
The Arizona defense was tremendous, picking up right where it left off in the playoffs thanks to a fierce pass rush. We definitely saw more of a push up front from the running game here. Tim Hightower was far more productive than he was at any point last year and Beanie Wells looks like another true running back stud. Expect this offense to be far more two dimensional in ’09.
Falcons to soar over total lines this season
Atlanta has a very young secondary and it showed. On one drive, the Falcons allowed four separate third down conversions of a dozen yards or longer, including a touchdown pass on third and 24.
The secondary got torched repeatedly, despite being in excellent down-and-distance situations.
Atlanta has all the makings of a real over bet team this year. The club owes a potent offense and a suspect defense. Very impressed with the skill position talent here - they are loaded with playmakers. We're not going to see a sophomore slump from Matt Ryan.
Giant void in New York
The red zone offense has been a problem throughout the preseason, just as it was a problem down the stretch for the G-Men last year. Will these young receivers step up? As a group, they did fine catching little slants, but Steve Smith dropped a potential 90 yard touchdown catch on the Giants first shot downfield. Manning's interception came on a perfectly thrown ball that Domenick Hixon couldn't reel in. The departed WR duo of Burress and Toomer had 263 career starts. Entering ’09, the Giants have 19 career starts returning from the entire receiving corps.
Toothless Lions
This defense looks awful, particularly against the pass. Just like last week (and last year), there are wide open receivers downfield on nearly every passing play. And, just like last year, Detroit was down by a couple of touchdowns by the end of the first quarter.
Matthew Stafford threw a pick on his first pass attempt against a first-string defense and almost threw another pick on his second pass attempt. RB Kevin Smith was hit repeatedly in the backfield and was unable to find room to run. Don’t be fooled by any preseason final scores – with the starters on the field, the Lions looked like the worst team in the league.
Same old Saints
The No. 1 ranked offense last year scored three touchdowns on three drives with the starters on the field. But the starting defense looks much like last year's - soft, with lots of missed tackles. They were particularly vulnerable stopping the run right up the gut, between the tackles. The cornerbacks looked a bit better, with a healthy Tracy Porter back in the lineup and Darren Sharper can still defend the pass as well as most safeties in the league.
Drowning birds
The Seahawks offensive line isn't opening up any holes for the running game at all, bad news for new coordinator Greg Knapp's ball control offense. They miss O-linemen Walter Jones and Chris Spencer. Mike Wahle retired before training camp, meaning that we’re looking at three new OL starters to open the season.
I'm not impressed with the defensive line either. The unit allowed chunks of yardage on the ground against a team with a limited downfield passing game.
Will kicking be a problem here? Three FG attempts missed between Olindo Mare and Brandon Coutu.
Week 1 of the pro football season kicks off Thursday, when Pittsburgh hosts Tennessee in the primetime opener. The NFL is known as the toughest sport to beat by most professional gamblers and some shy away from it all together. Handicapping with confidence and starting off the season strong can only help one build their bankroll.
With that being said, we’re going back to the well and talking about two trends that are directly related to the last game of the previous season, the Super Bowl, and the opening week of the upcoming campaign.
In case you forgot, the Steelers defeated the Cardinals 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa Bay. The victory for Pittsburgh gave the franchise a record sixth Super Bowl win. The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com believe Mike Tomlin’s crew has a good chance to repeat this year, tabbing the club as a 10/1 choice to win SBXLIV from Miami, Fl on Feb. 7, 2010.
Even though some teams play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champions haven’t fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!
Nine years and counting, the defending Super Bowl champion has won in Week 1. Okay, that number might not impress you too much but did you know they own a 7-1-1 record against the spread during that span too?
Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2008)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 30-20 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)
The last defending champion to win and not cover was St. Louis in 2007. The Rams defeated the Broncos 41-36 but failed to cover as seven-point home favorites. Sticking with Denver, it fell to Miami 38-21 in Week 1 of the 1999 season, which was the last time the defending champs lost their opener after winning the Super Bowl in the previous year.
Pittsburgh can keep the trend rolling with a victory against Tennessee on Thursday.
Sticking with the Super Bowl theme, we would feel selfish not offering up another solid angle based on the big game. It’s been just as consistent as the above trend and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week, but for the entire season.
Ten straight seasons and counting, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is 2-8 straight up and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2008)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17
Last year, New England defeated Kansas City 17-10 in Week 1 but failed to cover the 16-point number. The Patriots did lose quarterback Tom Brady for the year in the first quarter and his backup Matt Cassel played well in this game and for the season too.
Arizona faces the daunting task of busting the streak and its Week 1 matchup against San Francisco does look a tad tricky. The Cardinals have been listed as 6 ½-point home favorites, which is three points lower than the previous three meetings between the two from the desert.
In those games, San Francisco has gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at Arizona. The two losses came by an average of six points, very close to the point-spread.
According to betEd.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Smith and his team, they expect Arizona to get late action this week. “The Cardinals have received little action for their Week 1 match against the 49ers - but it's still very early to deter if the Cards will take on big action for that home game. That might have something to do with their preseason performance. We won't know for sure until later in the week, but we suspect that line will rise from 6.5,” said Smith.
The Week 1 trend of playing against the Super Bowl losers has carried on for entire seasons. In the table below, you can see that only two of the last 10 losers in the big game have made a return trip to the postseason the very next year.
SUPER BOWL LOSER - RECORD HISTORY (1999-2008)
Year Loser SU Record ATS Record Playoffs
2009 Arizona
2008 New England 11-5 9-7 No
2007 Chicago 7-9 7-9 No
2006 Seattle 10-8 8-10 Yes
2005 Philadelphia 6-10 5-11 No
2004 Carolina 7-9 10-6 No
2003 Oakland 4-12 3-10-1 No
2002 St. Louis 9-7 4-12 No
2001 N.Y. Giants 10-6 9-7 No
2000 Tennessee 13-3 6-10 Yes
1999 Atlanta 5-11 6-10 No
Even though the Pats missed the postseason in 2008, they did boast a winning record both SU and ATS.
What a lot of people forget about Arizona last year is that the club made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, some might even say they earned a trip because the NFC West was horrible. Either way, they did win three in a row in the playoffs, including a big win at Carolina.
Will the Cards rise again? We’ll find out soon enough, perhaps this Sunday.
The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.
If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Minnesota Vikings were 3-1 under the total in preseason. Sure, all the talk has been on Brett Favre and what he potentially can give them -- a star QB they have not had since Fran Tarkenton retired. But remember, Favre joins a run-first offense, one with a great offensive line and a pair of terrific RBs in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.
And don’t overlook this defense, one that was No. 1 in the NFL last season at stopping the run. Their game plan under Brad Childress is usually to get a lead and then play it safe. They carry a 4-1 run under the total into the new season.
Miami is another team that likes to play tough defense and a ball control offense under Coach Tony Sparano. The defense was No. 15 in the NFL last season, 10th against the run, and DE Jason Taylor returns after a one-year hiatus in Washington. The Dolphins are 11-6 under the total under Sparano.
The defending champion Steelers also prefer to play that style under Mike Tomlin, starting 2-1 under the total last September. And that was without a healthy backfield. For 2009, the Steelers have both RBs Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall healthy, which can only help their ball control attack.
The Steelers open the season Thursday night against Tennessee. So when was the last time the Steelers lost a game that counted? Pitt lost to the Titans last December 21st. In that game, Tomlin's men were smacked around, 31-14, turning it over four times. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 329 yards, 2 TDs and 2 picks in trying to rally the Steelers, while the Titans had 117 rush yards against the great Pittsburgh defense, No. 1 in the NFL. Veteran QB Kerry Collins remained undefeated in his career against the Steelers, improving to 3-0, as he completed 20 of 29 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown. Of course, none of that matters this week as it's a new season.
The Patriots might be a team to look at should you want to play a game 'over' the total in September. The offense gets back QB Tom Brady and there is wide receiver talent everywhere. But the defense is a question mark. The secondary was weak last year and has new looks all over. They struggled often in preseason, as well. Tedy Bruschi retired, plus they just traded longtime star and five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders in a surprise move. Seymour, just 29, led the team with eight sacks last season. Since Seymour joined the Patriots (2001), the team has allowed an average of 17.8 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL over that span.
The Eagles and Panthers hook up in Week 1 Sunday, two teams that are far better than they looked in preseason. Forget about Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick -- Donovan McNabb is the quarterback of the Eagles, and he should be. Their passing offense will be interesting to watch in September as they added speedy WR DeSean Jackson last year and rookie WR Jeremy Maclin this season.
The Broncos are a team to look at – and maybe shield your eyes. They look thin everywhere for new coach Josh McDaniels. And who is the starting quarterback? QB Kyle Orton dislocated his finger and Chris Simms has a sprained ankle, so all that is left is rookie QB Tom Brandstater. McDaniels said there is a possibility that Orton and Simms could miss the first regular season game. Why again did they run Mike Shanahan out of town? Denver football fans will be asking that in December, if not sooner.
The N.Y. Jets might be the biggest question mark of all. They have a new coach in Rex Ryan -- an outspoken guy who ran the Baltimore defense the last few years -- plus rookie QB Mark Sanchez. He looked decent in preseason, but those games don't count. I can only think of the words of his college coach, Pete Carroll, who felt Sanchez should stay at USC another year because he wasn’t ready for the pros. Carroll said, "The facts are so strong against this decision....he should've stayed for another year." Maybe Carroll will be proved right, but after watching Oklahoma's QB Sam Bradford get injured yesterday, it's rarely a bad decision to take that much money when it's on the table.
We do know that NY offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's game planning will depend on Sanchez's ability to handle the mental aspect of his job. If he plays well, they will open the offense up. If the kid struggles, you will likely see more emphasis on running the football. Stay tuned. The best time of the sports calendar heats up this week!
Top 10 home field advantages in pro football
By SCOTT RICKENBACH - CPA's skills: money management and sharp line analysis
It's an unwritten rule in NFL handicapping that the home field is worth three points to the hosting club. But astute football bettors want more than just a rule of thumb.
Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach did a little digging and came up with a power poll of the home advantages for every team in the league. He's attached a number to be used any time the team involved is playing in its own stadium.
We'll reveal the worst home-field edges next week. Let's take a peek at which clubs received the biggest leg up playing in front of their home crowd.
Seattle Seahawks (4.5): Qwest Field claims keeps a sign up which reads “12th man” for the contributions the vocal home fans make for the Seahawks. Seattle is 35-13 straight up over the last six seasons at the uniquely loud field. The team was terrible last season, but don’t forget it went 6-2 against the spread at home in two of the previous three seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4.5): The Steelers are 47-16-1 in their last eight seasons at Heinz Field and they’ve only been a home dog five times in their last nine seasons (they’ve covered four of those games). The ATS data isn’t as strong, but I think that has more to do with oddsmakers increasing the club’s home lines. The Yellow and Black get well-earned respect from the books and bettors at the Ketchup Bottle.
Baltimore Ravens (4.0): The Ravens make their home edge count. As a home dog they’ve only been about a 50-50 proposition this decade but as a home fave they’re own a 36-16-2 ATS mark. They draw well at M&T Bank Stadium and they’ve won at least six home games in all but two of the last nine seasons.
San Diego Chargers (4.0): Here’s another team that benefits from being out West. Teams to the Left Coast rarely come up with their best performance. The Bolts are 26-13-1 ATS over the last five seasons in at home games. Last season was a bit of an aberration because of injuries, but prior to 2008, San Diego had won at least seven of its eight home games straight up in three of the four campaigns.
Minnesota Vikings (4.0): A new stadium is on the way but the Vikes may end up missing the dome. The Purple People Eaters are 47-25 straight-up there in this decade. Minny holds just a 50 percent ATS record this decade in friendly confines, a sign that oddsmakers are on top of the added edge the team holds at the Metrodome.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.0): The Bucs are a much stronger home team than road team. They’ve gone at least 6-2 in three of the last four seasons at Raymond James Stadium. They’re also 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 times they’ve been a home dog. Tampa Bay is averaging 2.4 more home wins than road wins over the last five seasons.
New England Patriots (4.0): The Pats have gone undefeated on their home field in three of the last six seasons. Their glory years of covering the spread in home games were 2003 and 2004. Since then, they’ve been mediocre at home from an ATS standpoint. Still, their 39-9 straight-up mark at home over the last six seasons shows how well they play in Gillette Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals (3.5): The Cards play their home games at University of Phoenix Stadium which opened in August of 2006. The first season it wasn’t a big edge but Arizona was a 5-11 team at the time. The true value has been demonstrated over the last two years. The club is 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS over that period in the desert.
New York Giants (3.5): Unlike the Jets, the Giants seem to know how to get the most out of Giants Stadium. They are 19-13 ATS there the last four seasons and in two of those seasons they lost just once game straight-up. The Giants handle the elements much better than their opponents when the winds are swirling at the Meadowlands. Kicking can be especially troublesome for clubs that don’t have much experience in the conditions.
Houston Texans (3.5): Ask almost any opponent and they’ll tell you, the Texans are much tougher to face at Reliant Stadium than when you get them in your own house. Houston has gone 6-2 straight up at Reliant Stadium each of the last two seasons while going just 2-6 on the road. The Texans are also 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Sports bettors never cease to be impressed by the accuracy of NFL pointspreads.
Those who make the numbers, such as Las Vegas icon Jimmy Vaccaro, don’t understand what all the fuss is about.
Although spreads for Week 1 in the NFL have been on the board for several months, Vaccaro said there has been little cause to warrant a significant adjustment on any particular game.
“For guys who make numbers, this is not rocket science,” said Vaccaro, director of sports operations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book. “The numbers they come up with are very solid to begin with. From where we started to where we are now, nothing major has changed.”
Perhaps the biggest surprise thus far is an unlikely contrast between where the action has come from and where it hasn’t. Vaccaro said early NFL line movement was prompted by a couple of unlikely sources.
The Cincinnati Bengals have moved from -2 to -3.5 for their opening day home game against the Denver Broncos. It is a surprising change, Vaccaro noted, for a game involving two teams he expects to struggle.
“For a lot of reasons, it looks like the Broncos are in for a down season,” said Vaccaro, noting the trade of quarterback Jay Cutler and inexperience of first-year coach Josh McDaniels. “The Bengals are looking to bounce back, but you’re betting on Carson Palmer, who’s barely played one down in the exhibition season, and hasn’t played at all in nearly a year.”
Another move that caught Vaccaro’s attention was a steam on the Dallas Cowboys that moved the line from -3 to -4.5 when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
“Now, I think the Cowboys are a 9-7 team,” Vaccaro said. “But we took a (big) bet on them, so we have to adjust to reflect that.”
By contrast, Minnesota’s signing of quarterback Brett Favre did little to change the oddsmaker’s view of the Vikings’ Week 1 visit to the Cleveland Browns. Although the opening number has moved from Minnesota -2.5 to – 3.5, most of the Vikings money already was in the register before No. 4 pulled on a purple jersey.
“The Vikings got a little attention after the Favre thing,” Vaccaro said. “However, we didn’t want to screw with that number too much.”
Philadelphia’s high-profile signing of troubled quarterback Michael Vick hasn’t had much influence on the Eagles’ Week 1 trip to face the Carolina Panthers. The game opened as a pick’em and has seen plenty of two-way action, Vaccaro said. The Panthers are now at -1 in his sports book.
Another line oddsmakers are wary of moving is the NFL’s season-opener between the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Tennessee Titans, who had the league’s best regular-season record last year at 13-3. The Steelers opened as a 5-point favorite and currently sit at -5.5.
“We knew from the start that we couldn’t make the Steelers any higher than -6,” Vaccaro said. “Anything else would provide a bargain on the Titans, and there would be some smart guys waiting to jump on it.”
Week 1 concludes with a pair of prime-time games that already have seen some substantial action, and Vaccaro anticipates strong sentiment for the favorite in both. The New England Patriots, bolstered by the return of Tom Brady at quarterback, have moved from -10 to -10.5 over the visiting Buffalo Bills and the San Diego Chargers, who opened as a 7-point chalk, have moved to a 9-point favorite over the host Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.
In each case, the movement has as much to do with the futility of the underdog as the strength of the chalk, Vaccaro said. The Bills have fired their offensive coordinator after their no-huddle offense morphed into a no-offense huddle, and there are rumors that coach Dick Jauron’s job is in imminent jeopardy. The Raiders, outscored 76-28 in their past two exhibition games, have looked as though they believe the preseason is one long non-contact drill.
“You’ll see money on the Patriots until they prove everyone wrong,” Vaccaro said. “Brady looks OK; Terrell Owens hasn’t played, and Trent Edwards has looked horrendous. It’s possible the line could close at 11.5 or 12.
“The Raiders really have been dismal, and the Chargers might be healthier than they have been in a long time. The line is at 9 now, but might close at 10 or higher. We’re still waiting to take a bet on them.”
Vaccaro hasn’t had to wait to see plenty of public sentiment against woeful clubs such as the Raiders and the Detroit Lions, who went winless last season. The Lions, who have named top draft pick Matthew Stafford as their opening-day quarterback, opened as 11-point underdogs to the New Orleans Saints. The line has moved to New Orleans -13, and the oddsmaker said he wouldn’t be surprised to see it close at -14.
“People always like to bet against teams that finished bad last year and hope that it will carry over,” Vaccaro said. “You always know bettors will show a predominance of the left side of the parlay card (where favorites are listed) against bad teams.”
Rounding out the Week 1 NFL slate is a slew of games that haven’t received a significant amount of action on either side.
They include the Miami Dolphins against the Atlanta Falcons (opened: Falcons -4.5; current: -4); Baltimore Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs (opened: Ravens -8.5; current: off because of injury to Matt Cassel); Houston Texans against the New York Jets (opened: Texans -4; current: Texans -4.5); Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts (opened: Colts -7; current: Colts -7); Arizona Cardinals against the San Francisco 49ers (opened: Cardinals -6.5; current: Cardinals -6.5); New York Giants against the Washington Redskins (opened: Giants -6; current: Giants -6.5); Seattle Seahawks against the St. Louis Rams (opened: Seahawks -7; current: Seahawks -7.5); Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears (opened: Packers -3; current: Packers -3.5).
NfL 9/8
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